FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Tuesday, 3/12 – It’s as easy as A.B.C..

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Tuesday, 3/12

Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

My goal when I created the Breakdown was to make this an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

I hope you all had some success last night with your cash games and tournaments. I was heavy on the Kings-Wizards game and it really paid off for me. I plan on attacking this Washington rotation for as long as I can as just about every game they’ve been in over the last few weeks has been fantasy gold.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

Let’s try to make it two nights in a row and nail this 7-game slate tonight! I’ve probably mentioned it before, but I really enjoy 5-7 game slates and I’ve had some of my best nights on these “medium-sized” slates.

Let’s start our analysis by looking at Vegas totals and relevant injury news as a way to begin the process of narrowing our player pools.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

Injury Report

OUT: Lonzo Ball, Tristan Thompson, Frank Ntilikina, Matthew Dellavedova, George Hill, Furkan Korkmaz, Jimmy Butler, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Love, Robert Covington, Luol Deng, Etwaun Moore, Brandon Ingram, Trey Lyles

DOUBTFUL: Zach LaVine

QUESTIONABLE: Larry Nance Jr., Luka Doncic, Andrew Wiggins, Rudy Gay, Lance Stephenson, Evan Turner, Kyle Kuzma

PROBABLE: NONE

We have a ton (I realize that is a measurement of weight and not volume) of injuries today to deal with and some of them are guys that can really affect the slate if they end up missing. Shooting guard is a disaster right now with most of the top options being out or in question (Luka, LaVine, Wiggins, and Butler)

The Cavs have only a handful of big men left and the Lakers are rolling out a bunch of guys who haven’t played all season. Oh, what fun the last month of the NBA regular season can be!

Vegas Info

***The Clippers and Cavaliers are the only two teams that were in action last night.

***Only five of the seven games on the slate have total ls at this point. The highest total is 237 (Bucks-Pelicans) and the lowest total is 212 (Knicks-Pacers).

***There are two potential blowout concerns tonight with both the Knicks-Pacers and Cavs-Sixers being double-digit spreads.

***The closest spread comes from the Lakers-Bulls game with the Lakers being only one-point road favorites in that one.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (12000)

The Bucks has the highest implied total on the slate and by far the biggest pace bump of any team tonight. I’m paying up for Giannis as the anchor for my teams in cash games. He offers such an amazing floor with 1.68 FPPM that I’m not too concerned of a blowout. Over his last 6 games, his floor has been 48 FD points while his ceiling was 76. He should be able to gobble up boards all night long and the speed at which this game is played should mean he will rack up plenty of assists, steals, and blocks, too.

C.J. McCollum (7600)

McCollum is the safest option at the shooting guard position at this time, considering most of the other expensive plays are either out or questionable. He’s averaged around 37 FD points per game over his last three and has scored 26 actual points per game in that stretch.  C.J. has an excellent matchup against a Clippers team that doesn’t play much defense and is playing the second half of a back-to-back.

Frank Jackson (5000)

Jackson has emerged as a very reliable option for the Pelicans since Jrue Holiday went down. He’s played 36 and 32 minutes in their last two games and scored over 20 actual points in both. His minutes are locked in and his price has yet to catch up to his production. I’m also interested in his fellow backcourt mate Elfrid Payton but I think you take the 2000 dollar savings here in cash games and use Jackson.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Joel Embiid (10300)

I love “The Process” again tonight. He is still underpriced compared to where he was priced before he got hurt and missed a bunch of games. I don’t know the situation with his minutes being restricted or not tonight, but he has enormous upside even if he plays 4-5 minute stretches during the game. He racked up 51 FD points in only 27 minutes against Indiana and the matchup is even better tonight against Cleveland.

Cedi Osman (5800)

Speaking of the Cavs, Cedi Osman is my favorite Cleveland player to use tonight. He had a great game last night against Toronto with 19 points, 7 assists, and 7 rebounds and he’s going to be asked to do a lot of scoring, rebounding, and distributing again tonight with Kevin Love out and possibly Larry Nance Jr., too. He’s cheap enough that he should still exceed value even if the Cavs do get beat up pretty badly tonight.

