NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, March 11 – All Mixed Up!
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Welcome back Picks and Pivots readers – I took the day off from NBA DFS on Sunday to spend some family time on my wife’s birthday but hopefully you all had some strong DFS says. Winning GPP scores once again pushed 350+ on a night where Devin Booker and LaMarcus Aldridge dropped 60+ fantasy points each as they were both under 20% owned in GPP on a slate that ended up being quite chalky thanks to the value that was all over the Pelicans and Hawks high-scoring affair!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Monday Slate Breakdown:
With only 17 more days until MLB DFS Opening Day, we are heading towards the point where even the most dedicated NBA DFS players will start to shift their focus towards baseball as the NBA playoff picture sharpens and the most unpredictable DFS sports becomes even harder to follow. Get ready to see a whole lot of “Load Management” as we head down the stretch.
Tonight we get a good-looking six game slate with 4 of the 5 games sporting 225+ totals and a whole lot of stars to choose from but for all the shiny toys we can click on, frankly there is a whole lot of landmines as well. Of the 12 teams on tonight’s slate, 8 of them see a projected pace decrease so the game environments by and large look to be more floor than ceiling spots for the majority of the plays on this slate.
If there is one star I am paying up for tonight, it is Andre Drummond ($16.7K) who comes at a massive discount versus the Harden’s, Westbrook’s and Paul George‘s of the world and gets a match-up against Brooklyn that becomes a lock and load at this price point.
Drummond has faced the Nets twice this season, both in October, putting up 24/20 and 24/23 while averaging 57 fantasy points in those two games. At this price tonight, he needs “only” 50 fantasy points to hit value with 58 fantasy points, in line with his average versus Brooklyn, being his 3.5x target spot.
Drummond has put up 60+ fantasy points in two of his last three games and this match-up against Brooklyn, should have playoff intensity as the Pistons and Nets sit only a half game apart in the 6th and 7th spots in the Eastern Conference.
I will never tell you not to consider the trio of Harden, Westbrook or PG13 – but I would argue Drummond has every bit the ceiling and the price discount makes him a far more appealing point per dollar value.
NBA DFS – Stack City:
Listen, it is Monday morning – you guys are trying to shake off the weekend and get ready for another work week and you don’t have the time to meander through this article with some “nice plays” that you may or may not play.
Let’s cut to the chase and just go right for the main course on this slate – Kings/Wizards.
- This game has a 241.5 total – 14 points higher than any other game on the slate
- This is the fastest projected pace game on the slate and the only game of the six tonight where both teams see a projected pace boost
- Over the last 10 games, the Kings rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Wizards rank 5th
Said quite simply – stack this game up every which way you can and make your life easy.
Let’s prioritize the plays for you and help you figure out this stack:
First and foremost, it all starts with Bradley Beal ($17.6K) who despite the price hike, has to be considered one of the best plays on this slate. This is a guy who has gone for 50+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games while putting up 21 FGA per game in his last 10 outings. The Wizards have the biggest pace boost on the slate and have the highest total at 121 which gives them a 7 point boost over their season average – again the highest on the slate.
With Beal the clear lead dog in this stack, the Robin to his Batman here for DFS in my opinion is Bobby Portis ($11.4K). Portis in the last 10 games is second on the team in FGA per game at 13.3 and has a 27% usage rate in the last two weeks which is second only again to Mr. Beal. Portis is the volatile upside play, putting up 40+ fantasy points in three of his last four games but the ceiling here just jumps off the page in this kind of game environment.
The rest of the Wizards in my opinion are “fine.” Ringing endorsement right?
Listen – Trevor Ariza and Tomas Satoransky are fine plays if you land on them as last men in as they will play their 30-40 minutes a night and likely give you 30 fantasy points most nights with a ceiling of 40 when they are hitting on all cylinders but at $11.5-$11.6K they feel priced about right so I am not seeking them out here tonight but if they fit into a stack then so be it.
