FanDuel PGA: Top Picks – The 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Welcome to this edition of FanDuel PGA Picks from FantasyCPR.com. Here you will find players to target for this weeks Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard, taking place at Bay Hill Club and Lodge, in Bay Hill, Florida, just outside of Orlando.

In this article, I will present to you some Fantasy Golf players to consider from each price tier for FanDuel PGA. Some plays will be geared toward cash games, and some for GPP tournaments. Some of course will also technically qualify as both. As we break each play down, I will be sure to specify which type of contests I am targeting that player in.

I will give two players to target from $11K up to the top salary, two targets from the $10K-$11K range, and two from the $9-10K range. After that will come my top value plays from the $8-9K range, along with a couple of GPP flyers to consider for tournament play.

Last but certainly not least, I will end the article the ever popular sample lineup we like to do here at FantasyCPR. Before we get to all that, let’s check out how things fared with last week’s sample lineup!

FanDuel PGA: The 2019 Honda Classic Recap:

G – Adam Scott – $10,800 – (19.9)
G – Michael Thompson – $10,100 – (71.3)
G – Webb Simpson – $10,600 – (54.1)
G – Scott Piercy – $10,000 – (16.7)
G – Lucas Glover – $9,700 – (86.3)
G – Cheng-Tsung Pan – $8,600 – (13)

                                                                (261.3)

Ugly. That is only word available to describe PGA DFS last week. It was bound to happen sooner or later with the positive run that I have been on, because golf is such a fluky DFS game, and anything can happen. Not sure about you, but everywhere I looked on Twitter it was a rough week across the board for most. But nonetheless, we get right back to it and study up for the following week.

While I was really tilting Pan mostly as I really thought he was a fine play last week, the more the weekend drug on, I started to remember why Adam Scott is always risky for DFS. Despite the limited field, I can obviously admit glaring mistakes were made. The most obvious being that Scott is simply never “safe” for cash games.

I finished somewhere between 65th and 75th out of 100-man cash games last week, so it’s time to start another winning streak once again. I feel really good about the old “Stars and Scrubs” strategy this week, so let’s dig right in for the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

FanDuel PGA: Top Tier Picks: ($11,000+)

Rory McIlroy – $12,200 – (Cash)

With all of the value staring us in the face this week at Bay Hill, it is safe to assume at this point that everybody’s top cash play this week is Rory McIlroy. My guess is he will be well over 50% owned, and with how it easy it is to fit him in, I get it.

McIlroy is the defending champ here at Bay Hill, as he just demolished this course last year en route to a score of 18-under par. On top of the win here last year, he also tied for fourth in 2017, so it is safe to say he finds some serious comfort on this course.

Also, there may be nobody in better form as of late. We know victories are always elusive for McIlroy, but a top-five seems almost like a given. In his last four events on tour, he has finished no worse than T-5th, and he is coming off of a solo second place finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship. McIlroy is your top chalk for cash games, eat it up.

Justin Rose – $12,100 – (Cash/GPP)

I mentioned value right away and will continue to discuss it throughout this article. There are so many options below $9K that I like this week, that I LOVE the idea of using BOTH Rory and Rose in cash. While I do feel McIlroy is the favorite, and it is only $100, Rose should cost more of your salary in my opinion, but that is neither here nor there.

I do not think Rose will be ignored in cash games as he shouldn’t be, but those who seek balance on a weekly basis may miss this one this week. I found it rather easy to fit both in a lineup this week, and my guess is both will be right in it on Sunday.

Rose very quietly fell to number two in the OWGR last week, even though he was victorious in his last outing. The only reason why is simply because Rose hasn’t been playing much lately. That last action and win came at the end of January at the Farmers Insurance Open, when Rose found himself 15-under through two days, and went on to finish 21-under and rack up the FanDuel points.

I am sure Rose is aware he fell out of the top spot once again by a nose to Dustin Johnson, and my guess is he is fired up to reclaim the top spot.

***Also Consider: Jason Day $11,700 – Bryson DeChambeau $11,200***

FanDuel PGA: Mid Tier Picks: ($10,000 – $11,000)

Marc Leishman – $10,800 – (Cash)

Leishman skipped the Honda Classic last week, after a very disappointing start to the WGC-Mexico Championship two weeks ago. It was an ugly Thursday and Friday for Leishman, as he ended up +10 after the two rounds. He salvaged the tournament a little on Saturday shooting 2-under, and ended up finishing T-62 at +9 out of the 71 golfers that finished the tournament.

My suggestion even after that debacle is that Leishman is still very much cash safe this week. The elevation was rough on a lot of these guys, and Leishman was another golfer who looked like he just wasn’t having much fun or feeling very great overall. Throw the WGC-Mexico out the window in my opinion, and focus on the fact that Leishman won here two years ago in 2017. He putts the lights out on these lightning fast Bermuda grass greens, and conditions this week look similar to the way they were in 2017.

