Good day and greetings from your NCAA Basketball Bets to win host. Wednesday provides several opportunities to take advantage of the reverse strategy to the regular season.
Saturday our NCAA Basketball Bets went 4-6 dropping the overall record to 117-97-2.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.
Lines are very important and are key to creating value. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
All times Eastern, here we go with our NCAA basketball bets to win:
Miami-Florida +7 1/2 vs Virginia Tech, 2:30 pm
These conference tournaments, except for the very powerful teams, produce many wild and wacky results. Often the team that covered twice in the regular season and looks like an ATS lock flames out.
This looks like the case here. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in recent meetings and the Hurricanes could easily find a way to surprise the Hokies today. What seems to be logical turns completely around in these tourneys, often lifting a non contender into March Madness playoffs with a conference win.
I expect the public money to run at least 2-1 on Virginia Tech but the line not to move too much – and I will be playing Miami Florida to cover.
Notre Dame +8 versus Louisville, 7 pm
Louisville has had a most difficult time of it away from home, and that includes neutral site games. They are 14-4 straight up at home but only 5-6 in road games and more importantly 0-2 in neutral site games. In fact they have dropped the last 6/8 neutral site games to the number.
Notre Dame should be able to keep this game close if not surprise Louisville with an outright win. I will be giving the Irish a try as I expect the bulk of the public money to pour in on Louisville, hopefully giving us an even better line.
NCAA Basketball Bets To Win – Bulldogs upend Tigers And Stays UNDER
Georgia +4 versus Missouri, 7 pm and UNDER 130
A little over a week ago, Georgia lost (got annihilated) at home to Missouri 39-64 as a 4 point favorite. Conference tourneys have a sneaky way of turning things around.
The biggest problem Georgia has to deal with immediately is the loss of their second leading scorer and good rebounder Rayshaun Hammonds. Without him in the lineup these last 2 games Georgia has flailed on the offensive end producing a couple of ugly losses.
In fact in the last 2 games the game has gone under to the posted total by a combined 63 points. Clearly the linesman has not yet caught up to the new way Georgia is playing even though they have adjusted the total down by 6 points.
I believe the odds of winning both bets outweigh the chances of dropping both because if Georgia has not figured out a way to score more points, the total should end up around 120 or lower. However they do intend to clamp down on defense so we could get a double winner here.
Butler -1 versus Providence, 7 pm
The last game of the season saw these 2 teams play each-other with the result being a 13 point victory for Providence in Providence. That showed a wide gap in play as the Friars were a +4 at home while Butler was a -6. Now, on a neutral court, Butler holds a slight advantage that should be enough to grab the win.
Butler over the years has had a long-standing edge in neutral site games as they have gone 44-18 in that venue. Providence for their part has had loads of trouble following up on an ATS win, going 0-7 in recent play.
The public should be on Providence slightly which will probably provide a floor to this spread, possibly turning Butler into an underdog. I have played and may again play Butler at -1 or better.
NCAA Basketball Bets To Win – Northwestern Topples Illinois
Bucknell +4 versus Colgate, 7:30 pm
Bucknell has picked up their level of play as of late, covering their last 2 easily and entering the tournament on a mini high. Colgate after a 5 game ATS winning streak has now lost 2 of 3 to the line although they continue to pound out the straight up wins.
This winning streak has not been lost on the oddsmaker as the current line sitting at 4 is about 3 points higher than it should be looking at the current power rating of these 2 teams on a neutral court. Let’s take the value in what could be a close game and go with Bucknell, providing you can take at least +3.
Vanderbilt +3 1/2 versus Texas A&M, 9:30 pm
Both teams enter the conference tournament with losing records and poor recent play. The public is currently backing Texas A&M very strongly as over 72% of wagers have been placed on the favorite. I expect this to continue given the fact that A&M covered both meetings in the regular season and the base power play line shows A&M should be favored by 6 points.
For those interested in the total on this game, all the trends point to the under. It has, however, already moved down 2 points from the opening number to 132 1/2.
Northwestern +2 versus Illinois, 9 pm
Northwestern has been much better on neutral courts having gone 2-1 straight up while Illinois has dropped 5 of 6 games. However with Illinois covering the last 8 games in their head to head series, I expect the public to back Illinois heavily and hopefully push the line even higher.
Interestingly with all the ATS losses Northwestern has posted recently, they still are listed as the better team in the power ratings. Illinois has been just as bad as Northwestern and is actually over valued as a favorite here today.
In addition, even though Illinois is 8-0 ATS versus Northwestern, the underdog is 5-1 ATS over the last 6 games these 2 teams have played against each-other.
That’s it for today