FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Friday, 3/8 – Play Kemba at Home

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Friday, 3/8

Welcome back to the Friday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

I took yesterday’s two-game slate off and I have to admit it was nice not to worry about cramming lineups around lock or tilting some dude getting in early foul trouble for once. I will definitely be going hard on tonight’s slate, however, as it’s a 9-gamer that I really like a lot at first glance.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

I do want to make something very clear before we get into the slate breakdown. NBA DFS is only going to get more challenging as the season gets closer to the end.  If you’ve been grinding away all season, by all means – keep grinding!

But understand that you’re going to have to be hyper-vigilant about injury news, players potential resting, and teams that are starting to tank and are going to limit their starters’ minutes or play really deep rotations. I’ll play until the very last day of the season, but I will also pick and choose the slates I want to play the most volume on based on how confident I feel about it.

Let’s start our analysis by looking at Vegas totals and relevant injury news as a way to begin the process of narrowing our player pools.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

Injury Report

OUT: Jrue Holiday, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Furkan Korkmaz, Kyle Anderson, Etwaun Moore, Chandler Hutchinson, Kenneth Faried, Jaren Jackson Jr., Trey Lyles,  Ante Zizic, Boban Marjanovic, Tristan Thompson, Matthew Dellavedova, Mo Bamba

DOUBTFUL: Ricky Rubio

QUESTIONABLE: Goran Dragic, Raul Neto, Iman Shumpert, Maxi Kleber, Jahlil Okafor,

PROBABLE: Klay Thompson, Avery Bradley, Justin Holiday, Bismack Biyombo, Kevon Looney

The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid for another game but be careful because their prices are rising quickly and the matchup with Houston isn’t appealing as it might seem.

Jrue Holiday is going to miss some time for the Pelicans which is a situation we want to monitor tonight. Who will get his 30-32 minutes and how his usage is going to be redistributed is something to keep a close eye on.

The statuses of Ricky Rubio and Goran Dragic are two key pieces of info I will be looking for updates on today that could have substantial ramifications on the slate as Utah and Miami are not teams I really want to use today but we would have to give more consideration if their point guards were to be out tonight.

Vegas Info

***The highest total on the slate (236) belongs the Clippers-Thunder game (10:30 start) and L.A. opened up as only 1.5 favorites. The Thunder are playing the second half of a back-to-back.

***Three other games have totals over 230. The Wizards-Hornets (234), Warriors-Nuggets (233), and Raptors-Pelicans (232) are appealing games to target with those huge totals.

***Toronto, Charlotte, L.A., and OKC are all being paced up the most by their opponents and they all have top 5 implied team totals today.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Paul George (10700)

So I was fully prepared to have Kawhi Leonard in the cash core until news broke that Russell Westbrook got his 16th technical foul during the game last night and will likely be suspended for tonight’s game against the Clippers. That makes Paul George an absolute “must play” in cash as he should have both an enormous usage rate an excellent matchup tonight.

Robin Lopez (5800)

A month ago we all would laugh at the idea of paying almost 6k for Ro-Lo, but lately, I can’t stop myself from clicking on his name. He’s simply been a very consistent and productive fantasy player and has a very safe floor now that he’s secured the majority of the center minutes for the Bulls. A matchup with Andre Drummond doesn’t scare me a bit, in fact, it means the Bulls will need him to log a lot of minutes to match the size of the Detroit frontcourt.

Kemba Walker (9000)

I saved my favorite play for last. Kemba and the Hornets are in a tremendous spot tonight against the Wizards. They have the second highest team total and are implied for a slate high 8 more points than their average this season. Washington is pacing them up and has been playing little to no defense. Kemba is at home, where he plays his best, and I expect him to have a big bounce-back game after two straight mediocre performances.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Kawhi Leonard (9600)

It’s definitely odd seeing Kevin Durant priced lower than Kawhi, but tonight I’m willing to pay that extra cash to get Leonard in a much better matchup. The Raptors are implied for 119 points tonight and have the highest pace increase on the slate. The Pelicans have been bad against small forwards all season and rank near the bottom in the league. Their defense is leaky and I expect Kawhi to dominate this matchup.

Andre Drummond (10000)

While I like paying down to Lopez in cash, I would much rather pay up for Drummond in GPPs and take a shot at a ceiling game from him. He’s coming off a 31-15 game against Minnesota and three other 60+ games in his last 9 games so we know he’s certainly capable of going 6x even at this price. It’s a great matchup for the big man and his ownership should be fairly low considering there will be other popular plays to spend up for on this slate.

