UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown – Wednesday 3/13/19

The UEFA Champions League continues Wednesday when the last two Round of 16 fixtures will be decided and the field will be narrowed to just eight clubs.  This UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown will provide top plays and value plays at each position, to allow even the casual DFS player to build a winning lineup!

Yesterday my article was full of successful plays including Cristiano Ronaldo and his hat-trick (60 FDP), Sergio Aguero (40 FDP), Raheem Sterling (48.3 FDP), Bernardo Silva (36.5 FDP), Joao Cancelo (25.5 FDP), and even Oleksandr Zinchenko who went for nearly 4x value.

The last time these matchups were played on February 19th, all four teams failed to score and both games ended 0-0.  It was quite an odd day from a fantasy perspective with 0 goals (and 0 assists of course), not to mention that all four GKs on the slate got clean sheet bonuses.  Anthony Lopes, Lyon’s keeper, led the slate in scoring at 25 FDP with Trent Alexander-Arnold right behind him at 24.8.  The winner of the $1 single entry on FanDuel took it down with a mere 152.6, but I’m sure even he’s hoping for more action on Wednesday.

Like I mentioned, Barcelona and Lyon played to a 0-0 draw in the first leg which means that whoever wins this game will advance.  If it ends as a non-scoreless draw, Lyon will advance on the away goal tiebreaker.  However, Barcelona are favored by 2.0 goals and they should take care of business at home.  The goal total for this game is currently 3.5.

Three weeks ago, Liverpool and Bayern Munich also ended in a 0-0 draw in England.  Bayern will get their second crack at Liverpool, this time at home where they are small favorites.  The same scenarios apply in this game.  The winner advances, the away team advances in a non-scoreless draw, and a scoreless draw will result in an extra 30 minutes of play.  FanDuel and DraftKings both award points for extra time, and with this game more likely to need that extra time, an interesting GPP strategy could be to stack this game if you believe a tie is coming.

Bayern have the most injury news on this slate.  Arjen Robben remains sidelined, however, both David Alaba and Kingsley Coman are now fit for Wednesday’s matchup.  Joshua Kimmich is unfortunately suspended for this game, which will hurt Bayern’s outside attacking presence.

For Barcelona, Ousmane Dembele is doubtful for the game, meaning Coutinho will likely slide into that spot.

Liverpool ruled Naby Keita out of this game, but luckily James Milner made the trip.  If he’s healthy, he would be the most likely to take that midfield spot against Bayern, but if he’s not, look for Xherdan Shaqiri to start.

Lyon is healthy right now with Marcelo as their biggest doubt, but even he could play on Wednesday.

UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown – Target Forwards

Lionel Messi (Lyon @ Barcelona, $14,000) – Paying $14k for one guy is a huge hit to the rest of your lineup.  However, if you’re playing in cash games, Messi is a near must.  Messi has the highest odds to score on the whole slate, and the odds are even fair that he scores more than once.  Taking the best player and goal scorer on the team that’s the biggest favorite is often a winning strategy.  If you need more reason to play him, he had six goals in four UCL group stage appearances.  He also has four goals and two assists in his last three La Liga games.  I’d highly recommend starting your lineup with him in cash, fading him is only a risk deep GPP strategy.  Luis Suarez ($10,500) hasn’t been great in the UCL this year, but he’s coming into this game with four goals in four games and will be a viable play on Wednesday.

Value Forwards

Memphis Depay (Lyon @ Barcelona, $9,000) – This is really just a default pick as Depay is one of two forwards $9k or less who will start on Wednesday.  The other is either going to be Moussa Dembele ($8,000) or Bertrand Traore ($8,000).  All three of these forwards would have a very difficult matchup against Barcelona on the road.  I’m assuming most people will play one of them in combination with a top forward, because playing two expensive forwards really limits what you can do at other positions.  Depay is the best player out of the three.  He has six goals and eight assists in Ligue 1 this year, to go along with one goal and four assists in UCL play.  He’s also averaging 3.3 chances created in the Champions League so far.  Points won’t come easy on Wednesday, but he’s going to be your best bet at cheap forward.  Watch for him to be chalky.  If you really want to punt, it’s worth noting that Moussa Dembele has four goals in his last two games.  He could be riding that high into this game if he starts over Traore.

UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown – Target Midfielders

Mo Salah (Liverpool @ Bayern Munich, $10,500) – For most of his FanDuel existence, Salah has been a top option in cash games, but I’m not sure that holds true on Wednesday with Messi available since the two will be difficult to play together.  Bayern have at times been susceptible on defense this season as they’re allowing exactly 1 goal per game at home.  Odds are Liverpool find the net on Wednesday, and Salah is the most likely player to do so.  He’s cheaper in UCL play than in the EPL, so feel free to fire him up in GPPs.  For $500 less, you can get Sadio Mane ($10,000) who has struggled scoring in the Champions League this year but has been in good form in England lately.

