DraftKings Main NBA Picks March 10: Should we pay for Harden?

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 14: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks dribbles against the Boston Celtics during the first quarter at TD Garden on December 14, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Main NBA Picks March 10: Should we pay for Harden?

There are nine games today, but DraftKings chopped this slate up. The noon eastern game is showdown only. The other two afternoon games make up the DraftKings NBA early slate. Then we have the six game night extravaganza. Don’t ignore this early slate though! There is money to be made!

Nine of my ten lines made it over 250 last night, but only two topped the cash line of 292.75. However, one of those lineups ended up at 350, so at least I won my money back.

goblue112 took this down with 386.25 DraftKings points, 9.5 ahead of second place. He built with Collins, Towns, and a triple double from Trae Young. He also got huge value out of Dinwiddie, Rodions Kurucs, Jarrett Allen, and Moritz Wagner.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 25: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after a play against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on February 25, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Once again, we are in a situation where it’s a great matchup for Stephen Curry, but there is blowout potential. Still, Curry has averaged 49.8 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes per game in three games against the Suns. The blowout potential eats some of the upside, but as we can see, Curry doesn’t need big minutes to do big damage.

Our next decision comes down to which rookie we would rather have if we move off of Curry. Luka Doncic has been solid against Houston this year, but solid isn’t good enough. Not when solid is 35 DraftKings points and Doncic costs $8,800. Trae Young, fresh off his first career triple double, is the easy choice here, especially when you consider his matchup against the Pelicans.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Paul has 84 DraftKings points in 67 minutes against Dallas this year. With Harden’s wrist bugging him at the end of the game on Friday, Paul may end up taking on a slightly expanded role. All signs point to Harden playing, but if his wrist is bugging, this is still a CP3 game.

Mike Conley has back to back games of more than 50 DraftKings points. I mentioned earlier this week that their strong numbers defensively against points guards is misleading. Orlando’s in the bottom ten since the break. The Lakers may be resting everyone, but Memphis is not. Apparently they are going to run Conley around 35 minutes per game still.

Derrick White has four straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. It took a while, but it appears as if White has become pretty consistent. However, this is not a great matchup for White, and Eric Bledsoe racked up 45 DraftKings points on the Spurs in the first meeting. This should be a spot to fade White in favor of Bledsoe.

Dark Horses:

Jeff Teague was a disappointment last night, but if both Wiggins and KAT are out, who else is going to step up for Minnesota? I trust Teague a lot more than any of the Knicks’ point guards. Elfrid Payton is probably a better play than all of them with Jrue Holiday out.

Tyler Johnson has three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points for the Suns, but can we really trust him against the Warriors? I would say that both Delon Wright and Frank Jackson are both better plays here. I don’t trust Johnson in this game.

Ian Clark could be an interesting play if you need to go really cheap. Of course, if Moore returns Clark fades back to obscurity. If Moore and Holiday are both out, Clark should play about half the game again, which gives him nice upside for the price.

My pick: Young(PG), Jackson(G); Payton(PG)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 27: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts after a play against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on February 27, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden has been been strong lately and really good against Dallas this year. Harden says his wrist is fine. The team thinks the wrist is fine. I’m nervous about this. I fade guys priced this high that make me nervous on principal alone, but Harden is the one guy that can break the slate.

Devin Booker has at least 35 DraftKings points in every game since the All Star break. He has averaged 38.1 per game in two games against the Warriors. I trust Booker more than DeRozan, but I’m still not convinced he’s going to be worth the price. However, due to his recent consistency, I can get on board playing Booker in cash games.

Honorable Mention:

Klay Thompson was on fire against Denver. This team is starting to hit their stride, and Thompson is one of the few key contributors that actually looks cheap. He is also the only starter that consistently runs with the second team before Kerr empties the bench. Klay is one of my favorite plays at the position again tonight.

Kelly Oubre has only been under 30 DraftKings points once as a member of the Suns. Oubre consistently goes well over 5x value, and has 50+ DraftKings points upside. I think I even like Oubre better than Klay tonight. He’s the only Sun I have real interest in.

There only certain things in life are death, taxes, and Malcolm Brogdon in cash games. There are a lot of great GPP options out there tonight, but for cash, you aren’t going to get any more consistent than Brogdon.

Dark Horses:

Forget this whole Atlanta off guard mess. There are too many guys getting too many minutes. Derrick Rose had a predictably big game with Wiggins out, and will again tonight if Wiggins is out as expected.

