English Premier League DFS Breakdown – 3/9/19

It seems like forever since I wrote an article, but maybe that was due to the number of exams I had this week.  Regardless, it’s spring break now, so I’ll be throwing a ton of soccer DFS content at you starting with my English Premier League DFS Breakdown for Saturday!  We have a typical 6-game main slate, so let’s dive right in.

As expected, Manchester City are the largest favorites on this slate (-2.5) as they take on Watford at home.  The over/under for that game sits at a high 3.5.  Tottenham (against Southampton) and Leicester (against Fulham) are also substantial favorites on Saturday.  The tightest spread on the slate is Everton @ Newcastle.  Although the make might be competitive, the goal total over/under is 2.0 which is the lowest on the slate and doesn’t have much fantasy appeal.  In the other two games on the slate West Ham take on Cardiff on the road and Huddersfield hosts Bournemouth.

There is not a whole ton of influential injury news on the slate.  Callum Wilson has returned to training and could play Saturday.  Based on the manager’s comments, it seems unlikely Wilson would start if healthy and would probably make his return as a substitute after 7 weeks of rehab.  Another Bournemouth forward, Dominic Solanke, also seems unlikely to play leaving Josh King as the main striker.

Kevin de Bruyne can’t shake the injury bug and has been ruled out Saturday which means Riyad Mahrez should join the starting lineup and makes for an interesting GPP play.

Dele Alli will be available for Saturday’s game against Southampton.  Alli hasn’t played in well over a month making him a risky pick even in a good matchup.

Kieran Trippier picked up an injury recently and is out.  Serge Aurier will start for him at minimum price.

That’s about it for a slate overview.  Keep reading to find out what all that information translates to in terms of plays.

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – 3/9/19

Target Forwards

Harry Kane (Tottenham @ Southampton, $13,000) – Normally I’m not one to pay up for Harry Kane, but this is a good matchup and he’s been since returning from injury.  In three EPL games since being fully fit, Kane has scored twice.  He also scored midweek in UCL action against Dortmund.  Southampton’s goal defense is middle-of-the-pack on their home ground, but Kane should not have much difficulty with that.  He’s a good stud option in all formats.

Jamie Vardy (Fulham @ Leicester, $11,000) – This one should be easy.  Targeting a scorer like Vardy at home against a league-worst Fulham defense will be a popular play.  It’s also worth noting that Vardy is coming into this game having scored in three of his last four EPL appearances.  He’s an elite cash option on Saturday.

Value Forwards

Joshua King (Bournemouth @ Huddersfield, $8,500) – As mentioned in my slate overview, Callum Wilson could return for this game.  If he starts, that hurts King somewhat, but this is still a plus matchup regardless of Wilson’s status.  Huddersfield have looked horrid recently with only one EPL win since Thanksgiving.  Needless to say, Bournemouth should score multiple goals in this game and King is one of the better bets to get one.  His ability to get some peripherals adds to his appeal as one of the better cheap forward plays on this slate.

Chicharito (West Ham @ Cardiff, $8,000) – I’m just going to be short with this one.  Normally, I wouldn’t consider Chicharito much in this spot, but the lack of value forwards put him into consideration.  This is a plus matchup against a weak Cardiff defense.  We all know Chicharito can score, although inconsistently.  You won’t really find anyone cheaper than $8k who has decent odds at scoring.  At the very least he should be able to get some shots on goal or create some chances for you if you need the salary relief.

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – 3/9/19

Target Midfielders

James Maddison (Fulham @ Leicester, $9,000) – One good thing about this slate is that there aren’t really any enticing 5-digit midfielders to prioritize so you don’t need to rely on that bad forward value.  James Maddison is in an incredible spot on paper.  Fulham’s defense bleeds goals, and Maddison specializes in creating goals.  Maddison is averaging 4.8 chances created in his last five EPL games and Fulham have given up the 2nd most chances created in the league so far.  Maddison’s great floor should be enough to make you want to play him, and there is real upside here as well.  Pairing him with Vardy is a worthy strategy.

Ryan Fraser (Bournemouth @ Huddersfield, $7,500) – Much like FWDs, it’s a little difficult to find plays that stand out at the midfield position as well.  Ryan Fraser had a great first half of the season until an injury derailed him.  It’s been tough for Fraser since his return, but he’s played in three straight games now so he should have his feet back under him.  A matchup with Huddersfield is a perfect place for Fraser to return to the score sheet.  His ability to get peripherals plus this matchup should give him a decently safe floor with goal/assist upside.

