UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 3/12/19

Two crucial 2nd legs of Round of 16 Champions League matchups will be played on Tuesday.  With several high-profile clubs in action, I expect this to be a popular slate.  Get all the information you need to have success here in my UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown. 

Three weeks again Atletico Madrid took it to Juventus in Spain with a big 2-0 win.  On Tuesday, Juventus will get their home game where they need to win 2-0 to force extra time.  Atletico will be hungry for an away goal to secure the tiebreaker and force Juventus to score four to advance.  Juventus are favored by 0.5 in this game and the goal total over/under is a reasonable 2.5.

Manchester City takes on Schalke 04 at home after squeaking out a 3-2 win in Germany.  City has the advantage in this matchup, and they’re also heavy favorites in this game (-650 on the money line).  Any win in this game sends City through to the quarterfinals, and they can even advance with several draw or even loss scenarios.  Nevertheless, they will be motivated to put it away early and coast.

From an injury perspective, you should know if you follow the Premier League that Kevin de Bruyne is hurt once again.  It was Mahrez who stepped in his starting spot over the weekend, and that is likely what will happen Tuesday.

Diego Costa is suspended because of yellow card accumulation.  Alvaro Morata is the obvious choice to step into a starting role.  Atletico is also going to be without two starting defenders Felipe Luis and Lucas Hernandez.  Juanfran and Santiago Arias should both earn starts and will provide some solid defender value at their respective prices.

Unfortunately for Schalke, their best player Daniel Caligiuri suffered a bad ankle sprain Friday and will be out for an extended period of time.  This is a huge hit to Schalke’s attack in a matchup that was already difficult, and whoever steps into his place likely won’t be worth rostering.

That’s about it for relevant player news on this slate, so let’s jump to some specific advice.

UEFA Champions League DFS – Target Forwards

Cristiano Ronaldo (Atletico Madrid @ Juventus, $13,000) – If you’ve played UCL DFS in the past, you know that Ronaldo goes into another gear during the knockout stage.  On Tuesday, he’s facing elimination and earliest exit from the tournament since his first season with Real Madrid in 2009-10.  Atletico is one of the best, if not the best, defensive team left in the tournament, so this is a difficult matchup.  Regardless, Ronaldo is clearly matchup-proof.  He spoke very confidently of a Juventus comeback in an interview recently, so expect him to be firing on all cylinders.  The last time a Cristiano Ronaldo team lost the first leg 2-0, he came through and helped his team advance with a hat trick.  He’s the kind of player to lock in on this slate.

Sergio Aguero (Schalke 04 @ Manchester City, $12,500) – Aguero has one of the best matchups on this slate.  Schalke 04 are barely free of relegation in the Bundesliga, and they’ve given up an average of 1.72 goals per game.  At home on Tuesday, I expect City to roll through them early and put this fixture away.  Aguero scored in the first leg in Germany, and he looks ripe to do so again this week.  My only concern here is that he is a sub risk.  With Gabriel Jesus hurt, Aguero has racked up a ton of minutes over the last few months.  If City build an early lead, I would not be surprised if he came off.  However, if they do build an early lead, he was likely involved.

Value Forwards

Mario Mandzukic (Atletico Madrid @ Juventus, $9,000) – Finding value forwards in the Champions League is always difficult.  Mandzukic only has one goal in the UCL this year, but he does have eight goals and five assists in Serie A.  He’s also no stranger to this competition having been there year after year with Juventus, Atletico Madrid, and Bayern Munich.  Atletico Madrid have not conceded in five straight games, but Juventus know they need to score at least two goals to give themselves a chance.  Mandzukic will likely be low-owned on Tuesday and with his ability to score plus the fact that Juventus will be pressing, he’s a solid value play.

Breel Embolo (Schalke 04 @ Manchester City, $7,500) – Writing up a Schalke attacker in this game is tough, but so making the rest of your lineup while paying for two studs forwards.  Embolo hasn’t had a ton of playing time this season, but the young Swiss forward does have four goals in four Bundesliga starts (including two on Friday).  Embolo has also done a decent job at getting peripherals in the Champions League this year.  If you want the money to pay up for a midfielder, Embolo is essentially a must-play.

UEFA Champions League DFS – Target Midfielders

Raheem Sterling (Schalke 04 @ Manchester City, $11,500) – Sterling came to the rescue in Germany with a stoppage time goal to salvage a 3-2 away win for City.  He’ll look to hit the back of the net sooner on Tuesday I’m assuming to put Schalke away.  Sterling had been in a little goal-scoring slump until Saturday when he exploded for a hat trick (in 13 minutes) against Watford.  Like I said for Aguero, City attackers have the best matchup on paper against a weak Schalke defense.  Sterling is less of a sub risk in my mind.  If you want to pay up for a midfielder on Tuesday, Sterling should be your top choice.  David Silva ($9,000), Mahrez ($8,000), and Bernardo Silva ($7,000) are all good exposure to City in this matchup.

