NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: TicketGuardian 500 Sunday 3/10/19

Welcome to NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the TicketGuardian 500 ISM Raceway in Phoenix, AZ. This is a fast track with a lot of passing opportunities and some good fun wide open racing.

Kevin Harvick won this race last year, followed closely by Kyle Busch, and then Chase Elliot, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. rounded out the top 5.  For last week’s NASCAR DFS, we were in Las Vegas where Joey Logano won the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, his 22nd Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series victory.

This week as we head to  Arizona for the TicketGuardian we will be looking to see if we get a 4th different driver to win a points race this season following Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and the aforementioned Logano.

Kyle Busch dominated Saturdays NASCAR Xfinity Series race and will look to continue his domination at ISM Raceway today.

NASCAR DFS: Vegas Odds 

Kevin Harvick #4   +275
Kyle Busch #18   +375
Brad Keselowski #2   +750
Joey Logano #22   +850
Chase Elliott #9   +1100
Martin Truex, Jr. #19   +1100
Denny Hamlin #11   +1600
Kyle Larson #42   +1800
Aric Almirola #10   +2200
Clint Bowyer #14   +2500
Erik Jones #20   +2500

NASCAR DFS: Leaders of the Pack

Kevin Harvick ($12,800) 

Qualifying Position: 8th

Kevin Harvick has been dominant at ISM Raceway in his career, and especially over the last 4 races here. Harvick has an average finish at Phoenix of 4.3 which is second best among active drivers during that span and has led 111 laps over the same 4 race span, 4th best among active drivers.

Kyle Busch ($ 12,200) 

Qualifying Position: 4th

There is only one driver who’s been better than Harvick has at Phoenix, and that would be Mr. Busch and his #18 Joe Gibbs M&M’s Toyota. Busch has an average finish of 3.3 and runs an outstanding 98.8% of his last 4 races here inside the top 15.

I am pretty confident that either Busch or Harvick will win this race but the question is which one. If I had to pick one, I would go with Busch because of how well he ran on Saturday and he just looks extremely confident on the track. There is a way to fit both Busch and Harvick, but that strategy is probably better left for GPP’s.

Aric Almirola ($9,600)

Qualifying Position: 14th

After getting caught up in a wreck at Daytona, Almirola has finished inside the top ten in both Atlanta and Vegas. In final practice on Saturday Almirola ran 5th best and his fastest lap was just over a quarter of a second behind the fasted time of Joey Logano. Almirola does have a pretty good track record at ISM with an average finish of 9.3 over the last 2 years here.

Other options(qualifying position in parenthesis): Joey Logano (12th), Martin Truex Jr. (9)

NASCAR DFS: Middle of the Pack

Chase Elliott ($9,300)

Qualifying Position: 2nd

Elliott has some great track history here, and I think that if Busch or Harvick doesn’t win, Elliott could be the one who steals it from them. In the last 4 races at ISM Elliott has led 156 laps here and averages a 10th place finish.

Kurt Busch ($8,800) 

Qualifying Position:16th

Older brother Kurt has a pretty fast car this weekend and finished up final practice with the 8th fastest lap and also the 8th best 10 lap average. Much like most drivers, Busch got caught up in a wreck at Daytona, but has managed to finish inside the top 5 in the last 2 races

Ryan Blaney ($8,200) 

Qualifying Position: 1st

Blaney will start on the pole today and should be able to stay out front for a while. Even though he hasn’t had a great start to the season but he could easily run some laps out front today and end up with a top 5 finish. With his price at $8,200 you don’t need Blaney to win, but if he finishes top 5 and runs out front for a little he could get you the 40-50 points you need to make value

Other Options: Jimmie Johnson (15)

NASCAR DFS: Back of the Pack

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)

Qualifying Position: 28th

Suarez started off his weekend with a pit lane fight with Michael McDowell after a qualifying wreck caused him to land in 28th, but that could be to our advantage. Suarez has a car that ran inside the top 20 all day in both practice sessions on Saturday and he looks like a driver who could pick you up 10-12 place differential points.

Paul Menard ($6,800) 

Qualifying Position: 17th

Menard ran the 16th best lap in practice on Saturday and the 17th best 10 lap average, so it seems his car is running right in his qualifying spot.

Chris Buescher ($6,600)

Qualifying Position: 22nd

Buescher was fastest in Saturday’s first practice for the Ticket Guardian 500 at ISM Raceway. In the final practice run Buescher ran 21st but we can see by the first practice that Buescher does have a fast car and will have a chance to pick up some fast lap points and positive place differential points. Buescher has averaged 46 DKFP per race in the last two races as well.

Other Options:  Ricky Stenhouse Jr (19) ,Ty Dillon (20), David Ragan (29),

NASCAR DFS: Place Differential Play

Kyle Larson ($9,900)

Qualifying Position: 31st

Larson has had a fast car the last few weeks and even led 142 laps in Atlanta 2 weeks prior, but just had a bad qualifying session on Friday night. Starting 31st is not ideal for Larson, but for us DFS players its place differential gold(en Arches). Larson has an average finish in Phoenix of 15.8 and has led 69 laps here.

NASCAR DFS: Core Plays

Real Simple this week with the core plays, play either Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick and go from there. I am going to start my personal lineup with a Busch brothers stack, and then my place differential driver, Kyle Larson. There’s an inadvertent theme here if you picked up on it. Now, if you want to go that direction it only leaves you $6,366 per driver left, but if the top 3 perform like they should and you can get 25-35 points from the back of pack drivers you should be in the money.

Thank you for reading my NASCAR DFS Pit Stop article this week and make sure you look for my daily NHL DFS Man Advantage piece each night of the NHL schedule. Be sure to check out Fantasy CPR daily for all your DFS needs, and remember all content is ALWAYS FREE here!