NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – March 8 – Friday Night Fights!
Welcome to the Friday’s edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Thursday’s NBA DFS slate did not disappoint as winning GPP scores on a two game slate pushed to 370+ with cash lines over 325 as a result of some big stars having big nights. Damian Lillard (76) and Paul George (62) led the way as the top two scoring plays on the slate and winning lineups utilized a mix and match approach pairing Dame/PG13 and fading Westbrook which allowed them to utilize Myles Turner and Khris Middleton from the first game to help them win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Friday’s NBA DFS Slate Breakdown:
We are in the home stretch of the NBA DFS season and it dawned on me yesterday that three weeks from now we will have MLB DFS games to play which is really exciting. As he head towards baseball season you are going to see the interest in NBA start to dwindle especially as we see a spike in “load management” and playoff positioning injury management which will make arguably the toughest DFS sport to navigate that much tougher.
We already have been dealing with the Anthony Davis nonsense the last few weeks and we got word yesterday that LeBron James will see his minutes limited and likely sit on back to backs. Although I understand completely why this happens, it hurts the product the NBA puts out on the floor and once DFS players have another option (ie. baseball) you will see people start to make that transition.
That being said we still have a few weeks before we cross that bridge and this Friday NBA DFS slate with a big one but let me make sure you understand how FantasyDraft is attacking it because I think it will play completely differently from FanDuel and DraftKings.
We have 9 games on the NBA schedule tonight – with the lone 7PM EST games between the Mavericks/Magic and Hornets/Wizards. That Hornets/Wizards game is prime for game stacking as our Thunder Dan broke down in his FanDuel NBA breakdown today but that is exactly where you are going to need to get exposure to it because FantasyDraft has flipped the script.
FantasyDraft’s NBA slate tonight excludes those first two games – making this a 7 game slate that starts an hour later at 8PM EST and I think excluding those early games makes this a totally different strategy when trying to attack it.
Personally, I love when FantasyDraft does this – mostly because it brings a different element of strategy and those who play on FanDuel or DraftKings can lock in their rosters at 7PM EST and then head on over to FantasyDraft for a later lock and slate. Also, thanks FantasyDraft for saving me from myself and excluding the Mavericks game – no THJ for me tonight!
NBA DFS: Core Plays and Top Stars:
With a later start that excludes what will likely be a popular game in the Hornets/Wizards, this FantasyDraft slate takes on a totally different look and feel so the plays that may be cores for this format might be secondary plays on other slates.
The first game of the night is the Sixers/Rockets – one that is loaded with stars, but also injuries which opens up some potential value and higher ceilings for the players left to take the court. These two teams played back in January but frankly the composition of the rosters here tonight is going to be completely different as Chris Paul and Clint Capela did not play in that game while Joel Embiid did but neither Tobias Harris or Jimmy Butler did. So to summarize – that game log means nothing.
Tonight we already have a few big injuries in this game that will impact our builds – we know that the Sixers will be without Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic while the Rockets will be without Kenneth Faried off the bench.
On the Sixers side – I think we know what to attack at this point with Embiid out – Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler become the top three options for Philadelphia. The thing that jumps out to me is the pricing difference – Tobias and Butler sit in the high $13K range while Simmons is all the way up to $17K on FantasyDraft and now has to deal with Chris Paul defense. Amir Johnson ($7.1K) will likely continue to draw the start for the Sixers at Center and has had two strong outings in a row with 24 and 28 fantasy points against the Bulls and Magic.
On the Rockets side of this game, James Harden ($19.4K) is the most expensive play on the slate but with 3 of his last 6 games being held under 50 fantasy points, I think that even with a price tag under $20K that folks will hesitate to just lock and load him here tonight.
What makes this match-up so appealing however is the lack of rim protection for the Sixers right now that has resulted in big time games for opposing SG’s in the last week. Zach LaVine just ripped this Sixers team for 55 fantasy points and Evan Fournier went for 35 – now you get The Beard coming to down with slate breaking upside any time he steps on the floor.
Speaking of lack of rim protection – Clint Capela ($13K) looks like an exceptional mid-tier play tonight as the combination of opponent and lack of Faried to spell him will mean the Rockets big man gets all the run he can handle against a Sixers interior that should have no answer for him.
Last but not least – Chris Paul ($13.3K) – becomes another player from this game jammed into this $13K price range that when you really start to play around with builds, you realize that is makes a game stack here quite intriguing.
Think about this for a moment – you can stack Harden, Capela, CP3 and run it back with Butler and Tobias and you would still have roughly $9K for the last three spots in your roster build. If you want to expand off that stack – JJ Redick and Eric Gordon sit under $10K or you can use Amir Johnson as your salary saving punt option.
When you consider that this one of the few games where the teams are running their starters full minutes and you have an intriguing mixture of stars and under-priced plays, an early core game stack is one of the first options that jumps out to me tonight.
NBA DFS – Late Night Hammer(s):
If you really step back and look at this slate on FantasyDraft, it becomes one that seems to have extreme book-ends.
The Rockets/Sixers kick us off to start the evening and we end the night with a bang as the Warriors/Nuggets and Thunder/Clippers give us some big time playoff battle late night hammers!
