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College baseball games of the week: Litmus tests on tap for Top 10 teams

By Brett Gibbons

OMAHA, NE - JUNE 16: Mississippi State's Hunter Stovall (13) scores the only run on a walk off win against Washington during game 2 of the College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by John Peterson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
OMAHA, NE - JUNE 16: Mississippi State's Hunter Stovall (13) scores the only run on a walk off win against Washington during game 2 of the College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by John Peterson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Week 5 presents a number of litmus test matchups for several of the nation’s top college baseball teams.

Buckle in, Week 5 presents some of the most loaded action you’ll see all season. With conference play starting up, the juggernauts of the SEC, Big 12, and Pac-12 begin tough-nosed series that will start to shape the College World Series picture, over three months in advance. Get ready for a full slate of ranked matchups from Tuesday to Sunday and some entertaining baseball.

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 8 Louisville

Mar. 12-13

Winners of eight of their last nine games, Ole Miss is starting to find their rhythm. The Rebels are swinging for the fences, hitting 16 home runs in their first 12 games (t-11th), and scoring 8.5 runs per game (16th). However, they dropped their only game against a ranked opponent when they hosted No. 14 East Carolina on March 6, losing 3-2. If Ole Miss hopes to get back on track against No. 8 Louisville, their bats will have to be alive.

Bringing the bats against Louisville won’t be an easy task, as the Cardinals’ pitching staff is only allowing 2.25 runs per game (t-24th). They’re also averaging a staggering 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings (11th). The scoring, though, needs some work, as Louisville is only averaging 6.2 runs per game (100th) and a 0.275 team batting average (94th).

Louisville has an opportunity to improve their offensive numbers against an Ole Miss rotation that ranks just 160th in ERA. If they can keep up their dominant pitching, the Cardinals should be good to go in this series. Ole Miss, however, will be looking to make a statement for the Top 10 and begin their run for Omaha.

No. 11 Florida State at No. 5 Florida

Mar. 12

Until this past weekend, Florida State had yet to lose a baseball game. Among their dominance have come blowouts of 11-0, 16-3, and 24-2 and the team ranks 5th in scoring with 10.3 runs per game. The Seminoles have an impressive 0.586 slugging percentage (2nd)  and have already hit 21 home runs (4th). On top of heavy hitters, the Florida State pitching staff has been lights-out; the rotation has an ERA of 2.59 (34th) and a WHIP of 0.99 (8th).

Florida finished as one of the best teams in 2018, making it to Omaha where they were eventually upended by runner-up Arkansas; the Gators also finished 3-0 against Florida State. However, they were the victim of a three-game losing streak to in-state opponents, which the Gators had previously dominated. All five of Florida’s losses have come to in-state opponents.

With Florida State being the hottest team in baseball, they could continue the in-state struggles for Florida. The Gator pitching staff is continuing their elite play in 2019, giving up just 3.17 runs per game (56th) and will look to cool down the red-hot bats of the Seminoles. These two teams are some of the best this season and this mid-week rivalry game has some high stakes. You won’t want to miss this one.

No. 7 Mississippi State at No. 5 Florida

Mar. 15-17

Mississippi State is one of the hottest teams in baseball and owners of an 11 game win streak. Their only loss of the season came on a 1-0 ballgame decided in extra innings. Both the pitching and hitting are on fire, with the Bulldogs ranking in the top 25 in both scoring and team ERA. State’s pitching corps has an ERA of 1.69 and has yet to allow more than four runs in a game this year.

Outside of a three-game skid to bring the Gators to 3-3, Florida has been getting the job done. The offense has shown signs of true explosiveness, hanging 15 or more runs four times (including a 28-run drubbing of Winthrop). Florida is also averaging 7.4 runs per game (48th) and have hit 13 home runs (t-24th). The offense will really be tested in this series against Mississippi State’s phenomenal pitching.

If Florida hopes to get a huge statement win against Mississippi State, they will have to put bats on balls and shut down their wildly efficient hitting. The Bulldogs have already made statement wins against No. 14 Texas Tech and No. 18 East Carolina and look to continue their roll against ranked teams. The Gators will have to rise to the occasion and clean up both sides of the plate if they hope to slow Mississippi State’s tear.

No. 14 Texas Tech at No. 11 Texas

Mar. 15-17

Texas Tech has stumbled a couple of times out of the gate in 2019, going 0-2 in the Frisco Classic and fighting off a hard series against Oregon. Nonetheless, Tech has proved to be resilient in comeback wins against SDSU and Wichita State and has posted a 11-4 record. The relentless offense is at it again this season, averaging 8.6 runs per game (15th).

There has been no rest in this wild stretch of the season for the Longhorns. In consecutive weekends, Texas faced No. 2 LSU, No. 6 Stanford and now No. 14 Texas Tech (followed by No. 15 Arkansas and No. 23 TCU). Inconsistency has plagued the Longhorns, who swept LSU following a 10-7 loss against UTSA at home. The success of this ball club depends on what team shows up: the team that averaged eight runs per game against a stifling Tiger defense or the team that surrenders a 6-0 lead in one  inning.

The Red Raiders have the potential to hang a lot of runs on Texas during this weekend’s series, and the Longhorns better be ready to respond and score fast. While Texas has vastly more practice against ranked teams this year (4-3) than Tech (0-1), Tech has shown much more consistency. Regardless, this will be an entertaining series that demands your attention.

No. 4 Oregon State at No. 2 UCLA

Mar. 15-17

Despite being shut out in the series finale against West Virginia, Oregon State has been perfect. The pitching is continuing to baffle offenses and besides giving up five runs in their season opener, have yet to give up more than four runs in a game. Playing away at No. 2 UCLA will prove to be the toughest test of the season yet for the Beavers. In 2018, Oregon State won the closing series of the regular season against UCLA 2-1.

However, this is a different UCLA club. The pitching staff ranks third in the country in team ERA with just 0.84 runs allowed per game and allows less than one runner on base per inning with a WHIP of 0.79 (2nd). The pitching is efficient, too, with the team averaging 4.5 strikeouts per walk issued (6th). These historic numbers are making the Bruins a serious contender to get to Omaha in June.

While this series will feature many 1, 2, 3 innings and not a lot of hits, it will be one of the premier pitching showcases of the season. With a combined 1.55 ERA between the teams, scoring will stay low and the games close. Rather than being a potential snooze fest, though, UCLA and Oregon State should put up a nail-biting, edge-of-your-seat game of chess that will ultimately come down to who can capitalize on rare mistakes.

Honorable Mentions:

  • No. 1 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas A&M (Mar. 15-17)
  • No. 9 Georgia at No. 24 South Carolina (Mar. 15-17
  • No. 11 Florida State at No. 22 NC State (Mar. 15-17)
  • No. 25 Tennessee at No. 19 Auburn (Mar. 15-17)