DraftKings NBA Picks March 13: Is Harden safe again?

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 12: Elfrid Payton #2 of the Orlando Magic reacts after getting fouled in the first half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena on January 12, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 13: Is Harden safe again?

You know, I can really get used to these balanced slates! We have another strong six gamer tonight for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. Only two players bust into the five figures, but we have several above 8 and 9k tonight. Who is worth paying for? Let’s check it out!

The money line was a solid 281.75 last night. A total disaster on Lakers value and a poor night from Lou Williams kept me out of the money, but not by much.

brugal took this down with 355.75 DraftKings points. The build centered around the great value from Elfrid Payton and Jalen Brunson with strong nights from Embiid, C.J. McCollum, and Ben Simmons.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 02: Russell Westbrook #0 of the Oklahoma City Thunder dribbles the ball up court during a 107-100 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on January 02, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook torched Brooklyn for 71.75 DraftKings points earlier this year. Brooklyn is better defensive team than they were then, and it probably has a lot to do with Kenny Atkinson constantly rotating in fresh bodies. I don’t expect another 70 bomb from Russ, but I can totally see him breaking 60 here. That makes him worth the money.

Even if the rest of his team hasn’t followed suit, Stephen Curry has brought his best to the Rockets this year. Curry put up 99.75 DraftKings points in the first two games. It seems reasonable that we can expect him right around 50 again. 5.5x value from a star player will jump-start your lineup pretty quickly.

Honorable Mention:

I’ve expected Memphis to take it easy with Mike Conley, but that has been far from the case. Conley has 156 DraftKings points over the last three games, all Memphis wins. This team didn’t go into full tank mode. They are finding out what they need in the offseason to make them a factor next year. Conley obviously has a lot left in the tank. He dropped 40 DraftKings points on Atlanta earlier this year. He should be at least at that mark tonight.

I can see running Trae Young back against Conley with the way he is playing now, but this isn’t a great matchup for him. Young’s price is low enough that he doesn’t need a ceiling game though. Speaking of bad matchups, statistics say that this is for Chris Paul, but he doesn’t believe it. CP3 has gone for 96.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Warriors. He has kept up with Curry in those meetings, and you can have him for $2,400 less.

Tomas Satoransky hasn’t been under 24 DraftKings points in over a month and has topped 5x value even at this price in four straight. If you are a regular reader, you’ve seen me mention how Orlando’s great ranking against point guards is deceptive. The Magic continue to be well below average against point guards over the last month or so. Satoransky is priced right to take a shot with tonight. Especially when you consider that he shares a price with Winslow and Dinwiddie.

Dark Horses:

The volume alone makes Tyler Johnson worth a look. Utah is still beat up at the point. Rubio may return tonight, but I would expect him to be limited and Exum is still on a minutes limit as well. This matchup isn’t as tough as it normally would be. I want some exposure here, but it’s still a good Utah team. I’m not going to go too crazy.

Delon Wright continues to see good minutes for Memphis, but his production has dropped some. Not to the point where I’m scared off, but it’s a trend to watch. That said, Memphis is playing the Hawks here, so I expect good numbers from everyone that sees good court time.

The return of Goran Dragic caused a drop in minutes for Justise Winslow, but we didn’t seen enough production out of Dragic in his limited minutes to get me to want to play him. I would much rather roll with Ish Smith, who continues to outperform Reggie Jackson, and not by a little.

My pick: Curry(PG); Exum(PG)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 24: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on against the Golden State Warriors in the first half at Capital One Arena on January 24, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Even though Chris Paul played in both games against the Warriors this year, James Harden still has 131.75 DraftKings points in those two games. Why would that change? I don’t think it will. Harden could be the top play of the night, even against a team like the Warriors. Harden hasn’t topped 60 in ten days, but that should change here.

Bradley Beal remains a top option with a lack of other options on the Wizards. He has only been under 50 DraftKings points twice in the last dozen games. Orlando is a decent team so I wouldn’t expect a huge score, but there also isn’t any reason to believe that Beal will be under 50.

This looks like a great spot for Donovan Mitchell, but he has actually struggled against Phoenix this year. If Rubio is out, I still like Mitchell though. And there is no way I’m running Devin Booker against Utah. This is the definition of a batch matchup for him.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell’s price is dropping, but I still wouldn’t use him. Not with Klay Thompson $300 less and on an absolute tear right now. Klay has 107.5 DraftKings points in the last two games and is 23-44 from the floor. Ride this hot streak while it lasts! It should against Houston!

Kelly Oubre has six straight games with more than 30 DraftKings points, but he has only hit 6x value once. The chances of him bucking that trend against Utah aren’t good. The usage is solid, but I’ll save him for another day. There’s a lot of value with Phoenix, but most of it I don’t want to run at a team like Utah. The Jazz are near the top of almost every defensive category you can think of.

Dennis Schroder continues to perform at a solid level, but his price is to the point where it’s harder to get 6x value or more out of him. Schroder has not been below 22 DraftKings points in over a month, but he has only broken out of the 20’s four times. I view him as more of a cash game play right now.

Dark Horses:

Call me sentimental, but I would much rather throw Dwyane Wade out there than mess with Evan Fournier right now. Eric Gordon looks like a strong play against the Warriors as well in this price range. Personally, Terrence Ross has more upside than all of the rest, but we all know his floor is one of the worst in the league.

