NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday, March 5 – Time for Beastbrook!
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
On a slate with Giannis, LeBron and The Joker, raise your hand if you knew that Rajon Rondo and Kelly Oubre Jr. would be the top two raw point plays on Monday’s NBA DFS slate? OK put your hand down liar. With only 5 players in total pushing past the 50 fantasy point mark and none going for over 60, we saw winning GPP scores fall short of 350 fantasy points and the cash line sat in the 280-290 range as a result of lower than usual fantasy output which gave you the chance to scrape by even with scores that on a normal night would be far outside the cash position.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Tuesday’s Slate Breakdown and a Free Roll!
Before we get into Tuesday’s six game slate, our friends at FantasyDraft have been kind enough to sponsor another Picks and Pivots $50 Free Roll for all your NBA fans in addition to the Picks and Divots PGA DFS free roll they have rolled out the last two weeks. If you guys are not playing on FantasyDraft, this is a great way to give their platform a try to build up that bankroll heading into MLB season in just a few short weeks!
Looking at this six game slate at first glance, you will notice if you check the Vegas data that we only have two of the six games with lines and we have a whole heap of news we need to wait on so let’s start right there!
Sixers – Joel Embiid and Boban both remain out while Amir Johnson and Jonah Bolden are questionable. Jimmy Butler was not on the official injury report but did sit out practice Monday with lower back tightness which is the news we really need to wait for in this one.
Thunder – Once again this one all comes down to the status of Paul George who has missed three straight games with a shoulder injury.
Grizzlies – Memphis will be without Jaren Jackson Jr and Kyle Anderson once again while Ivan Rabb is questionable to play. Mike Conley is not listed on the injury report.
Warriors – Klay Thompson is the big piece to watch here as he is questionable to play after getting an MRI on his knee yesterday.
So, we have a few key injury spots to monitor which could completely change this slate which outside of the injury news has some less than appealing metrics. Consider this – 10 of the 12 teams in action see a neutral or negative pace environment with only Minnesota and Orlando seeing a projected pace boost here tonight.
Alright, so we have essentially no Vegas data, a ton of injury unknowns and a bunch of slow-paced games to sort through – who is excited?
NBA DFS – Which Studs to Build Around?:
I am fascinated to see how the ownership for Russell Westbrook ($19.8K) plays out here tonight with Paul George potentially out for the fourth game in a row against Minnesota. The first game PG13 missed against Philadelphia, Westbrook was over 80% owned in GPP play but by Sunday against Memphis, that ownership had dropped by over half, sitting in the mid 30% range and has failed to top 50 fantasy points in two of his last three games.
The story with Westbrook has always been – if the other star is out, you do everything you can to jam him in – dating back to the Kevin Durant days and applying the same logic to life with Paul George in OKC.
Take the game logs out of it for a second – what exactly is Russ not doing with PG13 off the court that we all expected? He has a 35% usage rate these last three games while shooting the ball over 20 times per game and people want to jump off?
Russ has just shot poorly the last three games at 36% which is substantially below his 43% carer mark and 42% mark this year. Westbrook has put up 57 and 60 fantasy points in his two previous meetings with Minnesota this season, both of which PG13 was active for, so why exactly are we all ready to abandon ship?
This is one of those process over results arguments for me – ignore the fantasy game logs, you have Westbrook under $20K likely without PG13 and if the ownership is staying at sub 40%, then I want in!
The other interesting aspect to Westbrook tonight – James Harden ($19.8K) is the exact same price, giving you a clear pivot who is averaging a cool 80 fantasy points the last two games. The match-up with Toronto is not overly appealing but Harden is Harden, match-ups simply do not matter. It is worth noting, Harden was held under 50 fantasy points in the earlier match-up with Toronto this season.
Switching to the big men – Karl-Anthony Towns ($18.9K) has put up 70+ fantasy points in 3 of this last 4 games but has struggled against OKC in two previous meeting this season, putting up only 33 FPTS in each game against Steven Adams and company.
Nikola Vucevic ($16.7K) may end up being the better big man to pay up for tonight against a Philly front-line that, well using the term banged-up may be an understatement. Vuc has gone for 50+ in four of his last six games which is all he “needs” to hit value at this price point and without Embiid/Boban in the middle, the path for upside on this price seems quite clear.
Takeaway – Oddly enough, it feels like there may be more “easy arguments” against the stars tonight than we are used to. The recent game logs for Westbrook are underwhelming and guys like KAT and Harden have had floor type games against their opponents already this season. With those easy to pick off nuggets – I wonder if the masses will take a fade the stars approach tonight?
