DFS NBA - The Top Salary Value Plays - Simmons Says "Pick Me"

NEW YORK, NY – MARCH 23: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts to a call in the second half against the New York Knicks during their game at Madison Square Garden on March 23, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) DFS NBA /

DFS NBA – The Breakdown

So as usually, with any DFS NBA slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary.

We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the Top Value Plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel!

For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.

This is why we’re switching up this fantasy basketball article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates. Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.

In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top-tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.

Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 10 game Fantasy Basketball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel!

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Top Tier Plays

Ben Simmons vs. Chicago Bulls

Salary: $8,900 – Needs to score 44.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (57.85 for 6.5x)

Joel Embiid is out for another two games which makes Ben Simmons in the perfect spot tonight versus the Chicago Bulls. Simmons is coming off of two big games, scoring 54.3 and 66.3 fantasy points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors. Tonight should be a cake walk for him. He’s averaging 43.9 fantasy points per game and 1.29 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 22%.

Versus the Bulls, Simmons averages a nice triple double but in a small sample size. In 4 games, Ben Simmons is averaging 20 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assist. The Bulls also give up 48.50 fantasy points to the position, allowing point guards to average 24 points, 7 assist and 6 rebounds.

Luka Doncic vs. Washington Wizards

Salary: $9,100 – Needs to score 45.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (59.15 for 6.5x)

Luka Doncic has been an absolute let down in his past two games and the reason may be due to the Mavericks tanking with five other NBA teams. No big deal. Doncic dropped 37.5 fantasy points in 26 minutes versus the Memphis Grizzlies and then 31.5 fantasy points in 29 minutes against the Brooklyn Nets. He now gets the Wizards who are so bad that he should easily be able to return at least 5x value. He’s averaging 41 fantasy points per game and 1.32 fantasy points per minute.

The Washington Wizards are giving up 39.50 fantasy points per game to the small forward position which isn’t too much. They also allow opposing small forwards to average 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist per game, almost a double double. I fully expect Doncic to bounce back in this easy match-up.

Karl Anthony-Towns vs. Detroit Pistons

Salary: $10,800 – Needs to score 54 fantasy points or more to exceed value (70.2 for 6.5x)

This season we have rotated a bunch of players on and off of the “Do Not Fade” list and Karl Anthony-Towns is now next in line. He is coming off of a huge night scoring 67 fantasy points and now he gets another nice match-up versus the Detroit Pistons. He’s currently averaging 50.1 fantasy points per game and 1.51 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 28%. Now KAT doesn’t have the most appealing stats versus Andre Drummond but I just can’t fade him.

In a small sample size of 7 games, KAT averages 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 assist versus Andre Drummond. The Pistons do give up 53.75 fantasy points to the center position. They allow them to average 23 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. It’s hard to pay up for certain players when you know they do it as consistent as players like Russell Westbrook, James Harden, or Giannis Antetokounmpo but KAT is playing at a high level.

DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Top Tier Plays

Kyrie Irving vs. Sacramento Kings

Salary: $9,400 – Needs to score 47 fantasy points or more to exceed value (61.1 for 6.5x)

Kyrie Irving finally woke up to say the least last night versus the Golden State Warriors like we expected. He gets another good match-up versus the Sacramento Kings. He’s averaging 42.91 fantasy points per game and 1.34 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 29%. Now we can easily get a bad Kyrie tonight also since the match-up seems so good.

The Sacramento Kings are currently giving up the sixth most fantasy points to the point guard position, giving up 48.72 fantasy points per game. They also allow point guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. The Kings are a very fast paced team and will make the Celtics work to stay in the game which can easily benefit Kyrie Irving.

LeBron James vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $12,700 – Needs to score 63.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (82.55 for 6.5x)

LeBron James has absolutely no one to fall back on tonight if Brandon Ingram gets ruled out as Kyle Kuzma is already out for at least a week. If LeBron shot doesn’t fall tonight then the Lakers are probably getting blown out by at least 100. But it could also mean that he because an absolute chalk play but we have 10 games to choose from. He’s averaging 51.78 fantasy points per game with a usage rate of 30%. He does have a tough match-up though versus the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets are currently giving up the fourth most fantasy points to the small forward position with 42.31 fantasy points. They also allow the opposing small forwards to average 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. James does have a very hefty price tag tonight and for good reasons, I wouldn’t expect him to hit the 6.5x value but the 5x value should be in site as he will be the only one to go to for this Lakers squad.

Nikola Jokic vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $10,900 – Needs to score 54.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (70.85 for 6.5x)

Now Jokic may have come in on Monday and finished pretty disappointing against the San Antonio Spurs as he scored just 40 fantasy points. But now he gets to face the Los Angeles Lakers who are just bad (I don’t think I’ve mentioned that yet). Jokic is averaging 47.26 fantasy points per game and 1.52 fantasy points per minute. He has been on and off since kicking off this second half of the season though. He also doesn’t have the most impressive numbers against the Lakers also.