Elfrid Payton (7000)

I am reserving Elf for GPPs tonight mainly because he got a pretty hefty price hike and he’s not playing as many minutes as you might think since Jrue Holiday went down. He had a nice triple-double against Atlanta in his last game and he’s a solid stat stuffer across the board. He just struggles to score the basketball and he’s going to need to pile up some defensive stats to hit tournament value (which would be 42 FD points to get to 6x).

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Ante Zizic (4400)

With the Cavs almost entirely out of other big men, Zizic should play a ton of minutes tonight. When he’s got the minutes, he has produced and just had 17-7 last night against the Raptors. He will have his hands full with Embiid, but he should be able to make value at this price, even if he has to do it in mop-up minutes.

Mo Wagner (5000)

Wagner has come out of nowhere and emerged as a starter for the Lakers. He had one heck of a first NBA start against the Celtics this weekend as he posted 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists in 34 minutes. He may not play that many minutes again, but he has shown he’s a productive fantasy player and he’s still cheap enough that he could exceed value tonight in a plus matchup against the Bulls.

Jonathan Williams (4400)

Another guy who is getting minutes for the banged-up Lakers is Williams. He had 18-10 against Boston in only 28 minutes so you know he’s got some fantasy potential if he gets the minutes again. Watch Kyle Kuzma‘s status tonight and if he’s out again then fire up Williams for value.

Keita Bates-Diop (4100)

Bates-Diop is an exciting, athletic young wing player for the Wolves who has emerged with some fantasy value lately with the injuries to Andrew Wiggins and Luol Deng forcing him into the starting lineup and to play heavy minutes. He’s 6’9″ and that his length at the position allowed him to rack up 4 blocks/steals against the Knicks on Sunday.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings

What some players find really helpful are position rankings. I will rank my favorite players at each position based on their upside and point-per-dollar viability for cash and GPP.  Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” but it’s not an exhaustive list of my player pool by any means.

Point Guard

1. Damian Lillard
2. Elfrid Payton
3. Colin Sexton/Jalen Brunson/Frank Jackson

Shooting Guard

1. C.J. McCollum
2. Lou Williams
3. Damyean Dotson

Small Forward

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Cedi Osman
3. Danilo Gallinari

Power Forward

1. Tobias Harris
2. Anthony Davis
3. Jonathan Williams

Center

1. Joel Embiid
2. Ante Zizic
3. Mo Wagner

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Milwaukee (-9) @ New Orleans (237 total)

I really like this game tonight. The question is just whether or not the Pelicans can keep it close. The pace of this game far exceeds the other games on the slate and it has the highest total on the board. It’s also relatively easy to stack up with some of the value that we have on the New Orleans side.

I’m starting my build with Giannis, obviously, and then likely going with my man Brook Lopez (6100). Lopez has seen his role grow on this Bucks team and his minutes are up. I prefer to use Giannis-Lopez in my Bucks stacks these days as the other three guards (Bledsoe, Middleton, Brogdon) all tend to eat into each other’s production and they are all priced where it’s hard for them to make tournament value.

The Pelicans guys are all pretty much in play here for tournaments. I will even consider Anthony Davis (7600) based on how productive he’s been even in limited minutes. He’s hit 6x value four out of his last 6 games at this price despite only playing 20-22 minutes. Julius Randle (9000) is getting a little expensive for my taste, but I have a ton of interest in Frank Jackson, Elfrid Payton and even Ian Clark (3500). 

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a cash lineup. I’m doing my best to give you an idea of which direction to go today but so much still depends on who ends up playing tonight. It does feel like there should be plenty of value on this slate so I am anchoring this lineup with Embiid and Giannis. But I very well might end up going more balanced depending on how this slate unfolds.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are always pivots that need to be made as the slate unfolds during the day!

PG: Colin Sexton (5400)
PG: Frank Jackson (5000)
SG: Ian Clark (3500)
SG: C.J. McCollum (7600)
SF: Keita Bates-Diop (4100)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (12000)
PF: Anthony Davis (7600)
PF: Jonathan Williams (4400)
C: Joel Embiid (10300)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!