You could take a shot with Terrence Ross in a good matchup with Memphis , but Rose is far more reliable with Wiggins out. I don’t trust Tim Hardaway Jr either, and the Knicks are…..well….the Knicks. I’m not fully off the Avery Bradley wagon yet. This is a good bounceback opportunity against the Magic.

If you need to go cheaper yet, Mikal Bridges continues to be a sure 20 DraftKings points for the Suns. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but the Suns are going to keep running him down the stretch. Running him enough to give him value at this low of a price.

My pick: Thompson(SG), Oubre(SF), Rose(UTIL); Oubre(SG), Rose(G)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 25: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after a play against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on February 25, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Despite the great matchup on paper, Kevin Durant has been a complete dud against the Suns. Durant has 100 DraftKings points in three games against Phoenix this year. That isn’t even 4x value!

DeMar DeRozan exploded for 52 DraftKings points in the first game against the Bucks, but that seems like an eternity ago. Derrick White was as non factor in that game. So was Aldridge. Don’t expect that to be the case here. You couldn’t pay me to play DeRozan tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Rudy Gay has been a solid contributor for the Spurs this year. I see him more of a cash game play since he doesn’t have a lot of upside anymore. The Spurs are still in the playoff hunt, and are resting their key players as much as they can. Gay wont play more than 30 minutes, and that destroys his upside.

Jonathan Isaac continues to be a strong contributor for the Magic, but he also has little upside. SF is actually a pretty weak position for having six games available. There are plenty of cash game options, but no one stands out as someone I really want to play in a GPP format.

Dark Horses:

The Pelicans are throwing in the towel. Holiday isn’t playing. Anthony Davis is playing very sparingly, and I expect the Pelicans to sit him down as soon as the league lets them. So it’s no surprise that Kenrich Williams is back to fantasy relevance. Williams has 82 DraftKings points over the last three games. He should be safe to use as a value pick again.

DraftKings is certainly making it tough to pay for the upside of Mirotic and Kevin Knox here. You need a ceiling game from them with the minutes they are getting. Not only does that mean they are unlikely to hit value. It also means that there is almost no upside.

With Luol Deng out, the Timberwolves ran Keita Bates-Diop out there for his first career start over Josh Okogie. That turned out to be a great idea. KBD put up 23.25 DraftKings points in that game. If he starts for Wiggins again, he needs to be your value play at just $3,100.

My pick: N/A; Williams(SF), Bates-Diop(UTIL)

CHARLOTTE, NC – OCTOBER 17: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts before their game against the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center on October 17, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis ruined the Spurs with 74.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting this year. That kind of upside is enough to let us fade Harden and feel pretty good about doing it. However, I do worry about the Bucks being paced down here. The Bucks are a better, and deeper, team than they were then. I don’t expect a repeat performance.

Honorable Mention:

John Collins went berserk on the Nets. Big surprise, right? The Hawks limited Collins to 30 minutes in that one, so I am a little nervous that Atlanta may rest Collins outright here. If he does play 30 minutes again though, this is a great matchup against the Pelicans.

Aaron Gordon is putting up solid numbers lately, but I still don’t trust him. Maybe I’m permanently scarred. This is a sneaky good matchup against a depleted Memphis front. The rest of the middle tier of power forward is a scrap heap of injured players. If you don’t plan on going for value, just pay for Giannis.

Dark Horses:

I’m a huge fan of Cheick Diallo if Anthony Davis is out again. Diallo isn’t starting, but he is putting up huge numbers in small minutes. He’s a great play for just $4,800.

Taj Gibson destroyed the Knicks for 41 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Gibson is outplaying Saric right now, and the Knicks are without Noah Vonleh here too. This is a huge spot for Gibson that gets even bigger if Towns is out.

Lance Thomas started against the Kings yesterday and put up a solid 19.75 DraftKings points. Lance is so cheap that total was still worth 6x value. He’s worth a shot if you need to save this much.

My pick: Diallo(PF); Antetokounmpo(PF), Collins(F)

DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns was a monster against the Wizards last night, putting up 72 DraftKings points before being forced from the game in the fourth quarter. The Timberwolves aren’t going to push Towns, especially against a team like the Knicks where they probably don’t need him anyway. If Towns plays, I want him, but I kind of think Minnesota has no reason to play him.

Nikola Vucevic is an outstanding consolation prize if Towns sits. Hey, even if you don’t trust the knee, Vucevic is a strong play against an undersized Memphis front.