The Los Angeles Lakers are currently giving up the fourth most fantasy points to the center position with 59.01 fantasy points. They also allow them to average 25 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. In 10 games versus the Lakers, Jokic is averaging 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assist. Just like Lebron James, Jokic is also on the very high price for tonight’s slate and can take up a good amount of what you need to build that great line.

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Mid Tier Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Atlanta Hawks

Salary: $7,600 – Needs to score 38 fantasy points or more to exceed value (49.4 for 6.5x)

LaMarcus Aldridge has had a string of good games, 4 so far, and should be able to continue it tonight to make it 5 versus the Atlanta Hawks. LMA has scored 47, 38.8, 46.5, and 34.8 fantasy points so far. He’s averaging 38.9 fantasy points per game and 1.21 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 27%.

The Atlanta Hawks are a very fast paced team which could benefit LMA and the Spurs to reach value easily. The Hawks are giving up 56.60 fantasy points to centers, while allowing them to average 22 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. As an option at center, LMA is a cheaper route to go with and should reach 5x value.

Kelly Oubre Jr. vs. New York Knicks

Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)

Kelly Oubre Jr. has been very inconsistent to say the least but when he’s on a roll, he does put together some good performances. He has scored 35.8, 30.3, and 53.8 fantasy points in his past three games. Now he gets to face the New York Knicks who slack when it comes to defending the small forward position. Oubre Jr. has a usage rate of 22% and is averaging just 26.3 fantasy points per game.

The Knicks are poor defenders versus the small forward position but also every position basically. They give up the third most fantasy points to the position with 43.37 fantasy points. They also allow them to average 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. While Oubre Jr. is not the most consistent player to target, he has been playing pretty well lately to avoid.

Derrick White vs. Atlanta Hawks

Salary: $5,400 – Needs to score 27 fantasy points or more to exceed value (35.1 for 6.5x)

This will be a major chalk play most likely and we’ll all be shocked at FantasyCPR if he isn’t. Derrick White and San Antonio Spurs offer major value in a perfect match-up versus the Atlanta Hawks. White has scored 35, 34.5, and 38 fantasy points in his past three games. He’s averaging 25 minutes per game with a usage rate of 17%. White has pushed 30 minutes or more though in his past three games which is a great sign for us.

The Atlanta Hawks are giving up the most fantasy points to the point guard position, giving up 51.66 fantasy points per game. They also allow opposing point guards to average 25 points, 8 assist, and 8 rebounds per game. White will be the fan favorite to play tonight but it’s hard to avoid him with this match-up.

DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Mid Tier Plays

DeAndre Ayton vs. New York Knicks

Salary: $8,500 – Needs to score 42.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (55.25 for 6.5x)

DeAndre Ayton has had to good performances back to back, scoring 50.5 and 45.4 fantasy points versus the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks. He now gets the New York Knicks and the rookie Mitchell Robinson. Ayton has had his ups and downs in his young season already but has been hit by injuries too. He’s averaging 35.57 fantasy points per game and 1.14 fantasy points per minute. He’s averaging 31 minutes per game also and usually makes the best of those minutes when the Phoenix Suns are rolling.

The New York Knicks are just like the Los Angeles Lakers and struggle against the center position. They give up 57.59 fantasy points to the position and allow them to average 24 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. The Knicks are another struggling team and we can expect teams to have pretty good outings versus them.

Ricky Rubio vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Salary: $7,000 – Needs to score 35 fantasy points or more to exceed value (45.5 for 6.5x)

Ricky Rubio has a great smash spot tonight versus the New Orleans Pelicans tonight who are pretty bad in defending the point guard position. Rubio is averaging 28.05 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy point per minute. He hasn’t been performing the best as he just came off of a 23.6 fantasy point versus the Pelicans and before that, 23.1 fantasy points versus the Milwaukee Bucks. He should be able to bounce back.

The New Orleans Pelicans are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to the point guard position, giving up 48.82 fantasy points. They are also allowing them to average 23 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. Even though Rubio and the Jazz have just faced the Pelicans, I still expect him to be able to return to form tonight.

Cedi Osman vs. Brooklyn Nets

Salary: $6,100 – Needs to score 30.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (39.65 for 6.5x)

Cedi Osman is at a really good price tonight and has been performing up to par very quietly. He has scored 30+ fantasy points in four of the past six games while playing near 32 minutes per game. He should be a low owned play for tonight’s slate also as we have 10 games to choose from. He’s averaging 23.50 fantasy points a game and .75 fantasy points per minute.

He gets to face a healthy Brooklyn Nets team tonight though so it will be a difficult one for the Cavaliers to stick around in. The Nets are allowing opposing small forwards to average 40.07 fantasy points per game. They also allow them to average 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Out of the three in this tier, Osman may actually be one of my favorite plays just off of the entire slate as I believe he will go low owned.

