NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday March 14 – Uncle Drew Time!

Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Wednesday’s NBA DFS slate was one that frankly, I got totally wrong. Not so much the plays – as I was focused on Westbrook and PG13 with Beal and Vucevic who all ended up as four of the top eight scorers – but it was more the ownership that I got wrong. I really thought the Warriors/Rockets would be where everyone prioritized but it was actually Nikola Vucevic and Russell Westbrook who were the two highest owned plays on the slate with 50-60% ownership in GPP’s while James Harden as an example was less than 15% owned.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Thursday Slate Overview:

We have a six game slate on Thursday Night and my initial thought diving into this slate is that we need to really dig deep. Sure we have a ton of stars still and some nice Vegas totals but we also have a whole lot of teams playing meaningless games and a whole lot of blowout concerns across this landscape to avoid.

If all of that was not enough – we also have weather issue that are causing issues for teams on this slate – consider the Mavericks and Nuggets:

So we have a Dallas team, playing for nothing, with a hobbled star in Luka Doncic who admitted after last game he was not 100% and they have to fly same day into the thin air of Denver and play one of the best teams in the NBA? The Nuggets being only favored by 11 here seems low.

More broadly, 10 of the 12 teams on this slate see a neutral or negative pace game environment. We also have multiple teams – the Thunder, Magic and Jazz – all playing on the tail end of a back to back.

And if all that isn’t enough – we have a ton of injury news to sort through with guys like Kyle Lowry, Jeff Teague, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart all carrying injury tags while players like Serge Ibaka are out due to suspension.

The more I look at this slate at first glance, it feels like there are more spots I could argue to avoid then actually play which is always a terrifying place to begin but here we go!

NBA DFS – Finding a Core:

If there is one spot, that feels…dare I say “safe” on this slate, it is likely the Boston Celtics who get the largest pace boost of any team in action tonight as they take on the Sacramento Kings. In the last 10 games the Kings are playing at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA and when you start digging into the pricing on the Celtics core, they all feel a tad under-priced.

In addition to the pace boost, the Celtics could end up a bit short-handed with Marcus Smart really being the name to watch here as he missed practice yesterday due to illness. Nobody is really going to see a big usage or FP/M jump if Smart misses because he is not a high usage player to begin with, but it will take a guy with a 30 minute starting role off the court which could solidify the minutes for fringe guys like Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward.

Let’s not bury the lead though – Kyrie Irving ($15.9K) feels like one of the best point per dollar plays on this slate when you consider the uptick in pace and the match-up. The last two games, the Kings have given up 39 fantasy points to both Tomas Satoransky and Dennis Smith Jr. so what are they going to give up with a player of Kyrie’s talent level?

Al Horford ($12.4K) just dropped 50 fantasy points on this Kings team a few games ago (in a game Kyrie missed mind you) and he is only $12.4K? Marcus Morris ($8.7K) has 32 fantasy points in that game which would exceed 3.6x value at this price point. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward sit priced right around $9K each and have 25-30 minute role security off the bench that could be pushed even higher if Smart misses and if for some reason Jayson Tatum is unable to return from his shoulder injury.

Honestly – I could make the case for 4-5 Celtics in your lineups today based solely on the match-up and the pricing. Kyrie and Horford feel like building blocks on this slate and depending on the status of Marcus Smart – it could push guys like Brown and Hayward into consideration but if Smart plays, I likely would only look to Marcus Morris as a fringe play.

NBA DFS – Rinse and Repeat:

Much like Wednesday’s slate, it feels like Nikola Vucevic ($16.8K) is just under-priced which led him to be over 60% owned in GPP’s on FantasyDraft and frankly, this seems like it could happen all over again. Vuc will take on a Cavaliers team that is banged up (both Thompson and Nance missed Tuesday’s game) and he just destroyed this match-up a few games ago where he put up 61 fantasy points on the back of 28 and 13.

What exactly has changed that makes you think he can’t destroy this price point once again?

The Cavaliers have already announced that Larry Nance Jr. will miss tonight’s game and it does not appear like Tristan Thompson will be able to return which means Ante Zizic ($7.7K) will once again get 30+ minutes and becomes an elite value play you can play as a standalone or alongside Vuc to offset some of his salary.

The guy that I really have some GPP interest in this game that I hope goes a bit over-looked is Collin Sexton ($9.5K). Take a look at the last three games for the Cavs rookie:

• 35 minutes – 20 FGA
• 36 minutes – 18 FGA
• 35 minutes – 17 FGA

In those three games, Sexton has put up 32, 34 and 43 fantasy points for an average of 36 fantasy points which would exceed 3.8x value at this price point.

You will notice that this $8-9K tier today is pretty strong with guys like Zizic, Sexton and the Celtics trio of Morris, Hayward and Brown so while I do not think we need any true “punts” there is enough of this under-priced value to make fitting in a stud alongside Kyrie and Vuc quite doable.

Russell Westbrook ($19.3K) is the most expensive play on the slate but it feels “easy” to fit him in almost as a last man in, which sounds crazy. I know the Pacers are tough defensively and this is “Paul George Narrative” heading back to Indiana but there is something to be said on this slate for taking the raw point security and triple-double upside that Russ brings every single night.

Watching that Nets-Thunder game last night and seeing PG13 with his shoulder wrapped every time he got a breather makes me lean towards simply locking in Westbrook again as the stud to carry your line-up once again.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup. 

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

G: Russell Westbrook

G: Kyrie Irving

G: Collin Sexton

F/C: Al Horford

F/C: Nikola Vucevic 

F/C: Ante Zizic

UTIL: Jaylen Brown

UTIL: Gordon Hayward

Slate Overview: Looking at this lineup as constructed, it is interesting to me how I landed here. first and foremost, stars like Kyrie and Vuc seem far too cheap and they become building blocks for me in games where I feel like 50 points is the floor with 60+ fantasy ceilings.

The Celtics, especially if Marcus Smart is out, feel entirely too cheap in a massive pace up spot against the Kings which really provides our value. Not to be outdone, there is value to be had in Cleveland with both Nance and Thompson sidelined (or likely to be) and after all that – I had the salary left over to “fit in” Russell Westbrook.

I did not set out to prioritize Russ or any of the high dollar stars on this slate, but it is interesting to see how that build took shape and gave me 3 studs to build around with a mid-range value core that all has 30+ minute paths and upside.

Enjoy the slate – watch for news and we will see you back here for Friday.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!