DraftKings NBA Picks March 12: Trust the Process against Cleveland.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – MARCH 03: Kemba Walker #15 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts after a play against the Portland Trail Blazers during their game at Spectrum Center on March 03, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 12: Trust the Process against Cleveland.

We have a solid six game slate for our DraftKings NBA tournaments tonight. There are two stars on the slate, and several more that could perform like stars. Who do we want to build our lineups with? Let’s take a look!

My core plays were Drummond and Paul George, so I didn’t sniff the cash line. Both of them barely broke 40 and Frank the Tank was a waste. The money line was a modest 275.75, but when 45 is your high score, you have no chance.

suprme took it down with 350.5 DraftKings points. He built around Kemba Walker, Mitchell, and Lou Williams. Cedi Osman, Bobby Portis, Collin Sexton, and Gobert all broke 40 as well.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – MARCH 03: Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on March 03, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard is the sole $9,000 player tonight, but it’s hard to say that he’s not worth it. In three games against the Clippers this year, Lillard has averaged 47.3 DraftKings points per game. However, it is worth noting that Lillard has only topped that mark once in March, and that was the overtime marathon with the Thunder last week.

I would be more than a little surprised if Dallas pushed Luka Doncic on his sore knee, so I’m going to approach this as if Doncic is out. There is no official word yet, it just feels like this is a spot where the Mavs should rest him. Don’t worry, we still have Ben Simmons available in this tier. Simmons has 110.25 DraftKings points in two games against Cleveland this year. I trust Simmons more than Lillard right now.

Honorable Mention:

Rajon Rondo was a bust in a good spot against Boston, but the fact remains that he is going to be one of the few Lakers left standing. Rondo probably doesn’t have a future with the team, and the guy they want to give the minutes to has been shut down. Now what? Run the guy who’s not going to be there next year. Rondo should see really good minutes down the stretch, but we have all been around long enough to know that doesn’t mean he will do anything with them. There is good potential here though.

As predicted, Derrick White struggled against Milwaukee over the weekend. A matchup with Dallas should get him back on track, but on a site like DraftKings where prices have seemed out of whack on some players, it appears as though it is here as well. White needs 39 DraftKIngs points for 6x value. Even though his play has been really strong lately, White has only topped that mark twice in the last ten games.

Eric Bledsoe, Teague, and Elfrid Payton, fresh off a triple double look hard to roster here as well. I give Teague a bit of an advantage against Denver, especially if Towns is out. I still think we can do better in the lower tier though. We are banking on a ceiling game from these guys. Payton has practically no chance against the Bucks, and Bledsoe is an afterthought on offense. I would probably play Jamal Murray over all of them despite the lack of upside. He has the best floor and the best matchup.

Dark Horses:

I don’t trust any Knicks, and I don’t know that we can rely on Darren Collison for big numbers against the Knicks since he hasn’t done that to them in any of the prior three meetings. I don’t trust Kris Dunn against Rondo, so that brings back Frank Jackson. I hate the matchup against Milwaukee and I hate the fact that he needs 30 DraftKings points for 6x value.

I’ve spent most of this page talking about reasons not to play most of the point guards tonight, but there are still a couple of value picks I would consider. Jalen Brunson is a must if Luka Doncic is out, and he has topped 30 DraftKIngs points twice in a row with Doncic on the court. Brunson is a good pick regardless.

If you need to go cheaper, this is a solid matchup for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but he is always a risk. We can say the same thing about Cory Joseph. He’s still seeing 22-24 minutes, but the production is way down. Bryn Forbes is cheaper and safer right now and has a better matchup against Dallas tonight.

My pick: Lillard(PG), Brunson(G); Rondo(PG), Brunson(G)

ORLANDO, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 19: DeMar DeRozan #10 of the San Antonio Spurs attempts a shot during the game against the Orlando Magic at Amway Center on December 19, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan has 93.5 DraftKings points in two games against Dallas so far this year, but he has only topped 40 DraftKIngs points in five of the last ten games. That’s a lot of inconsistency, but I will still consider running DeRozan at Dallas. Especially if Luka Doncic remains out.

Zach LaVine wasn’t that good against the Lakers the first time around, but they have had issues defending guards, especially off guards, this year. I can see taking a run with LaVine, but his price is a bit of a turn off. LaVine’s floor is really low. I hate that quality in a player that costs almost $8,000.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams showed why he is always in play on Friday, going to 65.25 DraftKings points. That’s not the first time LouWill has done that this year. He capped it off last night by becoming the highest scoring bench player in NBA history. This is a solid matchup against Portland, even though Williams has struggled against the Blazers this year. You can justify playing LouWill in a GPP on every slate because of the upside, but I can’t get behind ever using him in cash games.

The middle tier of SG is also pretty thin. C.J. McCollum and Khris Middleton are going to give you about what you want, but there is almost no upside there. Will Barton has the upside, but the Denver backcourt is crowded, so the floor is Hell. I would consider using Andrew Wiggins here if healthy, but with as well as KBD is playing, Minnesota isn’t going to rush Wiggy back.

Patrick Beverley isn’t going over 5x value with regularity, but when he does, he’s way over. He is a poor man’s Lou Williams with a lower floor and moderately less upside. If that sounds unappealing, then you have Mr. Consistency, Malcolm Brogdon, at the same price. I can see using Beverley in GPP’s, but Brogdon is the guy you want in cash.

Dark Horses:

I don’t like any Knicks guards, but Damyean Dotson is the only one I would even consider due to price and output. He doesn’t have the upside of Dennis Smith, but Dotson is playing by far the most minutes in the Knicks backcourt right now. He’s an acceptable risk.