Paulo Dybala (Atletico Madrid @ Juventus, $9,500) – If you don’t want to stack City, Dybala is a good GPP option on this slate.  For the good defensive team I keep saying Atletico is, I somehow keep coming back to Juventus attackers.  I think this is because of the fact that they’re at home and that Juventus need to score multiple goals to advance.  Dybala hasn’t been the same kind of player he was before Ronaldo joined the team, but he’s still really good.  He has five goals in the UCL this season and four goals and four assists in Serie A (including two in his last five appearances).  Finding exposure to Juve’s midfield is never easy, and with Miralem Pjanic unimpressive from a fantasy standpoint this season, Dybala becomes their top midfield option.

Value Midfielders

Oleksandr Zinchenko (Schalke 04 @ Manchester City, $6,000) – The value at the midfield position is officially the worst I’ve ever seen.  Maybe one of the teams can bless us with an unexpected starter who can provide some salary relief.  If not, Manchester City will be the place to look.  I already mentioned Bernardo Silva ($7,000) and now I’ll touch on Zinchenko.  Zinchenko has been playing regularly for City lately (he’s been classified as a defender for EPL, but is somehow a midfielder for UCL).  Zinchenko has been playing well from a fantasy perspective lately with his peripherals, and that’s exactly what I’ll be looking for on Tuesday.  He has the safest floor out of any defender under $7k.  Especially in a good matchup, Zinchenko could find himself doing more attacking than normal which only raises his ceiling.  Zinchenko will be a popular midfield value play.

UEFA Champions League DFS – Target Defenders

Giorgio Chiellini (Atletico Madrid @ Juventus, $6,500) – With the lack of value on this slate so far, paying for a top defender is going to be nearly impossible.  However, if you have the money, consider Chiellini.  No defender on this slate racks up fantasy points like he does without relying on attacking points.  Chiellini is a world-class defender who will have to be on his A game if Juventus hope to advance.  His fantasy floor is very safe, and he has big game upside especially on Tuesday.

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Diego Godin (Atletico Madrid @ Juventus, $6,500) – Diego Godin is my second favorite defender on this slate.  He can get defensive peripheral stats almost as well as Chiellini, and he has more goal upside than Chiellini does.  Godin should also be busy in this game as Juventus look to press.  I’m expecting this game to open up early, which bodes well for Godin’s peripheral rate.

Value Defenders

Juanfran (Atletico Madrid @ Juventus, $5,000) – I’m largely ignoring the mid-priced defenders on this slate due to lack of intriguing options and I’m expecting a lot of people to be looking for cheap defenders.  I really like Juanfran’s chances at going for 3x value on Tuesday.  Like I just mentioned for Godin, I expect this game to be open and full of action.  Juanfran will have plenty of opportunities to get defensive peripherals and he also adds some attacking upside as an outside defender.  If you can afford someone higher $4,500, take a look at Juanfran.  If you need that $500 elsewhere, Santiago Arias ($4,500) is a good option.

There are four minimum-priced defenders on FanDuel that could start.  As you know, I consider most $4,000 defenders viable on any given slate.  Instead of writing them all up, I’m just going to rank them.

1.      Aymeric Laporte

2.      Benjamin Stambouli

3.      Martin Caceres

4.      Bastian Oczpika

UEFA Champions League DFS – Goalkeepers

Ederson (Schalke 04 @ Manchester City, $6,500) – Ederson will undoubtedly be the popular GK option on Tuesday.  City is the largest favorites and they’re playing at home against a team that just lost their best player.  Ederson’s upside is limited due to a lack of save points, but a win and a clean sheet are good bets giving him a nice floor.

Wojciech Szczesny (Atletico Madrid @ Juventus, $5,000) – If you can’t afford Ederson or want to save money, Szczesny is my second favorite GK option on Tuesday.  Juventus have only conceded nine goals in 14 home Serie A games this year.  While I understand this is the Champions League and Atletico is better than most Serie A teams, that has to count for something.  Additionally, Juventus know that if they give up a goal, they’ll have to score four in order to advance.  Juventus will be tight at the back on Tuesday, but Atletico will get their shots.  This is a boom or bust spot for Szczesny.

Thanks for reading my UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown.  Hopefully you have all advice you need to make a lineup, and if not, check out my Twitter (@vdray5) leading up to lock where I’ll be posting last-minute updates and advice.