English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 3/16/19

Rather than the normal 6-game Saturday main slate, there will only be three games played in the English Premier League DFS Saturday. 

Whether you’re hot from a DFS perspective from reading my UCL content this week, or you need a bounce back from a tough week, keep reading my English Premier League DFS Breakdown to get all the information you need.

On Saturday, West Ham United will be the biggest favorites (-1.0) at home over Huddersfield.  The goal total over/under is set at 2.5, and the Hammers will no doubt be a popular stack against the last place team.  Huddersfield won’t offer much from a fantasy perspective, so this is more of a place to stack just one team.

Perhaps a more intriguing game stack is Leicester traveling to Turf Moor to take on Burnley.  The spread in this game actually sits at 0.0, but the Leicester money line is more favorable.  The goal total over/under is set at 2.5 just like the West Ham game.  With the way both defenses have been playing, I’d take the over.  Anyone fading West Ham will most likely be targeting this one instead.

The last game on the slate has Bournemouth hosting Newcastle.  Bournemouth are favored (-0.5) and the over/under is 2.5.  Bournemouth will be another popular team to stack given the spread and some recognizable names.

The meaningful injury news on this slate is really limited, and it’s always a good thing to see players healthy and make it easy on us when making a lineup.  However, David Brooks did pick up an injury in Bournemouth’s last game.  It was Dominic Solanke who came on for him last weekend, and if Brooks can’t play this week, there will be some shuffling going on in Bournemouth’s attack.  That is a situation to watch.

Jonathon Hogg is doubtful for Saturday and it would likely be Aaron Mooy who steps in for him.  This isn’t really a relevant fantasy situation.

Jamaal Lascelles was also subbed off with an injury last week.  Paul Dummett came on for him at halftime, and if Lascelles can’t go, this will open up a spot for a cheap Newcastle defender to start and provide some value.

That’s it from a Vegas and an injury standpoint, so let’s get to the specific plays.

English Premier League DFS: Target Forwards

Jamie Vardy (Leicester City @ Burnley, $12,000) – I wrote up Vardy last weekend and it was a bomb play as he scored twice en route to 55.6 FDP.  This is quite the price to pay for Vardy but rostering him is manageable on this small slate with few studs.

Normally, I’m a little wary of Leicester on the road, but this is still a prime match-up.  Burnley has allowed the second most goals in the EPL this year (1.9 per game in all games, 1.86 in home games).  Burnley is also allowing 3.0 goals per game in their last three games.

Liverpool did put up a 4-spot on them, but they still allowed two to Newcastle and three to Palace.  Out of nowhere, Vardy has five goals in his last five EPL appearances, and he has a good chance to continue that streak on Saturday.

Callum Wilson (Newcastle @ Bournemouth, $10,000) – Wilson returned after nearly two months out with an injury, and he picked up right where he left off.  Wilson scored a goal and added an assist in a 35 FDP game against Huddersfield.

While Newcastle isn’t as bad as Huddersfield on defense, this is still a solid match-up for him.  Sure, a lot of people will play Salomon Rondon ($11,000) or Ayoze Perez ($10,500), but Newcastle is hard to trust away from home.  I’d rather take the savings and the home striker in Wilson.

English Premier League DFS: Value Forwards

Ashley Barnes (Leicester City @ Burnley, $9,500) – Like I mentioned in the Vegas recap, this game has a 2.5 goal total over/under, but I’m willing to bet it goes over.  Neither defense has been able to stop anyone lately.

Leicester have given up 11 goals in their last five EPL games, including four to Palace.  It’s been a frustrating season for Burnley, but Ashley Barnes has actually been good.  Barnes has scored in five of his last seven EPL games, and one in which he didn’t was a brutal matchup against Liverpool.

Barnes is in good form, he’s facing defense that’s been weak as of late, and he’s playing at home.  Barnes is a great forward to pair with one of the top-priced targets.  You could also make Barnes you primary forward and choose a second punt, which gives you more to pay up with at other positions.

Chicharito (Huddersfield @ West Ham, $8,500) – I didn’t want to write up Chicharito after he burned me against Cardiff last weekend, but I almost feel obligated.  He’s the starting striker on the biggest favorite.

His opponent is giving up over two goals per game on the road.  He’s cheap.  He’s also inconsistent and doesn’t offer much of a floor.  I would stay away from him in cash games if you can, but he’s definitely GPP-viable.

English Premier League DFS: Target Midfielders

James Maddison (Leicester City @ Burnley, $9,500) – If you read my breakdowns often, you’re probably tired of seeing Maddison.  I’m not tired of playing him though, so you’re going to continue to see him.  I don’t have to tell you that Maddison makes his money off creating chances (league leader, actually).

Burnley give up a ton of chances and they give up crosses which Maddison also excels at sending.  I foresee a lot of people paying up for West Ham and Bournemouth attackers, which could leave guys like Maddison low-owned in what could be a high-scoring game and an underrated game stack.

