The Whiteboard: NBA anti-tanking changes seem to be doing their job so far

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To address what the NBA league office clearly felt was a problem, the NBA introduced new draft lottery odds this season. These new, flattened odds mean more teams near the bottom of the standings have a shot to get a top pick. Fans of the worst three to four teams aren’t huge fans of this right now, but it’s hard to argue it hasn’t gotten the desired result thus far.

There are a couple of teams that have been abjectly terrible lately, even with the new odds. The New York Knicks have the NBA’s worst record at 13-55, and the Knicks are 2-8 in their last 10. Not great. Additionally, the Dallas Mavericks have become an absolute dumpster fire of late after a fun start to the season. The Mavs have lost six straight games and are 1-9 in their last 10.

Outside of New York and Dallas, the other seven teams in the bottom-nine are all at least 4-6 in their last 10 games. Some of them, like the Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers, have been downright feisty since the All-Star Break.

All of those teams would have been enjoying some bittersweet victories in the old system when teams outside of the top four had greatly reduced odds of getting a good pick. Let’s use the Hawks as an example.

Atlanta is now the fifth-worst team in the NBA after playing some good basketball of late. The Hawks have a 10.5 percent chance at the first pick in the draft, and a combined 42.1 percent chance of getting a pick in the top four. The league-worst Knicks have a 14.0 percent chance of getting the top pick and a combined 52.1 percent chance of a top-four pick.

That’s a huge difference from the old system, in which the Knicks would’ve had a 25 percent chance at the first pick and a combined 100 percent chance of a top-four pick, while the Hawks would’ve had just an 8.8 percent chance at the first pick and a combined 29.2 percent chance at a top-four pick.

There’s still more incentive for teams to be absolute garbage in the standings when looking purely at the lottery odds, but it no longer feels like the end of the world for a young team to win a few games thanks to their players getting better throughout the course of the season.

The Hawks are a great example of that principle in practice. The Cavaliers, Suns and Bulls have new additions making them bearable to watch lately, with Kevin Love returning to action in Cleveland and Kelly Oubre and Otto Porter adding substance to Phoenix and Chicago.

Some teams are going to suck regardless, but it is nice to look at the NBA’s nightly schedule and not see a bunch of teams who everybody knows are trying to lose games. Watching young players fight and sometimes win is way, way better.

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