FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 3/6 – Remember the Alamo!

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 3/6

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

After a day off from writing yesterday I am excited to get back into the swing of things today and dive into this big 10-game NBA DFS slate. I only played one lineup yesterday and tried to step away from DFS for most of the day to clear my head and I would highly recommend it to anyone who feels like they need a break. Grinding DFS every day can be exhausting and the best thing you can do sometimes is to sit out a day or two to regain your focus and refresh your brain.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

For those who may not know, I am a history teacher by day and DFS analyst/writer/player by night. So in my quest to come up with original titles for my articles, I found myself making a reference to the rich history of San Antonio today with the Alamo reference as a way of alluding to the fact that I really like the Spurs tonight. They’re going to be paced up against one of the worst defensive teams in the league – sign me up!

My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

Let’s start our analysis by looking at Vegas totals and relevant injury news as a way to begin the process of narrowing our player pools.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

Injury Report

OUT: Lonzo Ball, Goran Dragic, Dante Exum, Furkan Korkmaz, Robert Covington, T.J. Warren, Chandler Hutchinson, Mario Hezonja, Luol Deng, Marvin Bagley III, Kyle Kuzma, Trey Lyles, Omari Spellman, Miles Plumlee, Ante Zizic, Boban Marjanovic, Tristan Thompson

DOUBTFUL: Dewayne Dedmon, Joel Embiid

QUESTIONABLE: Brandon Ingram, Lance Stephenson, John Collins, Jonah Bolden, Jahlil Okafor, Jakob Poeltl, DeAndre Jordan

PROBABLE: NONE

Kyle Kuzma is the newest addition to the injury report as he suffered an ankle injury in the Lakers’ last game. If Brandon Ingram can’t go either then we could see some value open up on the Lakers.

Vegas Info

***Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Minnesota all played yesterday. Philly and Chicago play each other today so both teams will be equally tired. Boston’s starters shouldn’t be too tired as they blew out the Warriors and didn’t play their full minutes.

***There are a few lines we are still waiting on, but for now two games are tied for the highest total with 231.5. That’s the Utah-New Orleans game and the Dallas-Washington game.

***The tightest spread comes from the Kings-Celtics game with Sacto being slight one-point point favorites at home. This game also has a healthy 229 total and the Celtics will be paced up so I have some interest there.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Derrick White (6700)

If you expect me to stop playing Derrick White tonight, then you’re going to be disappointed. White has been playing extremely well since returning from injury and has reclaimed the vast majority of point guard minutes for the Spurs. Tonight he has one of the elite matchups in NBA DFS – point guards against Atlanta. Fire him up with confidence tonight even if his price has gone up a bit.

Ben Simmons (9900)

As long as Joel Embiid remains out, Simmons is a cash lock for me, even as his price approaches 10k. He’s been over 50 FD points in three straight games and is a good bet for a triple-double tonight against a weak defensive team like Chicago – a team that he has tormented before.  Don’t over think this one, Big Ben’s rebounding and assists give him an excellent floor for cash games.

Luka Doncic (9300)

Did someone say triple-double? Luka is my third cash lock of the night as he has one of the best matchups on the board. Dallas is being paced up by Washington, a team that has been poor defensively all year. Luka has had a few disappointing outings in a row, but don’t fall victim to recency bias, he’s a really strong play and actually cheaper than he’s been in some time.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

DeAndre Ayton (8500)

I love this kid’s game and just continues to improve in the second half. He should feast on the weak interior of the Knicks in a game between two bad teams with bad defenses.  With 45 and 50 FD points in his two games and an average of 33 minutes played in those games, he’s clearly trending up and in a great spot tonight.

Jrue Holiday (8700)

I really love Holiday here for a few reasons. For one, his price dropped 500 dollars despite the fact that he scored 30 actual points against the Jazz just two nights ago. Secondly, I doubt he carries much ownership, Ever since the Pelicans announced they would monitor his minutes and Anthony Davis‘s I’ve noticed that fantasy players have been avoiding playing New Orleans guys because of the uncertainty. I can tell you this much, Holiday has been over 39 FD points in 6 straight games and has taken 23 shots in his last two games.