Riyad Mahrez (Watford @ Manchester City, $7,500) – I mentioned Mahrez previously as the most likely player to step into KDB’s starting role.  Price considered, Mahrez is my favorite exposure to Manchester City on Saturday.  Since Fernandinho’s injury, City have two unconvincing 1-0 wins in the league in games where they were heavily favored.  If this trend continues, I don’t see the need to pay up for their studs.  Mahrez scored the goal in their win last weekend, so he can use this matchup to build off that.

Value Midfielders

Harvey Barnes (Fulham @ Leicester, $6,000) – From a purely matchup standpoint, Barnes is worthy of consideration at such a cheap price.  From his limited EPL time with Leicester, Barnes has not done a whole lot but he’s capable of collecting enough peripheral stats in this game to get you to 3x value.  The value at the midfield position is just as gross as the forward position.  Use Barnes to help you get more studs.

Havard Nordtveit (Fulham @ Leicester, $5,000) – Who would’ve thought I would recommend this many plays in a game between Fulham and Leicester.  Anyways, Nordtveit has started three straight games for Fulham and has been super consistently getting 13-14 points.  For only $5,000, Nordtveit can really help you pay up for the studs on this slate so you can avoid the ugly mid-tier plays.

Manuel Lanzini (West Ham @ Cardiff, $4,500) – Lanzini finally made his first start back with West Ham after a long injury.  I don’t really have many stats to back this pick up but getting a player of Lanzini’s caliber for minimum price in a matchup against a poor defensive team is a godsend.

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – 3/9/19

Target Defenders

Lucas Digne (Everton @ Newcastle, $7,000) – Digne really cooled off in the last month after his red-hot November and December.  However, last weekend Digne’s old form returned as he created four chances and added other peripherals in a 28.7 FDP game against Liverpool of all teams.  This matchup against Newcastle will be easier for him.  Fabian Schar ($7,500) almost took my top defender spot this week, but I prefer Digne’s attacking upside.

Nathan Ake (Bournemouth @ Huddersfield, $6,000) – This is a like against like matchup.  Ake thrives off clearances and Huddersfield normally allow defenders to get a bunch of clearances.  Ake’s floor is safe for this game based on clearances and other defensive stats alone.  In a game against a weak Huddersfield team, he could also find himself joining in the attack which gives him some appealing upside on Saturday.

Value Defenders

Kurt Zouma (Everton @ Newcastle, $5,000) – Kurt Zouma is in the middle of a really nice run of six of his last seven games going over 3x value.  At time over the course of his EPL career, Zouma has been one of the best stat-sheet-stuffing defenders on FanDuel.  This week, we can get him at a really affordable price where he is likely to eclipse 3x value again.  He’s priced too cheap on this slate and should be considered in all formats if you need a mid-tier defender.

Serge Aurier (Tottenham @ Southampton, $4,000) – Value play of the day goes to Aurier, who will almost certainly be starting for the injured Kieran Trippier.  Aurier has only appeared in eight EPL games this season, but that does not concern me on Saturday.  Aurier will get enough peripherals to get 3x value easily and his wingback position should allow him some attacking upside as well.  For minimum price, you can fit him in in any format.

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – 3/9/19

Goalkeepers

Kasper Schmeichel (Fulham @ Leicester, $5,000) – If you make it all the way down to GK and haven’t used your maximum four Leicester players yet, grab Schmeichel.  Fulham average a lowly 0.6 goals per game on the road.  Leicester haven’t been that stout defensively this year, but they should still be able to shut down Fulham and get a clean sheet for Schmeichel.

Martin Dubravka (Everton @ Newcastle, $6,0000) – Dubravka is my go big or go home GK on this slate.  Newcastle are better than you think defensively, and they’ll host an inconsistent Everton team on Saturday.  Everton average just barely more than 1.0 goal per game on the road, and Newcastle need all the points they can get to stay above the relegation zone so I expect them to be ready.  Everton should still be able to put enough shots on target to give Dubravka save points even if he does allow a goal.  Those saves plus a possible win and clean sheet making his upside big.

Hope you enjoyed my English Premier League DFS Breakdown.  I’ll be available on Twitter (@vdray5) if you need any extra advice or last minute questions answered.