Fansided

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday, March 9 – The Beal Deal

By Brian Tulloch

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 06: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards puts up a shot in front of Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves at Verizon Center on January 6, 2017 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 06: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards puts up a shot in front of Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves at Verizon Center on January 6, 2017 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
NBA DFS
DETROIT, MICHIGAN – FEBRUARY 04: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons blocks the shot of Mason Plumlee #24 of the Denver Nuggets during the second half at Little Caesars Arena on February 04, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) NBA DFS /

Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Friday’s NBA DFS action on FantasyDraft was a pretty “normal” night from a scoring perspective with the GPP cash line right around 300 with the winning scores at 350+ which aligns with the normal 3-3.5x multipliers we typically look for on FantasyDraft. Although the high dollar stars like Westbrook and Harden had strong nights, there were only two players who went for 60+ fantasy points, both priced in the mid-tier – Lou Williams, Andre Drummond – who set the pace from a raw points perspective.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS
WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 06: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards puts up a shot in front of Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves at Verizon Center on January 6, 2017 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Saturday’s NBA DFS Slate Breakdown:

We get a nice five game NBA DFS slate to dive into on this Saturday with some big time stars, a whole lot of huge totals and some major injury news to watch for. Of the four games we have totals for (Celtics/Lakers is in a holding pattern), the totals range from 228 to 243 but we also have 12 point spreads in two of those games as the Bucks host the Hornets and the Blazers take on the Suns.

The big injury news is really in the Celtics and Lakers game as Kyrie Irving is expected to play and the Lakers have both Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma listed as questionable. Frankly all that is secondary to the biggest news which came out a few days ago – and that is that LeBron James will have his minutes limited down the stretch.

LeBron James is the second most expensive player on the slate at $19.2K and if you are telling me his minutes are capped at 32, I just cannot make the case to force him in against a strong Celtics defense – in fact, with the blowout risk in the Bucks games, it becomes hard to make the argument for Giannis Antetokounmpo ($20K) despite how bad the Hornets have been at defending wing players.

Giannis has gone for 59, 59 and 68 fantasy points in three meetings with the Hornets this season but he played 35-40 minutes in each of those games and it is worth noting Giannis has not played more than 33 minutes in any of the Bucks last six games.

If you want to pay up for stars tonight, it may make the most sense to pivot down to the game with the highest total – the Wizards/Timberwolves – which has a massive 243 total and is projected to be the fastest pace game on the slate.

The pairing of Karl-Anthony towns ($18.5K) and Bradley Beal (17.6K) looks like a strong core foundation for two guys that just faced off and both went for 50+ fantasy points in this same exact game on March 3rd. This duo combined for 107 fantasy points in that meeting which puts them right on track to return value here tonight at these price points.

NBA DFS
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 09: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks dribbles the ball against DeMarre Carroll #9 of the Brooklyn Nets during the first quarter of the game at Barclays Center on January 9, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Building Our Core:

The Nets and Hawks is the first game on the slate and one that could end up being the key to unlocking a GPP win as we have seen these teams involved in shootouts this season including a 144-127 Nets win in their first meeting.

The only real injury news we have to watch here is the status of DeWayne Dedmon who is doubtful to play which means we get another Alex Len ($9.7K) start at Center for the Hawks. The Hawks big man duo of Len and John Collins ($13.5K) look to be setup perfectly for a huge night against the Nets front court and we have seen the Hawks bigs absolutely dominate in these earlier season meetings.

Collins has dropped 43 and 52 fantasy points in the first two meetings while Dewayne Dedmon was able to match Collins 52 point outing the first time these two teams met. The takeaway here for me is that the Hawks frontcourt can both flash ceiling games in this match-up so I think pairing Len and Collins is a viable first step.

The duo that basically defines GPP strategy here though is in the back court of D’Angelo Russell and Trae Young who are priced at identical $14.9K price tags here tonight. Russell and Young are high volume scorers – shooters with the non-stop green light and you can see in recent games where the upside just jumps off the page.

Russell even with a fully healthy Nets roster around him has managed to put up 20 and 24 shot attempts in two of his last four games while Trae Young has chucked it 24 and 33 times in that stretch.

This duo is the absolute definition of upside. 

Now, this duo has also a very tenuous floor, so let’s not simply overlook that because at 15K per player they need 45 fantasy points to “hit value” which is a mark that neither has hit in either of their last three games.

All that being said, I love the idea of a Collins-Len-Trae stack and running it back with D’Angelo Russell in GPP’s here tonight.

One of the nice parts of this game is we have some intriguing value plays who are a really solid minutes floor.

The Nets are rolling out Allen Crabbe ($6.4K) in the starting line-up each night as he has played 25 and 29 minutes the last two games but has seen his shooting volume lag with the return of Dinwiddie and LeVert. Ed Davis ($6.1K) may not be the sexiest roster but this is a guy with 12 and 10 rebounds in each of his last two games, playing 20 minutes a night and has put up 31 and 31.5 fantasy points in the two previous meetings with the Hawks this season.

On the Atlanta side, with the Hawks being without Dedmon, Alex Polythress and Omari Spellman – there is going to be the opportunity for solid minutes from the secondary plays on the Hawks even with the return of Taurean Prince who played 19 minutes last game.

Kent Bazemore, Vince Carter and De’Andre Bembry all played 20-28 minutes off the bench last game and although Bazemore is too pricey (over $10K), VC and Bembry are both priced under $7K here tonight. Kevin Huerter ($7.6K) is another cheap play here who put up 31 fantasy points the last time these two met and has played 23-30 minutes in each of his last five games.

To me this game has a ton of GPP appeal – you have 2-3 guys that have slate breaking raw point upside and there is enough punt value with 20+ minute upside that depending on the site, makes it rather easy to mix and match here tonight.

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 05: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards drives between John Collins #20 and Alex Len #25 of the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on December 5, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 05: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards drives between John Collins #20 and Alex Len #25 of the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on December 5, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a Plug and play lineup. 

More from FanSided

G: Bradley Beal

G: D’Angelo Russell

G: Trae Young

F/C: Karl-Anthony Towns

F/C: John Collins

F/C: DeAndre Bembry

UTIL: Allen Crabbe

UTIL: Vince Carter

Slate Overview: This slate breaks down very simply to me – I think prioritizing a KAT/Beal mini-stack and building around the Nets and Hawks makes the most sense.

The Celtics and Lakers game with the injury/rest news seems like a stay away spot and the Bucks and Blazers have some serious blowout risk in the late night hammers so it may be the the path of least resistance to take two “second tier” stars in the early game and build around the GPP upside of Brooklyn and Atlanta.

I will be taking Sunday off but will be back Monday with more Picks and Pivots.

Next. DraftKings NBA DFS Picks - Saturday, March 9. dark

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis!