DFS NBA – The Top Salary Value Plays – Crown The Young Kings
By Shaun Evans
DFS NBA – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any DFS NBA slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary.
We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the Top Value Plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel!
For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.
This is why we’re switching up this fantasy basketball article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates. Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top-tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.
Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 6 game Fantasy Basketball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel!
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Top Tier Plays
Bradley Beal vs. Sacramento Kings
Salary: $9,400 – Needs to score 47 fantasy points or more to exceed value (61.10 for 6.5x)
Bradley Beal actually became human for one game versus the Charlotte Hornets where he only scored 41.50 fantasy points but then bounced back versus Minnesota with 67 fantasy points. Now he gets to face the Sacramento Kings in a fast paced game where he should continue his dominate ways. He’s averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 28%. He has only scored below 50 fantasy points in his past 10 games and I honestly don’t see him slowing down any time soon.
The Sacramento Kings are fighting for a playoff spot for the first time in some time so they will most likely look to try to be a step ahead of the Washington Wizards. They are currently allowing opposing shooting guards to average 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game, plus 42.10 fantasy points. Beal has yet to break the $10k salary mark which is surprising with what he has done recently.
Andre Drummond vs. Brooklyn Nets
Salary: $9,100 – Needs to score 45.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (59.15 for 6.5x)
We have a great match-up for a very inexpensive Andre Drummond tonight as he gets to face the Brooklyn Nets. The big man had back to back 60+ fantasy points games before dropping just 37.75 fantasy points versus the Chicago Bulls. He’s averaging 45.5 fantasy points per game and 1.37 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 23%. Usually Blake Griffin is a great one to target but he also is a foul machine so we’ll stick with Drummond.
The Brooklyn Nets are currently giving up the third most fantasy points to centers, giving up 61.61 fantasy points. They allow opposing centers to average 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Drummond may run on the higher end of ownership with how great this match-up is for him.
Kyrie Irving vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary: $8,900 – Needs to score 44.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (57.85 for 6.5x)
Kyrie Irving has finally woken up from whatever place he was in as he has now scored 46.75 and 56.25 fantasy points versus the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. He has the Los Angeles Clippers tonight and it screams a great match-up but we do need to worry about Patrick Beverly, in case the Clippers throw him on Kyrie. Kyrie is averaging 1.39 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 29% also.
The Los Angeles Clippers are giving up 48.16 fantasy points to the point guard position currently. They are also allowing opposing point guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds per game. Kyrie Irving wasn’t a big factor as he didn’t play big minutes in the last match-up as he only scored 14 points, 2 assist, and 1 rebound in 14 minutes. Playing a full 33 minutes that he usually averages per game, we should see a much better stat-line and outcome.
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Mid Tier Plays
Buddy Hield vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $7,400 – Needs to score 37 fantasy points or more to exceed value (48.1 for 6.5x)
Buddy Hield and the Sacramento Kings are in the “fight now” mode as they are currently looking to get that 8th seed by regular season end. Hield is currently averaging 34 fantasy points per game and 1.06 fantasy points per minute. But he is coming off of a poor performance versus the New York Knicks where he only scored 30 fantasy points. But this is a perfect opportunity to jump back on to the right track of 5-7x value tonight.
The Washington Wizards are currently allowing opposing small forwards to average 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. They are also allowing them to average 39.37 fantasy points per game. We’re in luck though as I don’t see this game being a blow out and with the fast paced styles of the Sacramento Kings, we should see Hield get more opportunities to register a great stat-line.
Clint Capela vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $7,000 – Needs to score 35 fantasy points or more to exceed value (45.5 for 6.5x)
This is a great match-up tonight for Clint Capela versus Cody Zeller and the Charlotte Hornets. Capela has scored 30+ fantasy points in his past three match-ups and should be able to do the same or even more tonight. He’s averaging 39.2 fantasy points per game and 1.15 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 18%. He has a very low ceiling to reach tonight versus a team that struggles to stop big men.
The Charlotte Hornets are currently giving up 57.97 fantasy points to opposing centers. They are allowing them to average 22 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Capela also almost averages a double double versus the Hornets. In 7 games, he’s averaging 10 points and 8 rebounds versus them.
De’Aaron Fox vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $7,300 – Needs to score 36.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (47.45 for 6.5x)
Sticking with the Sacramento Kings two studs, De’Aaron Fox has a very appealing match-up also. He is coming off of a nice game versus the Knicks, putting up 49.75 fantasy points in 37 minutes. He’s also averaging 36.6 fantasy points per game and 1.18 fantasy points per minute. He is a great option to pair with either Kyrie Irving or Bradley Beal if you use the right “value” plays.
The Washington Wizards are giving up the third most fantasy points to the point guard position with 50.52 per game. They are also allowing them to average 25 points, 9 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. Fox almost recorded a double double versus the Wizards in October, recording 18 points and 9 assist. With it being a fight or flight type of match-up, I expect these Sacramento Kings young guns to go all out to close the season out for that 8th seed in the playoffs.
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Low Tier Plays
OG Anunoby vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Salary: $3,300 – Needs to score 16.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (21.45 for 6.5x)
Kawhi Leonard should be back tonight as he took the last one off due to “load management”. OG Anunoby should still see some good amount of burn, especially if they take a demanding lead versus the Cleveland Cavaliers. Anonuby has now reached 6x value in the past two games, scoring 20.75 fantasy points versus the New Orleans Pelicans and Miami Heat. He’s also averaging 20 minutes per game so we know he’ll at least get that if Toronto plans to start someone over him for “match-up” purposes.
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The Cleveland Cavaliers are currently giving up 41.42 fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards. They are also allowing them to average 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. As long as nothing changes, Anunoby is in a great spot plus gives us major salary relief in the long run.
Frank Kaminsky vs. Houston Rockets
Salary: $4,400 – Needs to score 22 fantasy points or more to exceed value (28.6 for 6.5x)
Frank Kaminsky has had a major comeback to kick off the second half of the season, playing 20+ minutes in every game except for one. He has also scored 20+ fantasy points or more in all of them except for the one game he saw 15 minutes in. He does have a slight tougher match-up tonight versus the Houston Rockets but he won’t see the tougher match-ups unless Charlotte rolls with him heavily.
The Houston Rockets are currently giving up just 46.22 fantasy points to opposing power forwards. They are also allowing them to average 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. When we’re looking for value, Kaminsky is one of the guys I’ll be plugging in with OG Anunoby to make room for more top-tier guys.
Joe Harris vs. Detroit Pistons
Salary: $4,500 – Needs to score 22.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.25 for 6.5x)
Now I’m usually not the guy to come to when it comes to Joe Harris as it seems that he just doesn’t like me but he gets to face the Detroit Pistons, a team I think he can succeed easily against. The Brooklyn Nets are a tough team to call now as their entire squad is healthy and it has taken a hit on the usage of all players. Harris is averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game and .78 fantasy points per minute. He also averages 30 minutes per game so the opportunities are there for him.
The Detroit Pistons are currently giving up 40.98 fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. They are also allowing them to average 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. If I had to rank the three low tier guys in order, it would be: Anunoby, Kaminsky, and then Harris just due to the fact that the Nets are healthy with the ball being spread around.
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