DraftKings Early NBA Picks March 10: Embiid will rule the slate if he plays

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 14: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks dribbles against the Boston Celtics during the first quarter at TD Garden on December 14, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early NBA Picks March 10: Embiid will rule the slate if he plays

There are nine games today, but DraftKings chopped this slate up. The noon eastern game is showdown only. The other two afternoon games make up the DraftKings NBA early slate. Then we have the six game night extravaganza. Don’t ignore this early slate though! There is money to be made!

Nine of my ten lines made it over 250 last night, but only two topped the cash line of 292.75. However, one of those lineups ended up at 350, so at least I won my money back.

goblue112 took this down with 386.25 DraftKings points, 9.5 ahead of second place. He built with Collins, Towns, and a triple double from Trae Young. He also got huge value out of Dinwiddie, Rodions Kurucs, Jarrett Allen, and Moritz Wagner.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 in free DraftKings entry tickets with your first deposit of $5 or more.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 15: Josh Okogie #20 talks with teammate Ben Simmons #25 of the World Team during the 2019 Mtn Dew ICE Rising Stars at Spectrum Center on February 15, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

The Indiana guard defense is outstanding, and there is a chance that Embiid returns today. If he does, that affects our entire build. If Embiid is in, I want no part of Ben Simmons. Even if Embiid is out, I have a hard time wanting to play Simmons. The price isn’t horrible, but the matchup is. Simmons is still going to get decent numbers, but this is a much better spot to attack with other parts of the Philly offense.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Lowry has a tough matchup as well, but there is still a lot of temptation to use him. Kawhi Leonard is out for load management, which means said load is squarely on Lowry’s shoulders. This Kawhi news is great because it means we have a lot of value regardless of the status of Embiid. Lowry is reasonably priced, and his usage is massive with Leonard out. I’m going to use him anyway.

The return of Dragic really hasn’t affected Justise Winslow at all. Now it’s time for the re-return. Dragic is supposedly healthy again. You guys didn’t know Dragic was out again, did you? It’s easy to forget because Winslow’s production has been solid anyway. The Heat are going to limit Dragic. That makes me want to use Winslow even more.

Dark Horses:

Despite how well Darren Collison has played lately, this is a spot to avoid him. Collison has only averaged 18.4 DraftKings points in three games with Philly while playing a little over half the game. Collison will likely top 30 minutes here, but he’s not going to top the 28 DraftKings points we need.

Goran Dragic was limited to just 16 minutes on Friday against Cleveland. It seems likely that he wont play much if any over 20 minutes tonight, so the instincts say avoid. If Dragic was only around $4,000, I would at least think about it. I wont at $4,700 though.

Cory Joseph has struggled lately, but the minutes are still there, and he has had solid success against Philly this year. This is a risk with Joseph only playing about half the game, but he can put up points in a hurry. That gives him the good upside that we want in a value pick.

My pick: Lowry(PG), Winslow(G); Lowry(PG)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 06: Jimmy Butler #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots against the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on March 06, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jimmy Butler erupted on Indiana for 51.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting, so yeah, I’m turning to Butler over Simmons. Butler is also cheap enough that we can roll with him regardless of what the status of Embiid is. I haven’t played Butler much at all this year, but this looks like one of the best spots to do it.

Honorable Mention:

Dwyane Wade has done some of his best work against Toronto this year. Wade has 76.5 DraftKings points in just 57 minutes over two games against the Raptors. Wade’s farewell tour rolls on, and he puts up 5x value constantly with the potential for a lot more. He’s a great GPP target right now on any size slate.

JJ Redick can go cold at any time. Honestly, Redick was abysmal against Houston on Friday. Usually Redick’s shooting woes don’t last more than a game. That is what has given him a strong pro career. He has averaged 27.5 DraftKings points in three games against the Pacers this year. that makes Redick worth the price here.

