5 reasons Duke won’t win the ACC Tournament

3. Duke is really bad shooting from the perimeter

After Williamson got hurt in the North Carolina game, Duke struggled to beat the opposition, winning by an average of just four points a game after outscoring teams by nearly 20 earlier in the season. The loss of Williamson’s inside scoring was huge because the Blue Devils are a really bad perimeter shooting team.

The Blue Devils shoot just 30.6 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks 334th in the country. Considering that only 353 teams play at the Division I level, this is shockingly bad for a team that is bidding for a no. 1 seed.

Williamson’s return should mask some of those problems, but if he is rusty it could cause issues if a team like North Carolina or Virginia gets hot from deep. The Blue Devils clearly haven’t demonstrated the ability to knock down outside shots, and it could come back to haunt them in Charlotte.

2. Duke’s path to the title is brutal

One of the fun parts of doing any bracket is looking at the path a team could face on their way to a championship. Taking one look at the ACC bracket reveals that Duke’s path to claiming the crown is extremely difficult.

First up should be a date with Syracuse and Jim Boeheim’s famous 2-3 zone. The Orange already scored one win over them this season, albeit with the Blue Devils missing both Cam Reddish and Tre Jones, and their poor perimeter shooting could make the zone an effective look against them.

If they advance past the Orange, they would likely draw a North Carolina team that has already beaten them twice this year, even if both of those games were without Williamson. Virginia would be the worst case scenario for a final matchup, even with them beating the Cavaliers twice already since that would be three straight days of elite competition.

1. Duke is on a cold streak at the ACC Tournament

The ACC Tournament has historically been an event that Duke dominates, with Mike Krzyzewski leading the Blue Devils to 10 titles in 13 seasons from 1999-2011. The worm has turned for them in recent years, however, with the Blue Devils only winning the ACC crown once since 2012.

That trend roughly correlates to the beginning of when Krzyzewski started investing heavily in one-and-done players to compete for national titles. That strategy paid off with a championship in 2015, but Duke has only made the ACC finals twice in that period, with their only win coming in 2017.

Their lack of experience hurts in tournament settings, which has allowed more experienced squads like North Carolina and Virginia to consistently go deep here. While the Blue Devils may have the most talent of anyone in Charlotte, recent history shows that it won’t be enough for Duke to cut down the nets on Saturday.