NBA DFS: DraftKings NBA Picks March 8: King George II

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – MARCH 03: Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on March 03, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 8: King George II

We have a pretty big Friday with nine games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. Only three players tip the scales at five figures and no one is above $11,000, but there are seven more players at $9,000 or above. This is a loaded tier right below the top. Deciding when to dip into that tier to fade a star is going to be crucial in winning on this slate.

My core build of Lillard and Paul George landed me well above the cash line of 301. I missed with Harkless and Aminu enough to keep me away from the big money.

skijmb and KCM024 split the takedown with 361.5 DraftKings points. They built with my same core, but had the gamebreaker in Myles Turner. They also got huge value out of Pat Connaughton, O’Quinn, and Khris Middleton.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 15: Luka Doncic #77 of the World Team reacts during the 2019 Mtn Dew ICE Rising Stars at Spectrum Center on February 15, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook picked up technical foul number 16 on the season last night, so he should be suspended for tonight’s game against the Clippers. If the league office is slow, he may get a reprieve, and if Westbrook is in, I can see using him against the Clippers. However, the league usually doesn’t mess around with matters like this.

Orlando’s strong rating against point guards is a little misleading. They have dropped six slots just since the All Star break. Luka Doncic put up 35.25 DraftKings points on the Magic in just 25 minutes while going 2-11 from the floor in the first meeting. If Doncic plays like he has lately, we wont miss Westbrook at all.

Ben Simmons has been so good with Embiid out that I would consider using him here against Houston, a team he struggled against earlier in the year, so long as Embiid is out. Stephen Curry is also here, but he has been just a hair above 5x value against Denver in two games this year. I prefer the upside of Westbrook or Doncic if you are going to pay up for a point guard.

Honorable Mention:

This is a huge spot for Kemba Walker. He has absolutely embarrassed the Wizards this year, racking up 116.25 DraftKings points in just 71 minutes against them. We all know that Kemba comes up huge every time he’s supposed to. Kemba is a top tier option at a middle tier price.

On a large slate such as this, there’s no reason to chase Paul or Conley in less than ideal matchups. Conley has 123 DraftKings points in three meeting with Utah this year but how long until the Grizz start resting him? It’s all the rage right now. Just drop down to Kyle Lowry against a Jrue less Pelicans team.

Justise Winslow has 121.5 DraftKings points in the three games against Cleveland this year, and he is just $6,200. Dragic is still nursing a calf strain, and Miami really has no reason to rush him back against Cleveland. It’s all Justise here!

Dark Horses:

Tomas Satoransky continues to perform at a good level, and his price really hasn’t moved much. He’s not all that consistent though, but Satoranksy has 61.75 DraftKings points in the two meetings against Charlotte. Running him and Kemba seems like a solid idea here. There’s good upside with both of them.

I don’t like the matchup for Elfrid Payton, but with Holiday out, there is clear upside here. Unless of course the Pelicans gets destroyed. That’s a possibility as well. If you don’t trust it, D.J. Augustin against Dallas could be a decent punt too.

Sure, Reggie Jackson is going to start against Chicago, but Ish Smith has more DraftKings points than him in each of the last three games. Oh yeah, he’s only $3,600. Smith may be the ultimate chalk play, but there’s no way I’m fading him.

My pick: Walker(PG), Winslow(F); Smith(PG), Winslow(F), Wright(UTIL)

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – MARCH 01: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on during the first quarter against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on March 01, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden got 55 DraftKings points against Philly in just 30 minutes the first time around. That’s exactly 5x value. This isn’t a terrific matchup, but Harden is the only guy who can hit 90 on any given night.

Bradley Beal has 110 DraftKings points in the two games against Charlotte so far this year. They aren’t slowing him down here either. Sure, Harden is the ultimate in upside, but I like the fact that Beal is the one man gang that Harden was when Paul was out. Beal has a higher floor, and the ceiling is nearly as high.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell has been an absolute dog against Memphis this year, so I have no issue saving the cash and moving down to Zach LaVine. LaVine isn’t the model of consistency, but Detroit guard defense is lacking, and LaVine has dropped some 50’s and 60’s here and there this year. That’s good upside for the price.

Jimmy Butler‘s consistency has improved with Embiid out, but I prefer the matchup for Lou Williams. He’ll still have to deal with Ferguson’s defense, but Williams has not been under 28 DraftKings points since Harris was dealt.

Klay Thompson looks cheap here. He has 71 DraftKings points in the two games against Denver this year. We never really know who is getting what as far as the Warriors go, and Klay is more of a risk than most. If he’s cold, this offense will practically phase him out. If not, Klay can carry them. The same is true for Will Barton on the other side of this.

Dark Horses:

It’s all Dennis Schroder here. He’s $5,600 and starting for Westbrook. We may see Schroder’s numbers decline a bit running with the starters. That’s what happened earlier this year. However, Schroder is comfortable with the team now and is far more assertive than he was earlier in the season.