Dark Horses:

The inconsistency of Dion Waiters has led to inconsistency in his minutes as well. When you have guys like Wade and Richardson playing well, not to mention how well Winslow has played at the point, that gives the Heat no incentive to play a guy who’s not helping. The return of Dragic just makes things worse. Waiters is a huge risk right now.

Wesley Matthews is a constant 21-28 DraftKings points. Nine straight games to be exact. There isn’t much upside here, but you know exactly what you are going to get.

My pick: Butler(SG), Wade(UTIL); Wade(SG), Matthews(G)

NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 14: Josh Richardson #0 of the Miami Heat shoots despite defense from Rondae Hollis-Jefferson #24 and Joe Harris #12 of the Brooklyn Nets during second quarter of the game at Barclays Center on November 14, 2018 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

The best five at the top here are either injured (Leonard) or primarily play another position. That doesn’t mean that you have choose someone else or that there aren’t good options here.

Josh Richardson has only been under 29 DraftKings points once in the last eight games. His average against Toronto this year is 32.6 in two prior games, which is right where he should be. This would point to Richardson being a cash game play. That’s true. However, on a small slate like this, it could lead to low ownership in GPP’s. If you’ve tracked winning lineups on small slates like this, one thing is constant. Sure, you have to hit on that crazy pick, but there is also at least one consistently solid guy just like Richardson.

Honorable Mention:

Forget all the past stats with Bojan Bogdanovic. He is nearly automatic with Oladipo out, and DraftKings still hasn’t raised his price above $6,000 despite the high volume and Bojan constantly crushing value. For the price, you’re going to be hard pressed to do any better.

Dark Horses:

Danny Green is a guy to use with Leonard out. Green isn’t going to break the slate, but he is way too cheap at $3,900. Green should hit 6x value without a problem and could get as high as 8x.

If Norman Powell draws the start, he’s worth looking at too. Powell has at least 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five starts. He is just $3,100! That’s a great return on the investment there.

My pick: Richardson(SF), Bogdanovic(F); Bogdanovic(SF), Green(UTIL)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 13: Tobias Harris #33 of the Philadelphia 76ers celebrates his three point shot in the second half against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on February 13, 2019 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

By the numbers, this isn’t a great matchup for Tobias Harris. He fits well with Philly, but he isn’t always a strong play for fantasy purposes. My feeling on this game regardless of the status of Embiid is to attack Indiana on the wings. Leave the entire middle, including the point, alone. That would make Butler and Redick the guys to target since we can’t really leave one whole game alone on a two game slate.

Pascal Siakam is is about as solid as they come. He has less upside with Gasol around, but he still has at least 5x value at this price in four of the last five games. Siakam has 66.25 DraftKings points in two games against Miami this year. That’s right about where we want him.

Honorable Mention:

Thaddeus Young has at least 33 DraftKings points in seven of the last ten games. With Sabonis likely still out, there is no reason not to use Young here. Thad has averaged 33.9 DraftKings points in 30 minutes in the three games against Philly this year. Young looks like a nice bargain here.

Kelly Olynyk is putting up some really good numbers for the Heat lately. The Heat are pretty stacked up front, but right now Olynyk is the only one separating himself. That makes him the only one worthy of DFS consideration.

Dark Horses:

The Sixers have taken a committee approach with Embiid out. Jonah Bolden is starting, and is likely the best play from a fantasy standpoint, but Mike Scott gets enough minutes to make him worth a value play. If Embiid plays, it blows all of those out of the water, and really gives us no suitable value plays unless you want to play roulette with Kyle O’Quinn.

My pick: Young(PF); Siakam(PF), Young(F)

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 16: Serge Ibaka #9 of the Toronto Raptors plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on December 16, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid has destroyed the Pacers for an average of 58.3 DraftKings points per game in the three meetings so far. If Embiid plays with no restrictions, he is easily the top play on the slate. It isn’t even close. If Philly limits his minutes, which is likely considering Embiid has missed the last eight games, we have a tough decision to make. Can Embiid get 50 DraftKings points against Indiana in 25 minutes? I have my doubts.