Golden State and Denver are separated only by one game for the top spot in the Western Conference so this becomes an amazing game to watch between two of the best teams in the league. The hard part becomes how we attack it for DFS as both teams are deep and expected to be at full health with Klay Thompson back for the Warriors.
These two teams have played twice already this season – with stars on both sides – and take a guess how many players have gone for 50+ fantasy points in those two outings.
Surely it must be a handful – between the Joker, Curry, KD etc – well, the answer is zero.
Kevin Durant ($16.2K) and Stephen Curry ($16.4K) have gone for 46 and 47 fantasy points in both games while Nikola Jokic ($17.7K) has topped out at 46 fantasy points in two meetings.
Much like the Rockets/Sixers game – what really intrigues me here tonight is the potential for a game stack when I look at the pricing.
Sure these teams are both fully healthy which we can make the argument caps their upside but the pricing on FantasyDraft has really taken that into account and the opposing argument is that you get two teams with condensed rotations that are going to run their starters into the ground every night.
The Warriors stars in KD/Curry are priced under $17K while their “secondary” players like DeMarcus Cousins ($13.8K), Draymond Green ($11.5K) and Klay Thompson ($11.8K) are all priced reasonably. The best individual match-up is really Klay Thompson as the Nuggets rank dead last in Def-Eff to the SG position this season.
The Nuggets are running the Mike Malone rotations we have all come to know and love – if you are a starter – you are playing 30-35 a night and in a critical game for home court advantage, you think there is any chance that changes?
Jokic at $17.7K is the ONLY pricey investment here as Paul Millsap ($12.3K), Jamal Murray (12.2K) and Will Barton ($11.6K) all look like incredible values considering this is one of the top projected pace and highest scoring games on the slate.
The guy that REALLY jumps off the page though is Gary Harris ($7.6K) who finally broke through his minutes restriction and played 30 minutes against the Lakers and dropped 35 fantasy points. If Gary Harris is going to get 30+ minutes here tonight, it makes for one of the best value plays on the board.
Again – just play around with the roster builds here – lock in KD/Curry and run it back with Jokic and Harris and you have over $10.5K for the last four spots of your roster. You can easily pick and choose from a variety of the $11-$12K plays mentioned here to round out a stack in what could be a Western Conference Championship Preview.
NBA DFS – Thunder Buddies:
The other late night hammer runs back the OKC duo of Russell Westbrook ($18.9K) and Paul George ($17.8K) who are coming off a OT battle last night against Portland and step into a game tonight with the Clippers that has the slates highest total and fastest projected pace.
Interestingly enough – neither Westbrook or George has topped 60 fantasy points in their previous meetings with the Clippers this season. The obvious concern could be the fact the Thunder play on a back to back after a OT game last night but both Westbrook and George have performed consistent with their FP/G averages on B2B so the stats tell us the B2B won’t matter much at all.
From a pricing perspective, Westbrook and PG13 are two of the three most expensive plays on the slate so where we have talked about players in the other two top games being under-priced, the stars in this game seem priced appropriately for their roles and ceiling.
The other difference in this game – where the Rockets/Sixers and Nuggets/Warriors set up more as full on game stacks – the Clippers and Thunder feels like a game where you it becomes Russ/PG13 or bust. You can certainly get some secondary Clippers exposure here tonight as no player on LA is priced over $13K but I think the mid-range plays from the Nuggets/Warriors and Rockets/Sixers have more consistency and similar upside.
If you do opt to pay up for one of the Thunder stars here, you are going to need value and although I glossed over the “other games” on this slate – the one spot to grab value could be in Utah as Ricky Rubio and Raul Neto are looking questionable to play tonight which could push Royce O’ Neal ($6K) back into the starting unit.
The last time Rubio and Neto were out against the Nuggets, O’Neale started and played 39 minutes while only getting 16 fantasy points. This kind of minimum value is critical in offsetting the cost for the stars tonight so in lineups where you want to pay up for a Westbrook or PG13 – using the punt savings of someone like O’Neale opens up a ton of roster flexibility.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
I have already outlined today how I think game stacks of the Rockets/Sixers and Warriors/Nuggets is a completely viable route but on a slate with three elite games I want to have exposure to, the best bet may be picking and choosing pieces to see how it fits.
G: Chris Paul
G: Jamal Murray
G: Gary Harris
F/C: Paul George
F/C: Kevin Durant
F/C: Clint Capela
UTIL: Tobias Harris
UTIL: Royce O’Neale
Slate Overview: If you start with the value – plug-in O’Neale and Gary Harris – and work backwards, you basically have your choice of top plays from the games we outlined and I could argue any combination you come up with feels like a strong build for cash games and GPP’s.
My goal is simple – take 1-2 value plays like O’Neale and Harris and then start building around a player pool of Rockets, Sixers, Warriors, Nuggets and Thunder stars. There are so many viable routes with this player pool combination that offer you stability and massive ceilings that make this the ideal slate to bust out a few tournaments lineups and hope you hit it big!
Enjoy the slate all!
FanDuel NBA Slate Breakdown - Friday, March 8. dark. Next
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis each and every day across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.