Youri Tielemans ($8,500) has been playing well lately and is a solid option if you’re looking for Leicester exposure but can’t afford Maddison.  Harvey Barnes ($7,000) is even viable in this game at an affordable price.

Ryan Fraser (Newcastle @ Bournemouth, $9,000) – “It’s been tough for Fraser since his return, but he’s played in three straight games now so he should have his feet back under him.  A match-up with Huddersfield is a perfect place for Fraser to return to the score sheet.

His ability to get peripherals plus this match-up should give him a decently safe floor with goal/assist upside.”  This was a part of my write up last weekend for Fraser, and he proved my right with a goal and an assist on his way to a 39.9 FDP game (5.3x value at his $7,500 price tag).  Callum Wilson’s return really helped Bournemouth’s other attackers like Fraser.

This week, Fraser got a massive $1,500 price raise, so I can understand fading.  However, this is another solid match-up at home against a lesser Newcastle team.  He offers more goal upside than Maddison, but a lower floor.

English Premier League DFS: Value Midfielders

Felipe Anderson (Huddersfield @ West Ham, $7,500) – There is a large pack of midfielders that are wildly overpriced on this slate, so I’m skipping all the way down to Anderson.  It’s been a rough last three games for Anderson as he did not create any chances and had zero shots on goal.

That’s going to change Saturday in a great match-up at home.  The best part about Anderson struggling is that his price came way down.  He’s too good for this price tag and he should have a productive fantasy game Saturday against the last place Huddersfield side.

If you need a value midfielder, but don’t want to punt all the way down, look at Anderson.  If you don’t have the money but want exposure to the biggest favorite on the slate, Manuel Lanzini ($5,000) is criminally cheap.

Lanzini is just 9 months removed from an ACL rupture, so he’s still getting is feet back under him.  Lanzini has 19 goals and 10 assists in his three years in the EPL, and sooner or later he’s going to get back on the score-sheet.

You won’t find a player as talented as him for this price.  Did I mention that Huddersfield is in the last place and this is a great match-up?

Matt Ritchie (Newcastle @ Bournemouth, $7,500) – It didn’t feel right only leaving you with one value midfielder written up, so here’s a second.  Matt Ritchie almost always collects enough peripherals to get you between 2x and 3x value.

That’s about what I’m expecting from him Saturday.  Believe it or not, Bournemouth have actually given up the fourth most goals in the EPL this season.  I’m not all over this play because Ritchie and Newcastle are playing on the road where they’re sometimes hard to trust.

If you’re going to play Perez/Rondon in GPPs, Ritchie would be a solid secondary Newcastle piece to pair with them.  If not, there are other better value players.

English Premier League DFS: Target Defenders

Ben Chilwell (Leicester City @ Burnley, $7,000) – I’m going to keep coming back to this game as one to stack.  Chilwell is back to the attacking defender we know with eight chances created in his last three games.

Against Burnley he’ll have the liberty to get up the field on the outside and create more chances.  He’ll also have work to do on defense.  This gives Chilwell a good floor in my opinion on Saturday, with 4x upside as well.  Ricardo Pereira ($6,000) will save you $1,000 with similar upside in this match-up.

English Premier League DFS: Value Defenders

Terence Kongolo (Huddersfield @ West Ham, $4,500) – Kongolo has gone for 3x value in three straight games, and I would bet that streak continues Saturday.  West Ham aren’t a great attacking team, but they force their opponents into making plays on defense.

Kongolo can get defensive peripherals of all kinds making his floor solid.  Unfortunately, a clean sheet bonus isn’t likely here but he’s still a good value play on defense.

Ryan Fredericks (Huddersfield @ West Ham, $4,500) – Since joining West Ham’s regular starters, Frederick’s has been a fantasy target of mine often.  In his last five games, Frederick’s has gone over 3x value three time (4x once).  Like Kongolo, he can get all the different defensive peripherals creating a nice floor.  Unlike Kongolo however, he could get a clean sheet bonus on Saturday.

English Premier League DFS: Goalkeepers

Artur Boruc (Newcastle @ Bournemouth, $5,500) – There really aren’t any super safe GKs on this slate, but Boruc has a solid match-up.  Newcastle have only 10 away goals in 14 games (0.71 per game).  Bournemouth’s defense hasn’t been great but they are much better at home than they are overall.  Newcastle attackers don’t look that appealing on this slate, so Boruc will likely fit a lot of builds that don’t have Perez/Rondon.

Lukasz Fabianski (Huddersfield @ West Ham, $6,500) – Normally, I would put more emphasis on Fabianski on this slate, but there are two main reasons why I won’t.  The first is price.  This is a lot to pay for a GK like Fabianski (FanDuel likely priced him up because of the smaller slate).

West Ham’s defense isn’t great (1.33 goals allowed at home), but the matchup is against Huddersfield who have only scored eight in 14 away games.  Fabianski’s save upside is limited, and there’s always a chance they’ll concede which kills his value.  Saving $1,000 and going with Buruc seems like the safer english premier league dfs option, but Fabianski is playable, nonetheless.

Thanks for reading my English Premier League DFS Breakdown!