Jabari Parker ($10.2K) actually comes in third over the last two weeks in usage at 23% while putting up just under 1.3 FP/M off the bench, playing 26-28 minutes a night and logging 32-37 fantasy points per game in his most recent outings. Last but not least – Jeff Green ($8.9K) becomes a cheap piece of this stack who is going to log his usual 28+ minutes a game in the starting line-up and his ability to rack up blocks and steals should suit him well in this fast paced game environment.
The last play is a GPP play only but my dude Thunder Dan who writes our awesome FanDuel breakdowns – brought this guy to my attention and at $6K, he is worth the mention. Troy Brown ($6K) has been playing consistent minutes off the bench for Washington and was averaging over 18 fantasy points per game (3x value) before a dud in his last outing. I actually used him on Saturday which allowed me to stack up KAT/Beal and he was less than 1% owned so if you want a minimum price dart in this game stack – the ex Patriots WR could be your man!
NBA DFS – How many Kings is too many?
With the Wizards playing at a top 5 pace while simultaneously playing a bottom 5 defense – all signs point to this being a massive night for the Sacramento Kings who sit 4 games out of the last playoff spot and are in a must-win spot here tonight.
In my opinion – you start you builds tonight with Drummond, then prioritize Beal and Portis on the Washington side and leave the rest of your roster for as many Sacramento players as you can possibly fit.
If you are prioritizing the Kings – it all starts with the backcourt duo of Buddy Hield ($14.4K) and De’Aaron Fox ($13.6K) who have become the 1-2 punch with Marvin Bagley III sidelined in recent games. In the last four games, this duo leads the team in usage and FGA per game and between them have 3 50+ fantasy point outings during that stretch.
Again, I want to build around the upside plays in this stack so where I am building around Beal/Portis on Washington, I think the priority plays on Sacramento become Hield and Fox.
Much like the Wizards – the other players on the Kings all feel “fine” as they have secure minutes floors and no single player sits over $11K on this slate. Willie Cauley-Stein ($10.9K), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($10.8K) and Harrison Barnes ($10K) are going to give you starters minutes each and every night with the same 30-40 point outcomes that the Wizards secondary plays mentioned seemed to have.
Again, these are not the first guys into your build – they become the puzzle pieces you fit around your core.
Nemanja Bjelica ($8.5K) had seemingly fallen out of the rotation but it looks like he is back – playing 23, 28 and 30 minutes in his last three including a 40 point fantasy outing with a 13/10 double-double against the Knicks last time out.
Harry Giles ($8.3K) was the sexy value play when Bagley first went down but with the emergence of Bjelica in these last three games, the buzz has worn off a bit as he has failed to top 20 fantasy points in either of his last two games.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a plud and play build.
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Core:
G: Bradley Beal
G: Buddy Hield
G: De’Aaron Fox
F/C: Andre Drummond
F/C: Bobby Portis
If you lock in this 5 man core here tonight, it will leave you $8.7K remaining for the last three spots on your roster around a core that has massive upside here tonight. Drummond is a do not get cute lock and load and his price and the 2v2 stack of Beal/Portis with Hield/Fox gives you the top 4 ceiling plays in my opinion in the must have exposure spot of the night.
You can round out this stack living in the Jeff Green/Harry Giles/Nemanja Bjelica range or look to punt with someone like Troy Brown and pay up for a Bogdanovic/Barnes type guy.
Also – we have 5 other games – 4 of which I did not even mention here – but remember this is late season NBA so the news and value comes quickly and if we get news of “LOAD MANAGEMENT” – then you have to react. The spot to watch for me is the Raptors, 10 point favorite against the Cavaliers – would it shock you to see Kyle Lowry sit out on the tail end of a B2B as an example after Kawhi got the rest last night?
Just watch this spot and react is all I can say at 6AM EST – build your core, see if “easy value” pops up and then round out the rest of that Wizards/Kings stack and count your money tonight.
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