Tournament failure behind them, Virginia’s new-look offense could lead to Final Four run

The Virginia Cavaliers are poised for another No. 1 seed but don’t expect Tony Bennett’s team to experience another historic upset in the NCAA Tournament.

Tony Bennett and his Virginia Cavaliers have had the same critiques about their system of play for years. And then, in last year’s tournament, their historic upset at the hands of UMBC justified the criticism that their style of play was simply not conducive to advancing in the NCAA Tournament.

This year’s Cavaliers are aiming to dispel the notion that their slow-tempo attack can cut down the nets at the end of the tournament. Virginia has run at a snails-pace with their offense under Tony Bennett. The Cavaliers have finished in the bottom-ten of adjusted tempo in six straight years, and have the distinction of playing at the slowest adjusted tempo this season, according to Ken Pom.

Virginia’s 79-53 destruction of Syracuse on Monday night should be enough proof to convince skeptics of the Cavaliers being legitimate title contenders this upcoming tournament. The Cavaliers tied a school record of 18 three-pointers made in a game as well as setting the record for most 3-pointers made against Syracuse.

Syracuse has run their 2-3 zone defense for over 30 years and had never been victimized by the three-pointer to that extent before Virginia. That statistic is almost unfathomable considering that zone defenses allow for plenty of perimeter shooting opportunities and the Cavaliers, who are stereotyped as playing too slow break a record often attributed to “fast” teams.

All of this begs the question, what is Virginia doing differently this year?

No notable schematic changes have occurred on the defensive side of the ball. Virginia still plays their suffocating Pack Line defense that dares players to shoot the ball from deep while testing teams off-ball movement competencies.

It is important to note that Virginia is the best in the country in three-point defense.  However, it should be noted (and was by Nylon Calculus), that the success of team 3-point defense is mainly a combination of randomness and luck.

Elite three-point defense definitely helps in the modern era of pace-and-space basketball, however, Virginia is showing their championship capabilities on offense.

The Cavaliers sport the nation’s second most efficient offense (and still over four points less than No. 1 Gonzaga) according to KenPom. Tony Bennett’s 2016 Cavaliers were his only other team to finish in the top-10 of offensive efficiency, where they placed eighth. The 2016 Cavaliers went on to reach the Elite Eight.

There are two main differences offensively between this year’s Cavaliers and the 2016 squad that reached the elite eight and both revolve around the three: 3-pointers attempted and percentage and running more diverse offensive actions that generate more three-point attempts.

Let’s start with the three-point shot attempts and percentage. The 2016 Cavaliers shot 557 threes according to basketball reference’s database. This year’s Cavaliers have taken 589 threes. Virginia has one more regular season game before their conference tournament and then the NCAA tournament. It is safe to say that the Cavaliers will continue to shoot 3-pointers and will blow the 2016 mark out of the water.

Both the 2016 and current Cavaliers are exceptional shooting teams. The Elite Eight Cavaliers had the 10th best three-point shooting percentage and the 2018-2019 Cavaliers have the fourth best shooting percentage. The actual percentage increase (41.4 percent vs. 40.2 percent) might not be substantial, but the higher shooting percentage combined with more attempts creates an explosive scoring ability that previous Cavalier teams have simply lacked.

Now, merely shooting more three-pointers does not automatically improve your offense. Player personnel, shot selection and offensive actions will dictate the quality of the shot taken on offense. Coach Bennett deserves credit for diversifying his offense more as opposed to purely running his Mover-Blocker offense.

This season Bennett has added several ball-screen actions that do a great job of spacing the floor. The Cavaliers ball-screen offense also keeps opposing defenses off-balance because they cannot anticipate as well what the Cavaliers will be running. Shot selection improves when defenses are a step behind because shots taken are usually more open and less contested, which almost always results with more points.

Some Virginia skeptics will likely never move past last year’s upset at the hands of UMBC, and that is okay. The Cavaliers do not have to prove anything to anyone other than themselves come tournament time. However, if you are still skeptical of Virginia’s title chances, watch another game of and witness their prowess on the perimeter before thinking they are due for another upset.