DraftKings NBA Picks March 7: We can win, by George

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DraftKings NBA Picks March 7: We can win, by George

We only have two games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments tonight, so we need to get creative to get some separation. They both should be good games with Indiana facing the Bucks and the Thunder going to Portland. That’s a lot of star power on a small slate? Where do we find some value here?

True to form on a ten game slate, the cash line was a big one at 288.75 DraftKings points. It didn’t look like it was going to be, but the last two games on the slate gave us some huge scorers. A bad game from Bembry kept me off the cash line and a very low game from Blake didn’t help either.

jonesymc took it down with 368.75 DraftKings points. He built with Luka Doncic and had a balanced lineup with Barton, Ariza, LMA, Dwight Powell, Derrick White, Horford, and Gary Harris. Every one of them went for more than 35 DraftKings points.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook has averaged 61.1 DraftKings points in the three games against Portland so far this year, so he seems very fairly priced here. The only issue is going to be finding the value to try and fit Westbrook in our lineups. The separation is going to come with the value picks. Don’t try to get cute with the locks.

Honorable Mention:

However, Damian Lillard has a lofty 50.8 DraftKings point average against the Thunder this year. That means you’re getting only 10.3 less points and saving $3,000. That seems like a pretty good deal to me! Ideally, I’m going to try to put both Lillard and Westbrook in at least one lineup together.

Dark Horses:

Two starters down, two to go. Eric Bledsoe’s average against Indiana is only 29.4 DraftKings points per game in the three matchups. Collison’s is similarly uninspiring at just 21.1. For value, we want a lower price than $5,800 and at least a shot at 30 DraftKings points. I would consider Bledsoe, but Indiana has been tough on point guards all season. We can get a better flier further down, right?

The only one I would even consider is Cory Joseph. He has carved out a solid niche with Oladipo sidelined, but consistency has been an issue. Chalk the dud against Chicago up to poor shooting. In the three games prior to that, CoJo had at least 6x value and almost hit 40 DraftKings points in one of those. He’s worth the risk.

My pick: Lillard(PG)

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DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Khris Middleton is the highest priced shooting guard here, but I don’t think he should be. Yeah, the 31 DraftKings point average against the Pacers is right where we want him, but he has no upside with Giannis on the court. C.J. McCollum is $200 cheaper and has a lot more upside. C.J.’s 29.8 average against the Thunder is lower than Middleton’s, but in GPP’s, I’m chasing the upside of McCollum.

Honorable Mention:

Yes, Indiana’s defense is tough. No, Malcolm Brogdon doesn’t care. His average of 27 DraftKings points per game against them is nothing spectacular, but I think we can take 5x value in GPP’s tonight and still cash. Brogdon is arguably the most consistent player in the league for fantasy purposes. He is a DFS gold mine.

Dennis Schroder probably has more upside than Brogdon, but keep in mind that his floor is also lower. The return of George really didn’t hurt Schroder. He still put up 26.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes against Minnesota. The Thunder are going to keep playing him.

Dark Horses:

Wesley Matthews has between 20 and 29 DraftKings points in seven straight games. This is the kind of consistency I can get behind. Wes is taking the guesswork out of the value guard slot. DraftKings pricing Matthews at $4,300 may as well be a free space. I’m treating it like one.

If you want to go cheaper than Matthews, you have to take a huge risk with two guys who play solid minutes. Terrence Ferguson isn’t a part of the offense at all anymore. In fact, he hasn’t even hit double digits in DraftKings points in March. The other is Pat Connaughton. Yes, the same guy who got precisely zero DraftKings points in 21 minutes of court time against Phoenix. Yes, those are our options.

My pick: Matthews(SG)

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DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Small forwards against Portland. Yes, it’s still a thing. Proof positive is Paul George. George has a lofty 68.5 DraftKings points per game average in the three games against Portland this year. That makes George the best play on the slate whether the price says so or not. I will have George in every lineup I make tonight.

Honorable Mention:

I really love the spot for Bojan Bogdanovic as well. Don’t worry about the averages from earlier in the year. Bojan has been a much different player with Oladipo out. Bogdanovic has shouldered much of the scoring load vacated by Oladipo. That gives him huge upside, even though his price has stumbled up over $6,000.

Thaddeus Young is a strong play here as well. He has been getting more minutes with Sabonis out, and Young carries a lofty 29.1 DraftKings point per game average into this one anyway. This is a spot were Young should put up even better numbers than that.

Dark Horses:

Nikola Mirotic has been all over the place as a member of the Bucks. This looks like a decent spot for him, but we just don’t know what to expect. The only thing consistent with Mirotic is his minutes. He has played between 22 and 27 minutes in each of the last five games. Mirotic hit 5x value in three of those five, but only 6x value once.

I thought our days of playing Mo Harkless were over, but Portland wised up. If they aren’t going to get defense from the spot anyway, they decided they may as well get as much offense as they can. Harkless responded with 20 real points and 36 DraftKings points on Memphis. We could see the minutes on Harkless dwindle at times, but Portland isn’t going to bench him when he’s putting up this kind of numbers. Harkless is an absolute steal at $4,200

My pick: Bogdanovic(G), George(SF), Young(PF), Harkless(F)

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DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis has averaged a strong 58.2 DraftKings points per game against Indiana this year. That’s still a shade over 5x value, but I could make a case for fading Giannis here. Both Paul George and Damian Lillard have better per dollar production. Perhaps more important than that is the fact that would wouldn’t have to dig so far down for value. If I can build a strong lineup that includes Giannis I will, but I’m not going to drop to a $3,500 guy just to get him, especially on a slate like this where $3,500 guys are mostly horrible.

Honorable Mention:

For as weak as Portland has been against small forwards, they have been really good against power forwards. Jerami Grant only has 42.5 DraftKings points in 60 minutes against Portland this year. The drop off at PF is really steep, and the fact that Grant has really struggled against the Blazers just magnifies that. The saving grace is that most of my favorite SF’s are eligible here as well.

Dark Horses:

Al-Farouq Aminu has averaged a lofty 31.8 DraftKings points against the Thunder in three tries this year. We all know that Aminu is only in play during good matchups, and this is one of the best for him if the past is any indication. Aminu has averaged 25 minutes per game in 29 career games against the Thunder averaging nearly a whole DraftKings point per minute. We should expect Aminu in the high 20’s to low 30’s again tonight.

I can get on board with a punt of Kyle O’Quinn tonight because Sabonis is still out, but don’t expect a miracle. Hell, don’t even expect 20. Ersan Ilyasova is a much more consistent and valuable punt…..and he’s $400 cheaper.

My pick: N/A

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 17: Jusuf Nurkic #27 of the Portland Trail Blazers look son during the second half of a game against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center on December 17, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Jusuf Nurkic holds top billing at center, and it’s hard to argue that. Nurkic has averaged 39.6 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes per game in three games against the Thunder this year. With all of the other bad matchups and/or injuries below here, it makes sense to pay up for Nurkic here.