Serge Ibaka (5500)

As long as he stays in the starting lineup tonight (which I think he will) then Serge is just way too cheap at this price tag for the matchup that he has against New Orleans. He’s coming off a 44 FD point performance against the Rockets in 30 minutes and with his ability to score, rebound, and block shots I expect him to smash this price tonight.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Frank Kaminsky (4400)

“Frank the Tank” is back and has reclaimed his 22-27 minute role off the bench for the Hornets. He’s gone over 20 FD points in each of his last three games and is shooting the ball well.

Amir Johnson (3900)

While Mike Scott and Jonah Bolden are both help to fill the void left by Joel Embiid inside, it’s been Amir Johnson who has started the last two games at center for the Sixers and played 19 and 20 minutes in those games. He’s an efficient enough fantasy player to get us 20+ even in only 20 minutes and cheaper than the other Philly big men which makes him my favorite of the three.

CJ Miles (3700)

Miles has carved out a 24-26 minute roll off the bench in Memphis and has always been a knockdown three-point shooter in his career. He’s very scoring dependent but has hit value pretty easily at this price if he drops a few threes and gets a few steals.

Kyle Korver (4200)

Korver is another streaky shooter who happens to be hot lately. His minutes are up over 25 minutes a game in his last three games and he’s not been shy about letting the shots fly while on the court.

Ish Smith (4700)

Just when you thought Reggie Jackson was turning the corner and becoming a reliable fantasy player, Ish Smith starts digging into his minutes again with his solid play. He’s gone over 20 minutes in 5 of his last 6 games and has always been a solid little stat-stuffer. The matchup is solid against the Bulls second unit and I’m willing to take a shot on his coach riding the hot hand and leaving him in there and letting poor Reggie rot on the pine.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings

Something I started right before the break was my favorite players at each position. Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” if you will.  These rankings reflect how I would order players based on a “point per dollar basis” and the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.

Point Guard

1. Kemba Walker
2. Chris Paul
3. Tomas Satoransky

Shooting Guard

1. Bradley Beal
2. Dennis Schroder
3. Lou Williams

Small Forward

1. Paul George
2. Kawhi Leonard
3. Jabari Parker

Power Forward

1. Serge Ibaka
2. Paul Millsap
3. Frank Kaminsky

Center

1. Andre Drummond
2. Clint Capela
3. Robin Lopez

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Washington (+5) @ Charlotte (234 total)

This game gives me all the warm fuzzy feels for NBA DFS.  It’s got a nice total, a relatively small spread and two teams with defenses that are ranked in the bottom half of the league.

The Wizards have won two games in a row scoring 132 and 135 points in those games. They also gave up 121 and 123 points in those games and they will be pacing up the hometown Hornets tonight.

What I love about this game stack (which I will build out for you on the next slide) is that outside of the two superstars (Kemba Walker and Bradley Beal), the rest of the pieces that I want to use are priced in the mid-tier which makes this a relatively easy game stack to build.

Nicolas Batum (6300) and Jeremy Lamb (6600) are both stat stuffing guards who can fill up the stat sheet in multiple categories and now that Lamb is coming off the bench their minutes are staggered quite a bit. The emergence of Kaminsky as a scorer and rebounder off the bench adds a nice value piece to this stack and Cody Zeller (5700) is also viable as he’s playing around 30 minutes still.

FanDuel will only let you play four Hornets, but you have a really good shot at locking in a huge chunk of an offense that could score 120-130 points tonight with these salaries being priced where they are.

On the Wizards side of things, I obviously love Bradley Beal (10500) as the first piece. He’s playing huge minutes and has been downright unstoppable since John Wall got hurt. His price has ballooned to its highest point of the season which might prevent some people from rostering him.

Tomas Satoransky (6200) and Jabari Parker (5700) are the other two Wizards that I prefer using. T-Sat has nice rebounding and assist upside and has flashed some ceiling this season with a few triple-doubles. Meanwhile, Parker has really excelled as the primary playmaker with the second unit and has scored over 20 actual points in back to back games. Trevor Ariza and Bobby Portis are also in play if you want to mix up some different variations of this stack, but I like these three Wizards to be the most productive on the night.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup and it’s a game-stack. I don’t usually build game stacks for the sample lineup but I am pretty enamored with this Washington-Charlotte game tonight. There’s a really good chance I won’t end up with this exact variation but I wanted to build it out and show you where I’m going with my favorite plays on each side. I rarely play more than 5-6 players from one game, but I also think is it a pretty unique situation tonight where it’s viable and I have seven in their today!

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are always pivots that need to be made as the slate unfolds during the day!

PG: Tomas Satoransky (6200)
PG: Kemba Walker (9000)
SG: Bradley Beal (10500)
SG: Jeremy Lamb (6600)
SF: Jabari Parker (5700)
SF: Nicolas Batum (6300)
PF: Frank Kaminsky (4400)
PF: Serge Ibaka (5500)
C: Robin Lopez (5800)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!