Don’t play a guy just because you want them to do well. Tim Hardaway Jr., Wesley Matthews, Reggie Bullock, and Gary Harris fit that bill. Matthews is pretty consistent, but the rest are very volatie. Harris has the most upside, but he has 9 DraftKings points and 35 DraftKings points in the last two games. If you average that out, he looks pretty good. Take out the averages, and you have massive risk.

If Cleveland is going to keep starting Brandon Knight, we have to take notice. Knight is proving that he still has something left. He has 56.25 DraftKings points in his two starts. One was alongside a monster triple double from Sexton last night. I wouldn’t try for lightning in a bottle with Sexton again, but I love Knight for $3,500. Marco Belinelli is worth a look too, but I prefer Knight right now.

My pick: Kinght(SG); Williams(SG), Dotson(UTIL)

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 06: A detail of the jersey of LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers during the first quarter against the Denver Nuggets at Staples Center on March 06, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Robert Laberge/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

As promised, the Lakers limited LeBron James to 28 minutes. That’s going to be the norm. He still stacked up 64 DraftKings points on the Celtics though. Yes, I suppose that LeBron is still worth a look at this price since he could do a lot of damage to the Bulls even in 28 minutes, but the upside is gone. There is almost no way LeBron can hit 6x value now while his price is still this high.

Honorable Mention:

Danilo Gallinari hasn’t gutted Portland the way that other small forwards have. It seems as though Gallo has a ceiling regardless of who the Clippers are playing or who is on the floor with him. I guess this makes him more of a cash play. In theory, Gallinari has upside here. We have just yet to see it against Portland.

I really like the idea of running Otto Porter at a beat up, and tanking, Lakers squad. I wouldn’t do it at the expense of Bojan Bogdanovic though. Bojan has been the most consistent scorer for the Pacers, and is a big reason why they are still in the thick of things in the East. I like both of them as middle tier plays tonight.

Dark Horses:

Mo Harkless turned in another strong game, but his price is to the point where it’s hard for him to get 6x value. Harkless only has 5x value at this price twice in the last five games. We need to find a new value play, and it could be James Ennis. Ennis will be starting in place of Jimmy Butler here. I don’t love the price, but the minutes are enticing. I just wonder how he’ll fit in with the Philly first team since Ennis has done well with the second team.

If Andrew Wiggins is out again, Keita Bates-Diop is the lock of the slate at $3,400. KBD has 58.75 DraftKings points in his two starts for Wiggins. If Wiggins returns, the safest of the value plays is probably Landry Shamet. Darius Miller and Wayne Selden are there for those of you that don’t mind a healthy amount of risk.

My pick: Bogdanovic(SF); Gallinari(SF)

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – MARCH 04: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts after a slam dunk against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of the NBA game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on March 04, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Bucks 114-105. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis put up a modest 50 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pelicans in 33 minutes. The Bucks are probably going to try to limit the workload on Giannis if they can since this team would be sunk without him. If this game gets out of hand, Giannis will be lucky to see 30 minutes. I’m inclined to fade him here tonight, but I may get some exposure just in case. He could also go off.

If Randle ends up playing more power forward than center, I love this matchup. If he ends up with BroLo on him, I like this less. Randle is capable of putting up 50’s with little or no effort, but most of his games are in the mid 30’s. That’s a disappointing return if we pay $8,700 for him. Randle’s price is a little high for me here. I think there are better options for this kind of money. Unless he doesn’t draw Lopez, of course.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris doesn’t have to grapple with Kevin Love here, so this matchup looks better. With Butler out, I could see Harris being a bigger part of the offense, but with Embiid back out there, I wouldn’t expect a huge game either. I still see a solid line for Harris for the price, but 6x value could be pretty hard to come by.

Montrezl Harrell is a poor man’s Randle. Or is he? The averages aren’t a lot different. Randle has more upside, but I’m perfectly content to snag Harrell for $2,500 less since he still clears 30 DraftKIngs points with ease.

Thad Young’s numbers were down with Sabonis back, which isn’t surprising. I like both him and Sabonis here, but there’s no reason to pay for Thad here. Sabonis is cheaper and has far more upside. He has demolished the Knicks for a 43.3 DraftKings point per game average this year. Sabonis is way too cheap here.

Dark Horses:

I do like Cedi Osman quite a bit here with Love out. Love has been great for the Cavs since returning, but the blowout potential is keeping me from riding Osman really hard. I have a general feeling that Cleveland isn’t going to get blown out though. They’re playing pretty well right now.

It seems to me like there are a lot of risky plays at power forward tonight. We have the revenge narrative of Nikola Mirotic against New Orleans, but I don’t know if he’ll play enough minutes. Noah Vonleh looks good against the Pacers, but the Knicks rotations are better left alone. i kind of want to avoid the whole Minnesota situation against Denver even if Towns is out again.

I don’t know how Moritz Wagner is still this cheap, but he shouldn’t be. The Lakers are running him big minutes lately. I see Wagner starting even if Kuzma is back. He is my favorite value play of the night.

My pick: Harrell(PF), Sabonis(F); Sabonis(PF), Wagner(F)

NEW ORLEANS, LA – FEBRUARY 17: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves shoots the ball against Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets in the second half of the 2017 BBVA Compass Rising Stars Challenge at Smoothie King Center on February 17, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

The numbers for Towns have been insane lately, but I’m in no hurry to run him out there against Denver even if he’s healthy. I would rather play Nikola Jokic, but the two of them have been a ways under value against each other this year. I’ll play Jokic if Towns is out. Otherwise, I’m avoiding both fronts in this game.

On paper, this is a bad matchup for Joel Embiid. After all, he has only averaged 41.9 DraftKings points in the two games against Cleveland this year. Now the good news. Cleveland is without Love, Nance, and Thompson tonight. Embiid is going to chew up Zizic and spit him out.