Nicolas Batum isn’t usually someone I chase in GPP’s because the upside isn’t great. It may be here against Washington. There isn’t going to be a lot of defense in this game, and it’s plenty cheap enough to stack. If you want the upside, chase some Patrick Beverley.

I see no reason to chase Terrence Ross or Tim Hardaway here. Not with Avery Bradley and Luke Kennard even cheaper. Both are on fire right now and are way too cheap. I’m using both just about everywhere.

Yes, you can go even cheaper here. Delon Wright has been very good over the last couple of games and seems to have surpassed Justin Holiday in the pecking order. David Nwaba isn’t starting, but he is putting up some big numbers off the bench at a very low price.

My pick: Bradley(SG), Kennard(SG); Bradley(SG), Kennard(G)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 25: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after a play against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on February 25, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George dropped 65 DraftKings points on Portland last night and has averaged a cool 51.8 in three games against the Clippers this year. PG could surpass all of that with Westbrook out tonight. I’d pay Harden’s salary for George tonight. That’s how good he’s going to be.

This is a really good matchup for Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard, and neither of them are over $9,000. That said, I don’t see either of them coming close to George tonight. The $800 you save probably isn’t going to make that much of a difference.

Honorable Mention:

Danilo Gallinari has averaged 37.9 DraftKings points in only 30 minutes per game in the three games against the Thunder this year. Gallinari is a solid producer with a strong floor. The dropoff is pretty steep, but Gallinari makes it feel less so.

It’s still the Washington-Charlotte game, so you know I like Trevor Ariza and Jabari Parker here too. I’m not crazy about Jeremy Lamb due to the inconsistency. There are plenty of options available with less risk.

Dark Horses:

Marvin Williams has 63 DraftKings points in two games against Washington this year, but he has not topped 30 DraftKings points in a game since February 9th. The minutes are still there though, and this is a team that Williams always gets his against. He’s a strong value play here.

Landry Shamet continues to be a nice addition for the Clippers, but the Clippers already have one Lou Williams. Shamet is a specialist just like Lou, and you know who gets first billing here. Still, with Westbrook out, the Thunder are going to be thin enough to make this a chance worth taking if you need salary relief.

My pick: George(SF), Gallinari(PF); George(SF)

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – OCTOBER 19: Kevin Love #0 of the Cleveland Cavaliers speaks with head coach Tyronn Lue during the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on October 19, 2018 at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Cavaliers 131-123. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake has failed in smash spots lately. Even though he has 103 DraftKings points in two games against Chicago this year, Blake only has topped 50 DraftKings points once since the break. Power forward is pretty thin at the top, but that doesn’t mean you should bust the bank for an underachieving Blake. Not when you can play George or Durant at PF anyway.

I keep talking myself out of Kevin Love. I probably need to quit doing that. Love hasn’t been under 5x value since the Cavs have upped his minutes over 25 per game. Miami is a bit of a challenge for him here, but we don’t really have a reason to doubt Love now.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris continues to fit well in Philly. The Bulls really shut down Harris, but they are one of the few teams that have. We can go back to the well here, especially with PF a fairly weak position tonight. However, Butler is stepping up for Philly, and there are other options where there isn’t as much risk. When was the last time a safe lineup took down a GPP though?

Pascal Siakam is expensive enough that his value potential isn’t nearly as high as it used to be. I’m a little curious to see how the Pelicans will do with Holiday out. In all honesty, the huge blowout potential will probably keep me off of most of the players in this game, especially on the Toronto side.

There are more players that I want to stay away from than I want to use in this tier tonight. Aaron Gordon, despite his recent run of success, is not someone I trust against a solid Dallas defense. The same is true for Millsap against the Warriors. Derrick Favors seems to expensive, and Nance is relegated to bench duty, albeit with solid minutes. I’m passing on all of them.

Dark Horses:

It’s really hard to stay off of Kelly Olynyk here, but I’m going to do it for the good of my lineup and bankroll. Same with Bam. Jae Crowder and Jeff Green are much safer value plays with much better matchups.

I really like P.J. Tucker with Faried out against a Philly team that struggles with small forwards. I also see more minutes opening for the versatile Kenrich Williams with Davis on a strict minutes limit and Holiday out. However, Darius Miller is probably still the safer play.

My pick: N/A; Love(PF)

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – MARCH 06: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts to a second half dunk while playing the Minnesota Timberwolves at Little Caesars Arena on March 06, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 131-119. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

This looks like a good matchup on paper for Jokic, but the Warriors have been outstanding against him this season. The chances that he hits value here are pretty slim. I would much rather spend on small forwards than pay up for Jokic.

Despite a favorable matchup on paper for Nikola Vucevic as well, I think I’m fading this too. However, it will take quite a lot to move me off of Andre Drummond against the Bulls. Blake struggling has led to some huge lines for Drummond. He’s my favorite center tonight regardless of price.