Good day and greetings from your NCAA Basketball Bets to win host. Saturday provides several opportunities to take advantage of a weak number.
Friday our NCAA Basketball Bets went 3-2 pushing the overall record to 113-91-2.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.
Lines are very important and are key to creating value. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
All times Eastern, here we go with our NCAA basketball bets to win:
Auburn +2 versus Tennessee, Noon
Saturday starts off with a great game as the #4 ranked Volunteers visit the unranked but strong at home Auburn Tigers. As good as Tennessee is, they have dropped the last 3 road games to the number while Auburn has gone 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games.
The power rating shows Tennessee as a 4 point favorite; this will keep most of the public action on Tennessee and hopefully tilt the line toward them. The line opened pick and is moving quickly higher.
Seton Hall +3 versus Villanova, Noon
Seton Hall will be looking to avenge a bad road loss to Villanova this season and I think they can do it. Villanova has a sharp division between home and away, more than normal. Straight up they are 13-2 at home and only 5-5 on the road.
In addition, common opponents in home/away analysis shows decidedly Seton Hall is the better team at home against visiting Villanova. As with Tennessee above, Villanova will get most of the public action but not the cover.
NCAA Basketball Bets To Win – Jayhawks Blast Bears
Boston College +2 1/2 versus NC State, 2 pm
Boston College took NC State to overtime on the road as a 10 point underdog in February, and now they come home with good common opponent results looking for a win.
BC owns some very good trends in the series, including taking the last 7 games ATS in Boston College. NC State holds the edge in the power rating number, indicating they should be favored by 4 points. This will keep the public on the small favorite and hopefully move the line higher.
Kansas -7 versus Baylor, 2 pm
Kansas has been too good at home and Baylor too inconsistent on the road to pass this up. The power rating shows Kansas -8 but the difference for Kansas home/away is dramatic and skews the base rating accordingly.
Kansas straight up is 15-0 at home and 3-8 on the road. They are also 4-0 on a neutral court so don’t discount them automatically for the March Madness playoffs.
ATS factors against Baylor – they are poor against good teams, poor recently and 0-4 their last 4 in their own division, the big 12. ATS factors for Kansas – good recently, very good putting away below average teams and have already won and covered this season against Baylor.
Common opponent analysis including the home/away factor indicates a 15 point win for Kansas, and that is enough of an edge to warrant a wager. This time we lay the favorite.
Central Florida +1 versus Temple, 4 pm
UCF is on a tremendous ATS run, covering 8 in a row and winning 7 of those outright. My strategy has been to continue with a trend such as this except when either the power rating number is inflated or the public smothers the team with wagers.
Neither is the case here today. The power rating actually has UCF winning by 3, and so far the public has a majority backing on Temple. These conditions are enough to keep me on the surging ATS team, Central Florida.
NCAA Basketball Bets To Win – Duke Surprises North Carolina
Duke +3 1/2 versus North Carolina, 6 pm
This line opened 2 1/2, has climbed to 3 1/2 and could go even higher. Duke was involved in a near disaster last time out as they barely won by 1 point at home against Wake Forest as a 25 point favorite.
Meanwhile North Carolina continues to roll, racking up wins but more importantly winning against Duke. In mid February UNC won by 16 at Duke as a 10 point dog. So why like Duke today?
The near loss to Wake was a clear case of looking ahead. Duke had just defeated Miami at home by 30 as a 14 point favorite and felt they could relax a little against Wake while preparing for North Carolina. It nearly backfired, but nearly does not count (except of course to the spread).
This is a huge game for both sides as Duke desperately wants to redeem itself both in the rankings and against their rival UNC, while the Tar Heels want to show the basketball world this year’s team is no fluke and they can dominate Duke.
A huge factor is the base power rating. Duke is projected by that measure to win this game by 4 points. It has been severely tilted because of last week’s game, the dominance of UNC over Duke, and the linesmaker’s correct conclusion that the public will be all over UNC.
As of this writing, anywhere from 75% to 84% of all wagers are being placed on UNC. This is a huge percentage play by the public especially since the spread on the game is very close and they are going against a top team that they normally back heavily.
Both teams as a percentage of wins and losses are actually slightly better on the road, so there really is no home field advantage here. Duke is 10-3 ATS in North Carolina the last 13 games played there, and the road team in the series is 18-7 in the most recent 25 games played.
Although I am not recommending a total play, for those interested ALL the trends on this game point to the under, including the under has gone 4-0 last four meetings in the series.
NCAA Basketball Bets To Win – Can Elon upset Wilmington?
Elon +3 versus NC Wilmington, 6:30 pm
Looking at this closely, the opening line was 2 1/2 and has not seen much action with most of the attention in this time slot focused on the UNC/Duke game. The power rating has UNCW favored by 3 appearing to be a static affair with not much to go on. Both teams have had disappointing seasons.
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However common opponent analysis reveals a consistent advantage for Elon along with winning outright both games against UNCW this season as underdogs in each. It appears to me Elon has a distinct advantage where it counts while the overall power rating places UNCW as the favorite.
Another trend of note is Wilmington plays very poorly ATS overall against weak teams while that is Elon’s only strength, playing very well ATS against weak teams.
Air Force +10 versus Boise State, 7 pm
The Falcons have been playing very well ATS wise as of late, covering 4 in a row after playing poorly for most of the season. Boise for their part has dropped 7 of 10 ATS recently including losing 3 of 4 at home.
The current line does reflect the true power rating number but does not factor in the mini ATS streak Air Force is on. Let’s give the dog a try for value here.
Middle Tennessee State -8 versus UTEP, 8:30 pm
UTEP has been sliding on a dismal run with their depleted team and the power rating has not yet caught up to this new lower level. Three days ago UTEP hosted M Tenn and lost by 16 points on a pick game.
I believe this contest holds enough of an advantage to lay the favorite. Sixteen seems to be a more accurate number than eight.
Furman -10 versus Mercer, 8:30 pm
Furman has been on a tear recently covering 8 of 9 while Mercer is the polar opposite, dropping 8 of 9 ATS. The power rating itself predicts a 16 point win for Furman and they have won and covered both games against Mercer this season.
The linesmaker did extend the opener to 11, which is definitely on the high side of their earlier in the season price points, and has now dropped to 10. I was hoping the line would open 8, but laying 10 is still good enough for value.
That’s it for today.