NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday, March 6 – Hart’s On Fire!
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was dominated by the stars of the slate with Karl-Anthony Towns and Russell Westbrook leading the way as the only two players to go over 60 fantasy points while four others eclipsed the 50 fantasy point night including Gordon Hayward of all people. GPP winning scores for the second straight night were well under 350 – in fact in the $25 Pick and Roll on FantasyDraft, the winning score was only 329 while the cash line sat at 293 making for one of the more condensed scoring nights we have seen in a while!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Wednesday Slate Breakdown:
We have a monster 10 game NBA DFS slate on tap for Wednesday with 7 of the 8 totals available right now showing games with 225+ totals, not a single one with a double-digit spread and a boatload of stars to sort through. Despite the lofty totals, 12 of the 20 teams in action see a projected pace decrease tonight so finding the right game environments to attack on this slate is going to be critical with so many options available to us.
For such a massive slate, we really do not have a ton of injury news at first glance with the biggest piece we are waiting on likely the status of Brandon Ingram while also waiting on a plethora of injuries in the Hawks frontcourt as they take on the Spurs. Outside of that, it feels weird to say we have most of the information already on a ten game slate – cue the 100 players ruled out for load management right after lunch time!
There are four players priced above $18K tonight on FantasyDraft including Bradley Beal, Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns but only one sits above $20K and that is LeBron James at $20.2K.
I am torn honestly on what we do with LeBron here tonight for tournaments, as King James was nearly 80% owned his last slate as the combination of value across the slate made paying up for his raw points a clear play. I pointed this out then and will do so again tonight – how many times has LeBron actually had those ceiling games were you simply could not cash or win a GPP without him?
In the last 20 games, LeBron has only gone for over 70 fantasy points twice – and at this price point that is what you need for him to really hit GPP or ceiling value. In two previous games against the Nuggets, LeBron has been at polar opposite sides of his fantasy spectrum – putting up 68 fantasy points as opposed to 32 fantasy points the last time they met in November.
The one thing I keep coming back to tonight though is how LeBron is going to have to do this all by himself. Kyle Kuzma has already been ruled OUT while Brandon Ingram is questionable to play which may force our hand here tonight.
With those two and Lonzo Ball off the court this season, with LeBron and Rajon Rondo ($11.9K) on, in 70 minutes of court time LeBron has a near 40% usage rate. This game has the highest projected pace on the slate and is the ONLY game of the ten tonight where both teams see a projected pace boost.
The fact that the Nuggets sit 1.5 games out of the top spot in the West while the Lakers are desperate for any playoff push right now, sitting 5.5 games out – could end up making this a highly competitive playoff type so is there merit to stacking it?
NBA DFS – Game Stacking Around The King:
If Brandon Ingram is ultimately ruled out, the thought of fading LeBron James here becomes a scary one simply because of the usage that is coming off the court with Ingram and Kuzma sidelined.
As a result of those injuries we could see someone like Josh Hart ($6.3K) who played 30 minutes and notched 25 fantasy points last game, step into the starting line-up with makes paying up for LeBron that much easier when you get an obvious punt play to pair with him to offset LeBron’s $20K price tag.
The biggest reason to play Josh Hart though is simple. It is his birthday. Period. Stop. Slate breaker incoming.
Rajon Rondo ($11.9K) is coming off a massive triple-double against the Clippers, racking up 59 fantasy points and has now gone for 48+ fantasy points in 3 of his last four games which said another way, means he has gone for 4x value (3.5x is the target on FantasyDraft for GPP’s normally).
If you are going to play 2-3 Lakers, then running it back with the Nuggets in the hope that this game stays close and competitive throughout, makes a ton of sense.
On the other side of that game, Nikola Jokic ($18.7K) has now been held under 50 fantasy points in three straight games and put up only 37 and 45 fantasy points against the Lakers in their two earlier season meetings. Playing devil’s advocate here – look at what opposing bigs have done against the Lakers in recent games – DeAndre Ayton (50) while Jonas Valanciunas and Joakim Noah combined for 80 fantasy points while splitting the 48 center minutes for Memphis.
What really stands out to me with Denver is how tight of a rotation Mike Malone seems to be settling into with his starting unit which is a reason DFS players have always loved using his teams.
Even with a deep rotation of 9-10 guys, Malone has really leaned on his starting five the last few games while playing guys like Paul Millsap ($13.4K), Will Barton ($11.3K) and Jamal Murray ($12.2K) over 30+ minutes a night with regularity. Gary Harris ($7.6K) is really cheap but with his minutes restriction being held firm (topping off at 25-26 minutes), he becomes nothing more than a GPP flier.
This game is the ESPN National TV game – and you have to think LeBron is hearing all the criticism which seemingly has come non-stop since his playoff mode activated comment has resulted in the Lakers self-destructing.
I honestly could see this being a ceiling game for LeBron as a result of the injuries to the Lakers and if I think that – game stacking it with the core Nuggets feels like a strong GPP strategy but be careful, this could also end up being the nail in the Lakers coffin where one of the top teams in the NBA steam-rolls LeBron on his home floor and he looks around at Reggie Bullock and Mike Muscala and longs for the days of playing next to Kyrie in Cleveland.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a plug and play lineup.
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G: Rajon Rondo
G: Josh Hart
G: Will Barton
F/C: LeBron James
F/C: Nikola Jokic
F/C: Paul Millsap
UTIL: Jamal Murray
UTIL: $6K Punt
Slate Overview: I will be honest – I did not think when I opened up a 10 game slate that I would end up game stacking any spot but the more I look at the Lakers and Nuggets and how the pricing falls on FantasyDraft, I think you can make a strong argument for it assuming Brandon Ingram is indeed out.
Think about the 7 man stack I have laid out there and what you are really building around.
- You have 7 players with 30-35 minute “security” assuming this game stays close
- You have the highest projected pace game on the slate and the only game of the 10 where both teams see a pace boost
- Over the last 10 games, the Nuggets and Lakers rank 5th and 7th in pace of play
- With the Lakers so banged up, you get “easy value” with Josh Hart that helps offset the cost of the stars
- You have two plays in LeBron and Jokic which despite reasons to avoid them – would you really be shocked if you opened the slate results tomorrow and saw they were the highest raw point plays on the night?
On a ten game slate, ownership is going to be spread out so I worry far less about game theory on slates of this size although I do think this game will carry some of the highest ownership when/if we get news that Ingram is out.
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Good luck tonight all – stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis on FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!