Champions League progress means more games at the most important time of the season for title challengers, but does it actually impact league performance?
Ahead of Liverpool’s match against Bayern Munich on Wednesday, Jurgen Klopp was asked whether a Champions League exit might benefit his side as they chase a first league title in almost 30 years. The German scoffed at the suggestion.
“It only happens if you’re Liverpool manager and the pundits come from Manchester United,” he said, a reference to comments made by former United player and current Sky pundit Gary Neville, who said losing to Bayern might help the Reds’ Premier League title challenge.
Klopp’s reaction was understandable, but nor is the idea as outrageous as he made it seem. Indeed, Real Madrid have won four of the past five European titles, and only a single Liga in that same time frame.
However, going back further, and looking beyond Madrid (who are famous for caring far more about the Champions League than any other trophy), it seems the double is still as achievable a target for Europe’s elite as it ever was.
From 2001 to 2010, six of 10 Champions League winners also won their domestic league. From 2011 to 2018, four of eight Champions League winners also won their domestic league. Of the eight sides who have failed to win the double this century, four for them were Real Madrid (’02, ’14, ’16, ’18).
Of course, for Liverpool fans — Premier League fans in general, really — this is probably not that helpful. La Liga is (with respect to Atletico Madrid) essentially a two-horse race these days, where even in an off-year (like this one) Barca or Real end up on the podium.
The Bundesliga and Serie A are even more skewed. Bayern have won six BuLi titles in a row, Juve seven Scudettos. The wealth gap between these sides and their domestic rivals is so great that they can win the league without much effort, allowing them to focus more on Europe.
The Premier League, then, is the lone exception. It’s no more equitable than any other big league in Europe, but it does have more teams with the financial clout to at least challenge for the title on a yearly basis, meaning a loss of focus in the league is more likely to be punished.
And so, with the Premier League tighter at the top (both the title and Champions League spots are still up for grabs) than any other of Europe’s big leagues, and all big six sides still in contention in Europe, it’s worth taking a closer look at how Premier League sides have been impacted by progressing deep in European competition.
Examining the past 15 seasons for some sign of correlation between Champions League and Premier League results gives some interesting, although inconclusive results.
We looked at the Premier League team(s) who made it furthest in the Champions League every season from 2004-05 to 2017-18, comparing their league position in the first week of February, usually matchday 25, and at the end of the season.
We gave all qualifying teams a score based on the change in their league position. If they were fifth on matchday 25 and sixth after matchday 38, they got a minus-1. If they were fourth on matchday 25 and second after matchday 38, they got a plus-2.
Positive correlation from 2005 to 2009
English teams dominated the Champions League in the latter half of the 2000s, and during this time there appeared to be direct correlation between Champions League success and domestic league position.
Between 2006 and 2009 Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United alternated their Champions League success. United beat Chelsea in the 2008 final during the peak of English dominance in Europe. All four of these teams ended the season ranked one spot higher than they were at the start of the Champions League knockout rounds.
No correlation from 2010 until present
The trend started changing at the turn of the decade, however, when English teams stopped being a regular fixture in the latter stages of the Champions League — the only exception being Chelsea’s 2012 coronation as Europe’s top club.
That season the Blues actually went down one spot in the standings as they advanced in Europe between February and May. Particularly dire were the 2013 and 2015 seasons, during which no English team made it past the round of 16.
Chelsea and City made the semifinals in 2014 and 2016, respectively, and finished the Premier League in the same spot that they occupied on matchday 25.
2017 was another unsuccessful and somewhat bizarre year for English clubs. Leicester were the top performers in the Champions League courtesy of their run to the quarterfinal, and while their position also improved, it’s hard to compare them to the other teams we looked at given they spent the season in the bottom half of the table rather than challenging for the title (understandably so, given the circumstances of their title win).
How is domestic performance indicative of European success?
We can also look at the question from the other direction. How well do Premier League title winners perform in the Champions League?
Last season, Manchester City were ousted in the quarterfinals, leaving them almost two months to focus exclusively on breaking domestic league records. Of course, by then their league lead was so large it was mostly a formality. They, more than any team in recent Premier League history, could afford to be distracted.
In 2016 and 2017, title winners Leicester and Chelsea weren’t involved in European competition at all, allowing them to focus exclusively on winning the league.
In 2015 and 2014, Premier League champions Chelsea and Manchester City were ousted from the Champions League in the round of 16, once again leaving them ample time and only one objective: the league title.
In fact, not since Manchester United did it in 2008 has a Premier League team won a European and domestic league double.
All of which seems to explain opinions like Neville’s about Liverpool. With the increased demands on players and the higher number of Premier League challengers (the likes of Manchester City and Tottenham were never in the mix a decade ago) it’s not unreasonable to wonder if manager’s should prioritize one trophy over the other.
But while it’s a matter of fact that this rare double has proved too lofty a goal for most English clubs, history shows that advancing in the competition isn’t always nuisance.
On top of that, Liverpool’s win against Bayern Munich means four Premier League teams will be in the hat for the quarterfinal draw on Friday, the first time that’s happened since 2009.
That year, a Manchester United side featuring a certain Sky Sports pundit made it to the Champions League final and won the Premier League. Maybe Liverpool and City can have it all.