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Low Tier Plays

Tim Hardaway Jr. vs. Washington Wizards

Salary: $4,800 – Needs to score 24 fantasy points or more to exceed value (31.2 for 6.5x)

It’s very hard to play Tim Hardaway Jr. as he just doesn’t seem to be a main thing for the Dallas Mavericks but this is versus the Washington Wizards so how can I (Brian also) pass this up? He hasn’t had the best outings lately as he just scored 13.3 and 14.5 fantasy points. He barely pushes the 25 minutes mark lately.

The Washington Wizards are giving up just 40.67 fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. They allow them to average 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. But THJ is just a salary relief type guy as of recently and honestly, you can find better elsewhere but I truly like this match-up for him tonight.

Mason Plumlee vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $4,200 – Needs to score 21 fantasy points or more to exceed value (27.3 for 6.5x)

We were way off on Mason Plumlee in his last match-up when facing the San Antonio Spurs, scoring just 11 fantasy points in a lonely 14 minutes. He should have a better match-up tonight though with the “Already Out of Playoffs” Los Angeles Lakers. Plumlee is averaging 22 fantasy points per game and 1.1 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 17%.

The Los Angeles Lakers are just a bad team and it’s sad with the pieces that they have when fully healthy. The Lakers are currently giving up the fourth most fantasy points to centers, giving up 59.89 fantasy points per game. They allow them to average 25 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. You can easily go with any big man from the Denver team and get your 5x value easily.

Malik Beasley vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $4,300 – Needs to score 21.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (27.95 for 6.5x)

Sticking with the Denver Nuggets, Malik Beasley is also in line for a pretty good match-up. He’s currently averaging just 19.2 fantasy points per game and .80 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 17%. He’s also coming off of a good game versus the San Antonio Spurs, scoring 26.3 fantasy points in 22 minutes.

The Lakers, like I mentioned above and will mention again, are a really bad team this season so lets exploit them. They are giving up 47.44 fantasy points to the point guard position currently. They are also allowing point guards to average 23 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. While Beasley is averaging 22 minutes per game, he should be able to reach that 5x value ceiling tonight.

DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Low Tier Plays

Gordon Hayward vs. Sacramento Kings

Salary: $4,500 – Needs to score 22.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.25 for 6.5x)

Gordon Hayward has been pretty bad lately but is coming off of a huge game versus the Golden State Warriors, scoring 50.4 fantasy points off of 27 minutes of play. Since the second half of the season kicked off, Hayward has only broken 20 fantasy points once (20.4 versus Houston) and then last nights major game. He’s also only averaging 23.50 fantasy points per game and .94 fantasy points per minute. He’s a low-priced back up guy for a reason. But with the past two games showing some slight improvement, facing the Kings could be great for him.

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The Sacramento Kings are a fast paced team trying to break into the playoffs as the 8th seed so this match-up should be good all the way around on both ends. The Kings are allowing opposing small forwards to average 21 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assist, plus give up 41.64 fantasy points to the position. As long as this game stays close, Hayward should see his minutes stay the same and give him more opportunities to reach his 5x to 6.5x value.

Damyean Dotson vs. Phoenix Suns

Salary: $4,300 – Needs to score 21.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (27.95 for 6.5x)

This Knicks and Suns game could be heavily target which could make a lot of these value guys like Damyean Dotson, chalk. Dotson is coming off of a poor performance of just 18.3 fantasy points versus the Sacramento Kings but scored 26 fantasy points versus the Clippers and 27.6 fantasy points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers before that. He does only average 18.64 fantasy points per game and .74 fantasy points per minute. This match-up should roll in his favor.

The Phoenix Suns are currently giving up 40.66 fantasy points to opposing small forwards. They also allow them to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. While we can’t trust Fizdale and his coaching decisions, Dotson should still be in line for at least his usually average of minutes but who knows when they’ll actually come.

Ish Smith vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Salary: $4,400 – Needs to score 22 fantasy points or more to exceed value (28.6 for 6.5x)

Ish Smith really isn’t a focus for the Detroit Pistons but he makes pretty good usage of his minutes. He has now put up 25 and 25.4 fantasy points in back to back games against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors. He now gets to face the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. He’s averaging 22 minutes per game with a usage rate of just 19%. He is also averaging a low 17.04 fantasy points per game and .77 fantasy points per minute.

While the Timberwolves are turning it up in time for the playoffs, they still give up a good amount points to the point guard position. They are allowing opposing point guards to average 20 points, 9 assist, and 6 rebounds per game, plus give up 45.61 fantasy points. While I don’t have a true punt play on the low tier tonight for the Fanduel Drop Score feature, any of these three guys can give you a good outcome if the cards fall correctly.

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DFS NBA – The Top Salary Value Plays – Simmons Says “Pick Me!”

By Shaun Evans | Mar 6, 2019