NBA DFS – Finding Our Value:
I started the last page asking you which stud to pay up for and frankly, any of Westbrook, Harden, KAT or VUC is in play (as they always are) but what if I argued that you did not have to choose. What if – you played all four of them?
Yes, there is a salary cap and yes, on FantasyDraft it is actually possible to plug-in all four and you still have $6.2K per player for the last four spots in your build.
As I always do in Picks and Pivots, I like to talk you through roster build ideas rather than simply listing out the plays so can we actually go Super Stars and Scrubs here tonight with $6.2K per player for the last 4 spots on our team?
Tyreke Evans ($6.2K) – Remember when Victor Oladipo went down and we all went into the next slate or few slates and simply plugged in Tyreke Evans who we all assumed we take on the heavy usage and FP/M role we have seen him take on so many times before? Well that has not exactly played itself out and Evans is clearly stuck in a bench role behind guys like Darren Collison, Wes Matthews and Cory Joseph.
Evans is likely going to play around 20 minutes but here is the key – he gets to face the Bulls, a team he has averaged 20 minutes and 18 FPTS against this season in games that Oladipo actually played. We saw the kind of point per minute upside that Evans has just a few games back when he put up 33 fantasy points in 17 minutes versus the Pelicans and this match-up could easily replicate that ceiling with minimal risk.
What happens to the Sixers with Embiid/Boban out and Jimmy Butler dealing with a back injury? Is it possible T.J. McConnell ($6K) steps into the starting lineup or an expanded role?
What about the Warriors? We mentioned that Klay Thompson is questionable but we also know that Kevon Looney is OUT while Andre Igoudala is questionable. Alfonzo McKinnie ($6K) would likely draw the start against for Golden State and even someone like Damion Lee would be interesting if Iggy is out after playing 25 minutes off the bench last game.
If you are looking for punt plays with minutes safety – then Terrance Ferguson ($6.2K) is your man. Ferguson has played 35, 37 and 38 minutes the last three games with PG13 out so you know the minutes are there despite the lack of fantasy production. The silver lining? Ferguson put up 23 FPTS against Minnesota the last time they faced off. At the same price point, Abdel Nader ($6.2K) has actually been the better fantasy producer off the bench with PG13 out, putting up 24 fantasy points against Memphis last game out while playing 20+ minutes for the second straight game.
With the Grizzlies banged up again tonight, CJ Miles ($6K) looks like he has another clear path to run after back to back games of 26 minutes while averaging over 18 fantasy points per game.
Speaking of volatile bench scorers – Rodney Hood ($6.6K) is coming off a monster 35 fantasy point performance off the bench for Portland where he shot 9-14, scoring 24 points all in the second half.
I think the common theme here is that most of the guys in this price range are going to give you around 20 minutes and there are a few here who have 20+ fantasy points upside which is exactly what you are looking at from these punts.
The key to making you feel good about this build I think is watching the injury news. If we get Klay/Iggy out for Golden State and/or Jimmy Butler out for Philly, I think we can get 1-2 punt starters here like McKinnie/McConnell at stone minimum while taking shots on high upside, albeit volatile plays, like Tyreke Evans and Rodney Hood.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup.
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Stars
G: Russell Westbrook
G: James Harden
F/C: Karl-Anthony Towns
F/C: Nikola Vucevic
Scrubs
G: Tyreke Evans
F/C: Alfonzo McKinnie
UTIL: T.J. McConnell
UTIL: Rodney Hood
Slate Overview: Heading down the stretch in NBA DFS, the one thing I look for is value and I think with so many teams leaning on load management as they head towards the playoffs or the race for Zion, we are going to uncover some unlikely value each and every day.
The mid-tier has the potential to be strong on this slate especially if someone like Butler is ruled out which would push guys like Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris into elite spots. However, I also think there is a very clear delineation tonight with four stars that sit above everyone else talent wise with Westbrook/Harden/KAT and Vuc and although I doubt any of them are going to “over-looked” – I really think the balanced build will be more popular with the “obvious value” not available. There is no chalk Alex Len type guy tonight.
The path I have laid out is not without risk and frankly, as the day goes on, if the news breaks the wrong way, going Stars and Scrubs could end up being an unrealistic path.
However, one thing I love to do is lay out a path like this early in the day and then watch as the news comes in to see if it fits. Having an idea of what an extreme Stars/Scrubs build could look like 12 hours before top is helpful to sort through as the news comes in and you start to identify players that fit the mold. Conversely, if the news does not break – do not be afraid to pivot off this idea (or any other) – you can go more balanced and take a stud or two out.
The key here – BE FLEXIBLE. The end of the NBA season is all about building frameworks and adjusting them as the day goes on and on a slate where 4 of the 6 games have no Vegas data – well, this is just a taste of what late season NBA is going to be like.
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