James Rodriguez (Liverpool @ Bayern Munich, $9,500) – James is a solid cash play on Wednesday in my mind.  He provides a lot of creativity in Bayern’s midfield and in the last five weeks he has three assists and a goal.  He’s also one of the better midfielders on this slate at creating chances.  If you don’t want to pay up for a Liverpool midfielder, James should be your next choice.

Value Midfielders

Javi Martinez (Liverpool @ Bayern Munich, $7,000) – This is a really good price to get good Bayern midfield exposure at home.  Javi’s goal and assist upside doesn’t really exist, but he does have three goals this season in all competitions.  However, Javi does do enough with peripherals to make himself useful for fantasy purposes.  He’s averaging over three tackles and interceptions per game, and if he can add a few blocks or clearances he should get you near 3x value.  On a slate where finding the studs will be a priority, Martinez’s solid price and ability to get peripherals makes him a good filler.

Serge Gnabry (Liverpool @ Bayern Munich, $6,500) – I’m going to keep pounding on midfield plays in this game.  Serge Gnabry is downright too cheap.  FanDuel is pricing him as if he’s only played UCL games this year where he does only have one 15+ FDP game.  However, if you do the research, you’ll see that Gnabry has seven goals and three assists in the Bundesliga this year, including five goals and an assist in his last five games in Germany.  Liverpool haven’t given up a ton of goals this year, but they’re playing a tough road game.  Gnabry is too good and too cheap to ignore at this price.

UEFA Champions League DFS Breakdown – Target Defenders and Goalies

Jordi Alba (Lyon @ Barcelona, $7,000) – I wrote Alba up in the last meeting between Lyon and Barcelona, and it worked out as he put up 21.8 FDP and eclipsed 3x value.  Remember that that game was a 0-0 draw he still put up a good game.  Alba actually lined up as an attacker in the first game, and he should again, so don’t be scared of the price tag because you’re essentially getting a midfielder.  Barcelona are massive favorites, and Alba will be involved early and often in their attack.  He has big upside in this game (including a likely clean sheet bonus) and is my favorite defender.

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Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool @ Bayern Munich, $6,500) – It’s impossible to ignore the fact that TAA was the slate’s 2nd leading scorer the last time.  TAA also has two other UCL games this season where he went over 24 FDP.  If this game opens up early, TAA will be in for another big game.  I expect him to be the chalky top defender, but for good reason.

Mats Hummels (Liverpool @ Bayern Munich, $6,000) – The two defenders I already mentioned are both wing backs and get a lot of their points from attacking stats.  Hummels is the opposite.  He’s the best defender on this slate at getting actually defensive stats.  He’s gone over 20 FDP and over 3x value in all but one of his UCL games this season.  The fact that he isn’t a little more expensive seems odd.  Hummels had a good fantasy game against Liverpool the first time with 20.6 FDP and he should be in line for another similar game.  I don’t expect him to be high owned, so you could exploit his ownership in GPPs.

Value Defenders

David Alaba (Liverpool @ Bayern Munich, $5,500) – David Alaba has been cleared for this game, and I suspect he’ll start.  Alaba is one of the more useful Bayern players from a fantasy view as he gets defensive stats while providing a decent attacking upside.  Without Joshua Kimmich on Wednesday, Bayern could be looking for someone else to step into that role of providing an attacking presence on the flank.  With his ability to get involved on all parts of the field and his affordable price, Alaba seems like a nice safe play in all formats.

Marcal (Lyon @ Barcelona, $4,000) – This is the first time in a while I’m writing up a Lyon player, and it’s because he’s minimum price.  Marcal only played in two UCL group stage games so his price is a little off.  He’s been playing much better from a fantasy perspective in Ligue 1 where he averages about 2.5 tackles and nearly 3 clearances and 3 interceptions per game.  Barcelona will control a lot of the ball near Lyon’s defense, which means Marcal will have plenty of chances to make plays and get peripheral stats.  For minimum price, he’s worth the punt.

Goalkeepers

Marc-Andre ter Stegen (Lyon @ Barcelona, $6,000) – The Barcelona keeper is the clear safe GK on the slate.  Barcelona are giving up less than one goal per game in La Liga this season.  If Lyon couldn’t score on them on their home pitch, I don’t think they will in Spain.  Obviously, Barcelona’s ability to control ball possession will limit the amount of saves ter Stegen has to make, but I feel good about his clean sheet and win bonuses.

Manuel Neuer (Liverpool @ Bayern Munich, $5,500) – It was tough to decide between Neuer and Alisson, but I have to give the nod to the home GK.  Neuer is a world class GK and Bayern’s defense could stymie Liverpool’s attack.  Liverpool only mustered two shots on goal at Anfield and trying to create chances in Germany will be even more tough on Wednesday.  A clean sheet and a win are not nearly as safe as with ter Stegen, but there is more save upside here.

Hopefully you had enough of the successful plays in yesterday’s article, and if not let’s bounce back on Wednesday!