Avery Bradley is still the same price, and he keeps dropping 30’s like nothing. Bradley is again one of my favorite value picks. He has a ton of upside against Atlanta. Luke Kennard is a solid pick tonight as well, but if you only have room for one, I can’t justify playing him over Bradley.

Mikal Bridges is playing enough to tempt us, but I don’t see massive upside and I see a stout defense in Utah. If this game turns into a blowout Bridges could see more run, but I still don’t see him hitting much more than 6x value. That’s still a solid return though.

My pick: Harden(SG), Bradley(G), Bridges(F); Harden(SG), Bradley(G)

OAKLAND, CA – FEBRUARY 06: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder reacts after making a three-point shot over Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors during the second half of their NBA basketball game at ORACLE Arena on February 6, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George, despite the tough matchup on paper, went berserk on Brooklyn in the first meeting. George racked up 77.25 DraftKings points in 37 minutes in that game. The Clippers and Jazz have held George under wraps lately mostly due to foul trouble. This looks like a good time to get back on the George train. Yes, I would play him over Westbrook tonight. I don’t know if I would play PG over Harde, but I am definitely in favor of using them together.

Honorable Mention:

There is a massive drop at SF with Durant out tonight. The middle tier doesn’t look all that special. For whatever reason, Joe Ingles has suffered with Rubio off the court. If Rubio is in, play Ingles and fade Mitchell. If Rubio plays, use Mitchell and leave Ingles off.

Right now I want the consistency of Jabari Parker off the bench over an enigmatic, but starting, Trevor Ariza. Honestly, I’m not sure I want to run either of them at Orlando. The Magic are pretty solid all around. This just solidifies Parker if you want to run a Wizard at that front, though that could change if Gordon is held out.

Jonathan Isaac is no longer a certain 5x value, but this is a matchup to take advantage of. Washington is pretty weak defensively at every position. If the Wizards pace this up, Isaac is going to hit 6x value with ease. Even if they don’t Isaac is worth taking a shot with tonight.

Dark Horses:

Taurean Prince feasted on Memphis earlier this year to the tune of 43.5 DraftKings points. He seems to have earned his share of the minutes back, but hasn’t really put up another big line yet. He is capable though. Jae Crowder is probably a safer alternative to Prince, but neither are a bad choice for value tonight.

As long as the Nets are starting Rodions Kurucs, he is worth a look. Particularly in cash games. However, if Rubio is out again, I’m going with Royce O’Neale instead. He went for 28.5 against Phoenix earlier this year with Rubio out.

My pick: Prince(SF); George(SF), Kurucs(F)

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 05: John Collins #20 of the Atlanta Hawks reacts after being charged with a foul against the Washington Wizards at State Farm Arena on December 5, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

It has been a really tough run for Blake Griffin lately, but if he is going to be back on track, it should be here against Miami. It’s a little tougher for Drummond up front, and Blake has 151 DraftKings points in three games with the Heat this year. I really want to chase this, but Blake has only been over 40 DraftKings points once since February 25th. I just don’t know if I can do it. There are better, and probably more reliable, places to spend.

John Collins has only played 30 minutes in each of the last two games, but he has 109.5 DraftKings points to show for it. Even though the Hawks are limiting his work, Collins is still destroying weaker fronts. Memphis’ certainly qualifies. This game could be a sneaky source of fantasy goodness, and Collins is a big part of that.

Honorable Mention:

Aaron Gordon has 127.5 DraftKings points in three games against the Wizards this year, but he’s sitting out there with a questionable tag again. If Gordon is starting this game, I’m okay using him anyway. The price and the matchup are right. Orlando also plays the first game of the night, so we have time to properly rework the lineup if Gordon is held out.

Derrick Favors has struggled over the last couple of games, so I’m ready to jump back on Kenneth Faried here. Faried had another 30+ DraftKings point game against Charlotte. Every game Faried has played in Houston, he’s come away with between 30 and 40 DraftKings points except for the game against Charlotte when he got hurt. I want this kind of consistency in my lineups. Especially when it amounts to a guaranteed 6x value. For those worried about the matchup, Faried put 38 DraftKings points on the Warriors during this streak.

Dark Horses:

I’ve been running power forwards at Brooklyn as well recently. It has worked with the exception of Blake, so this looks like a nice spot for Jerami Grant. Right now it looks as thought Markieff is going to miss the game as well, so Grant should see a few extra minutes against a weak front.

Anything below Grant is a serious crapshoot. I still like Jeff Green, but this is a tough matchup for him. Ivan Rabb looks like a strong play against Memphis but the playing time hasn’t been there for him lately. The same is true for Thomas Bryant.

My pick: Faried(PF), Green(F); Faried(PF)

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 08: DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the Golden State Warriors during the second half of the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on February 08, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Warriors defeated the Suns 117-107. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

As I mentioned earlier, Andre Drummond has struggled against the Heat this year. He only has 109 DraftKings points in three games against Miami, and he’s $1,300 more than Blake. No thanks! Nikola Vucevic is a much better play against the Wizards for $100 less.

Rudy Gobert could be a better option than both of them. Gobert went for 47.5 DraftKings points in his only game against Phoenix this year. The blowout potential here is big, but Gobert did all of that damage in 33 minutes of court time in the first meeting. Gobert is my favorite play at center. When you add the fact that he’s only $8,200, that gives us a lot of room to build the rest of our lineup.