PGA DraftKings Value Picks: 2019 The PLAYERS Championship
PGA DraftKings Value Picks: 2019 The PLAYERS Championship
As part of the new schedule on the PGA Tour, The Players Championship now comes two months earlier. Previously being played in early-mid May,we now get the “fifth major” in March. It does make more sense this way since we are in the midst of the Florida swing which will round out next week at the Valspar Championship as we march on in our PGA DraftKings contests!
The Players Championship is one of the more difficult fields to analyze. The player pool is made up of 144 of the world’s best golfers. This usually leads to soft PGA DraftKings pricing as there are so many options. Finding value in the right spots is crucial this week.
Top-70 and ties will make it to the weekend which is about 10% fewer players than what we experienced this past week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. For cash game purposes, you should strive for about four made cuts of your six golfers. Obviously 6/6 is ideal but it’s not too easy to do. We have watched some of the world’s best golfers miss the cut at The Players Championship, so nothing is a guarantee.
Course history is of high importance again this week as most of our previous winners have had success here in the past. It is rare that we see someone win in their first go at The Players. This does not mean that we should avoid all newcomers, but proceed with caution.
Some key stats to consider should include Par 4 Birdie or Better, Scrambling, and Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. There are many places to make mistakes here, especially on the island green – 17th. Pair that with smaller greens and lots of water, it takes four solid days to come away as The Players Champion.
PGA DraftKings Value Picks: 2019 The PLAYERS Championship
If there is ever a time to completely fade the top of the board, it’s at The PLAYERS Championship. This week, there are six golfers listed above $10k: Dustin Johnson ($11,400), Justin Thomas ($11,100), Rory McIlroy ($10,800), Tiger Woods ($10,500), Justin Rose ($10,200), and Brooks Koepka at an even $10,000.
In the past two years at The PLAYERS, there has only been one golfer (Jason Day, 2018) priced above $10,000 to finish inside of the top-10. That alone goes to show that this tournament is as unpredictable as it gets. When constructing your roster, consider limiting your exposure to this tier of players. With so much value and talent down the board, a balanced approach is your best bet. There is, however, one player on my radar from this range:
In terms of what it takes to succeed at TPC Sawgrass, Justin Thomas fits the mold the best in this range. In three starts at The PLAYERS, JT is 3/3 with two of them resulting T11 or better. He is currently ranked sixth in Par 4 Birdie or Better, 16th in SG: Around the Green, and first in SG: Approach the Green.
Rostering Thomas at $11,100 leaves you with just under $7,800 for your remaining 5 spots. This is a range that is absolutely loaded so paying up here does make sense. Thomas is 6/6 this calendar year with four top-10’s, and no finishes outside of the top-30. His last victory came last year in August at the WGC Bridgestone. Thomas has the third best odds, behind just Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy on Bovada. Limit your exposure in this upper tier but play Thomas with confidence.
PGA DraftKings Value Picks: 2019 The PLAYERS Championship
In your typical field, this range would usually drop off a bit. That’s not the case here at The PLAYERS. This range features 16 golfers, 15 of which find themselves inside the top-26 in the world (Adam Scott, 32). I truly believe that the winner is going to come from this range, and it is a great spot to start building your DraftKings roster.
Tommy Fleetwood $8,800
The 13th ranked player in the world comes in at just under $9,000. He is just about an automatic made cut as he has made his last 20 worldwide. Fleetwood also has made the cut at The PLAYERS in both of his attempts, with one of them being a top-10 last year. He is coming into this week in good form off of a T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Fleetwood also rates out fairly well here. He ranks inside the top-35 on the PGA Tour in both Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. If you decide to start your build with Fleetwood, it gives you the ability to roster six golfers priced above $8,000.
Patrick Cantlay $8,700
Of any player in this range, Cantlay rates out the best when you look at the key stats. This season, he is 10th in Par 4 Birdie or Better, 29th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and 24th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. He should continue to find success here at The PLAYERS with his strong short game.
Cantlay is a golfer who is able to produce high finishes. He has made seven of his last eight cuts worldwide with all seven resulting in a finish of T17 or better. Cantlay is no stranger to TPC Sawgrass as he has finished inside the top-25 two years in a row.
Alternate Option: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,300): 4/5 here with all four inside of the top-25.
PGA DraftKings Value Picks: 2019 The PLAYERS Championship
Again…this is unreal. The amount of options in this range is almost overwhelming. When analyzing golfers in this mid-tier, we have to target player we feel comfortable making the cut. If you start your team with Thomas, Fleetwood, and Cantlay, it leaves you with an average salary remaining of just over $7,100. Substituting Matsuyama for Thomas leaves you with about $8,000.
Cameron Smith $7,600
My first time scrolling through the pricing, this was one spot that caught my attention. Though the course history is not there as Smith has missed the cut here in each of the last two years, he has the game to contend at The PLAYERS.
Smith finds himself inside the top-30 in all three of the key statistics. He is currently ninth in Par 4 Birdie or Better, 13th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and 30th Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. Smith started the year making five straight cuts which included three top-15’s. This is a great value for the 24th ranked player in the world. Maybe we’ll get to see him poppin’ bottles after his round on Sunday.
Zach Johnson $7,000
This pick is strictly based off of course history, but it has rarely let us down. Outside of Adam Scott ($8,200), it is hard to find someone with a better track record at The PLAYERS Championship. Zach Johnson has made 13/14 cuts here. He has 10 straight with his only miss being back in 2008. Though only seven of the 13 made cuts are top-25’s, you can’t ask for much more priced at just $7,000.
Following his missed cut at the Sony Open, Johnson has rattles off four straight made cuts, with none of them being inside of the top-25. Even at that, he is still playing solid golf, currently ranked inside the top-45 in both Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. Roster Zach at $7,000 with the assumption that you are going to, at the very least, get a made cut out of it.
Alternate Option: Gary Woodland ($7,600): 11th in Par 4 Birdie or Better, and ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. Two top-10’s in last four events.
PGA DraftKings Value Picks: 2019 The PLAYERS Championship
If you plan on fading the top-tier this week, this may not even be a range we need to dip into. There are plenty of viable options, but if you don’t feel strongly about anyone in this range, don’t put yourself in that situation. However, there are a few players that do stand out down here.
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Chez Reavie $6,700
After a slow start missing his first two cuts at The PLAYERS, Chez Reavie has made the cut here in each of the past two years. Reavie has quietly had a very good start to the year with a pair of top-5 finishes missing just one cut.
This play makes a lot of sense in terms of finding players with short game as well. On the season, Reavie is 29th in Par 4 Birdie or Better, and 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green.
Trey Mullinax $6,000
This price just does not seem right. Trey Mullinax is more profiled as a “bomber”, which does not exactly suit this course, but it definitely won’t hurt him. Mullinax really just seems out-of-place costing you a bare-minimum $6,000 on DraftKings.
Mullinax got his card last season on conditional status, finishing inside of the top-125 in the 2018 FedEx Cup Standings. He is taking full advantage of his membership making 6/6 cuts since the start of the year with three of his past four starts being top-25’s. Look at Mullinax as a risk/reward type player at just $6,000.
Alternate Option: Matt Wallace ($6,700): hard to ignore his T6 performance last week. 35th in the OWGR, Wallace is a nice value under $7,000 on DraftKings
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