Tobias Harris (8000)

I’m sure we will get some Jimmy Butler revenge narrative talk today, but I want Simmons and Tobias in my lineups instead of Jimmy B. Harris has been simply outstanding since Embiid went down and dominated again last night with 21-12-5 against Orlando. I see no reason he can’t do it again tonight.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Alex Len (4100)

Sure, bad Len chalk burned everyone the other night, but that’s all the more reason to like him for GPPs today. His ownership should be drastically reduced due to recency bias and he’s still in line for big minutes as John Collins is questionable, Dewayne Dedmon is doubtful and Omari Spellman is out. The matchup against the Spurs is much better than Monday’s matchup against the Heat was.

Rodions Kurucs (3900)

Kurucs started on Monday and had himself a game, scoring 29 FD points and near minimum price. It’s hard to trust the Nets rotations but he’s still super cheap and the matchup is solid against a bottom 5 defense in Cleveland.

Amir Johnson (3500)

Amir went ham yesterday scoring 30 FD points in only 19 minutes. As long as Jonah Bolden is out again tonight (which is not known yet) then Johnson is an excellent punt play again.

Dirk Nowitzki (4100)

Some of you will stop playing Dirk, but not me. I know he’s old and he’s only playing 20 minutes but we are talking about one of the greatest shooters in NBA history and he’s out there chucking. All he needs to do is get hot shooting during one of his 5-minute stints on the floor and he will pay off his price tag.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays (continued)

Do you want more value plays? You got ’em! We’ve got ten games and therefore a number of solid value plays that I am eyeing to try to fit in as many high-priced studs as I can on this slate.

Harry Giles III (4700)

Giles finally got more than 20 minutes on Monday and has shown he has elite per-minute upside. I like that his price went down a few hundred and that power forward is loaded with value options because I don’t think many will want to play him against Boston, but I do!

Noah Vonleh (4700)

Is Vonleh back? He certainly seems to be as he’s now made value in three straight games and is earning more minutes in the Knicks crowded frontcourt. If DeAndre Jordan misses tonight then I like Vonleh a lot more.

Mikal Bridges (4800)

Bridges was sent to the bench last game, but he still played 30 minutes and his ability to rack up boards, steals and blocks gives him a ton of fantasy appeal even if he’s still an inconsistent scorer.

Kyle Korver (4300)

Korver has seen a significant increase in minutes over his last three games and has popped off in two of those games, scoring over 20 actual points against Denver and New Orleans.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings

Something I started right before the break was my favorite players at each position. Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” if you will.  These rankings reflect how I would order players based on a “point per dollar basis” and the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.

Point Guard

1. Derrick White
2. Ben Simmons
3. Trae Young

Shooting Guard

1. Luka Doncic
2. Jrue Holiday
3. Bradley Beal

Small Forward

1. Cedi Osman
2. Kelly Oubre Jr.
3. Jabari Parker

Power Forward

1. Tobias Harris
2. Amir Johnson
3. Bobby Portis

Center

1. DeAndre Ayton
2.  Alex Len
3. Al Horford

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup. I do have my cash core plays in there but I also have some riskier plays like Jrue Holiday and Kelly Oubre. Going with three punt plays at 4k and lower is really more of a GPP strategy as well and we know that none of those three cheap guys are entirely safe.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are always pivots that need to be made as the slate unfolds during the day!

PG: Ben Simmons (9900)
PG: Derrick White (6700)
SG: Luka Doncic (9300)
SG: Jrue Holiday (8700)
SF: Cedi Osman (6100)
SF: Kelly Oubre Jr. (7700)
PF: Rodions Kurucs (3900)
PF: Amir Johnson (3500)
C: Alex Len (4100)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!