NCAA Basketball Bets To Win – Tuesday March 5th

Good day and greetings from your NCAA Basketball Bets to win host.  Tuesday finds 5 games where we can stay ahead of the number and put the odds in our favor.

Sunday our NCAA Basketball Bets went  4-2  advancing the overall record to  101-84-2.

For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.

Lines are very important and are key to creating value. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.

All times Eastern, here we go with our NCAA basketball bets to win:

Xavier +4  versus  Butler, 6 pm
These teams are going in opposite directions as Xavier has won and covered 5 in a row while Butler has lost their last 3 ATS and 7 of their last 10 games.  They have 1 home cover in that span.

The current power ranking is close to the actual line at 5, so Xavier is not being over-valued here in consideration of how these 2 teams are playing.  Butler is not a good bounce-back team either, as they are 1-5 ATS after a straight up loss.

Miami-Florida -6  versus  Pittsburgh, 8 pm
This is a long running trend against Pittsburgh that still has legs for today’s game.  Pittsburgh is 0-7 against the number on the road and 3-12 ATS overall.

The power rating including home field advantage is 5 1/2 yet common opponent analysis indicates a double-digit cover.  I think it’s prudent to ride this trend since we are not being overcharged on the spread.

NCAA Basketball Bets To Win – Jayhawks Road Woes Continue

Oklahoma +1  versus  Kansas, 9 pm
Kansas continues to get public backing even though their road results deserve the opposite.  They are now 1-5 ATS in their last 6 away games and have a huge home/away differential, going 15-0 straight up at home and 3-7 on the road.  Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games of their series.

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Kansas is ranked #14 but can play terribly away at times, losing at Texas Tech by 29 as a 5 point dog 3 games ago.  Oklahoma is only average at home but the power rating is so skewed that if it calculated only Kansas road games, the Sooners would be a solid favorite.

Mississippi +5  versus  Kentucky, 9 pm
The Rebels may be catching Kentucky at the right time to keep this game close or win outright.  Kentucky has badly under-performed their last 2 games having lost ATS by a combined 28 points.  Mississippi has played their last 3 games very tight  (2 points or less)  with spreads ranging from a 5 point dog to a 10 point favorite.

The power rating number is Kentucky by 7, which will keep the public on the Wildcats and hopefully keep the line from falling.  The recent play and the injury to Kentucky’s Reid Travis (questionable) is putting me on the home dog tonight.

Air Force +14  versus  Nevada, 11 pm
Nevada, after a huge winning streak, has now hit the ATS skids losing 4 in a row to the number.  Meanwhile Air Force has won 3 in a row ATS after playing poorly before.

Nevada should be a higher favorite so some of this has already been built into the spread, but I’m still looking for Air Force to keep this game in single digits.  The cautionary note here being should these 2 teams return to prior form, Nevada could destroy the Falcons, but I am on the record here with Air Force plus the points.

That’s it for today.

Good Luck To Us!