Ian Poulter – $10,100 – (GPP)

Poulter might be the best player that is completely under the radar right now. Of course as the week goes on, maybe talk will pick up a bit, but much like McIlroy, Poulter is playing some amazing golf without quite taking one down. Unlike others, Poulter was unaffected by the elevation in Mexico, as he fired four straight rounds under par, finishing at 11-under par, and tying for third place.

The reason he may be a little deceptive this week is as follows. If you pull up the game log on FanDuel, you see Poulter has gone T-3, T-33rd, 18th, 21st, and T-10th in his last five PGA Tour events. What you don’t see is that this is not Poulter’s complete schedule. He was red hot on the European Tour prior to the WGC-Mexico, and his last four starts actually look like this… T-6, T-3, T-6, T-3. Don’t be fooled by game logs. The information is out there.

***Also Consider: Tommy Fleetwood $10,600 – Lucas Glover $10,000***

FanDuel PGA: Low Tier Picks: ($9,000 – $10,000)

Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $9,900 – (Cash/GPP)

We all know by now if you have read this article weekly that I am a course horse guy without a doubt, but the same can be said when it comes to recent form. I always highlight how my targets have done at this weeks particular event in the past, as well as how they have been playing lately. But most importantly, is what their salary is, relative to how good they look on paper. Another golfer that skipped the Honda Classic last week and always looks great on paper is Rafa Cabrera-Bello. RCB is always a lock for me on FanDuel when he is under $10K.

With eight top-25’s under his belt in his last nine starts, the form is there without question. He has played mostly on the European Tour throughout his career, and this will be his first trip to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With his recent track record and with the way he fought back from a rough first round in Mexico to T-19th, I think RCB is right in it this week.

Matt Wallace – $9,000 – (GPP)

More of a flyer here, but there are just so many solid plays in this price range, another European Tour top dog like Matt Wallace here could easily go overlooked. I also love Brian Gay at this exact same price as he is the safer play with that solid putter, but Wallace could be a great ownership leverage play for tournaments.

I am not exactly sure how long these European Tour players will be in Florida, but once again we have another week where they are all under priced, compared to where they would be in a less loaded field. Wallace T-20 last week at the Honda Classic, and his best finish in 2019 thus far after three wins on the European Tour last year, was his solo second place at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. I won’t be going crazy on this one, but this is likely a solid sub 10% ownership play for the large field GPP’s, as I expect another top-25 at the very least.

***Also Consider: Hao-Tong Li – $9,400 – Brian Gay – $9,000***

FanDuel PGA: Top Value Picks: (Below $9,000)

Nate Lashley – $8,500 – (Cash)

I find it very tough to not cheer for guys like this. The 36-year-old is basically playing for his livelihood as he continues on his medical exemption after skipping the Honda Classic. He of course did not make the field for the WGC-Mexico, but continued his solid stretch of play in Puerto Rico instead, where he notched a top-10 finish.

He has now made six straight cuts since the Safeway Open back in October with his limited chances, but with four top-20’s in those six starts, Lashley is giving it his all without question. This will be his debut at Bay Hill, but I feel confident enough that he makes another cut, therefore he makes my cash lineup.

Danny Lee – $8,300 – (GPP)

Putting enough confidence in Lee for cash games is tough, no doubt. But after being burned badly by that mid-tier group I fall in love in with every week finally, I just don’t see it this week. Sure I like Poulter, and Leishman, and even Fleetwood and Glover, but we just have way too many viable plays under $9K this week.

He hasn’t been perfect at Bay Hill in his history, and his recent form isn’t great, but neither are bad either. Over the last five years at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Lee has missed two cuts, but also notched two top-20’s as well. As far as form goes, he has been basically hit or miss since his solo second place finish at the Mayakoba Classic in November. He is coming off a T-36 at the Honda Classic, and has made seven cuts in his last nine events.

I put the GPP tag on him because this isn’t safe. It’s Danny Lee. If you like the idea but are scared of this one, give Ernie Els some consideration at $200 less. Yes he is a dinosaur, but he is lights out with the putter right now, and is yet another cheap option that keeps making cuts at the very least.

***Bonus GPP Flyers: Talor Gooch $8,800 – JT Poston $8,600 – Ernie Els $8,100***

FanDuel PGA: The 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Sample Lineup

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides. It is not an optimal line-up. It is in fact, just a “Sample Lineup.” 

G – Rory McIlroy – $12,200
G – Justin Rose – $12,100
G – Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $9,900
G – Brian Gay – $9,000
G – Nate Lashley – $8,500
G – Danny Lee – $8,300

Going to take the stars and scrubs approach in cash this week. In my opinion, some of these value plays this week just make so much sense that is hard not to take two of the best players in the world here in Rory and Rose. Lee has good history here, Gay is one of the best putters in the world, and Lashley is perfect making cuts this season. There are plenty of good plays this week so it should be a fun one. Let’s get back on track!

That is all for this weeks FanDuel PGA Picks for the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational. If you have any questions, give me a follow on Twitter with the link at the top of the article.

You can also leave a question right here in the comments, and I will do my best to respond before lock Thursday morning. Thank you for reading, and may your golf tilt be minimal this weekend!