DFS NBA – The Top Salary Value Plays – The Main Hornet, Kemba!
By Shaun Evans
DFS NBA – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any DFS NBA slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary.
We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the Top Value Plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel!
For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.
This is why we’re switching up this fantasy basketball article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates. Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top-tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.
Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 8 game Fantasy Basketball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel!
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Top Tier Plays
Kemba Walker vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $8,200 – Needs to score 41 fantasy points or more to exceed value (53.3 for 6.5x)
We actually have two good point guard match-ups with Damian Lillard versus New Orleans Pelicans and Kemba Walker versus the Washington Wizards. I’m sticking with Kemba Walker due to the fact that he’s coming off of a huge game versus the Houston Rockets, scoring 67.5 fantasy points. He’s averaging 43 fantasy points per game and 1.26 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 31%.
The Washington Wizards are currently giving up 50.45 fantasy points per game which is the third most in the NBA. Kemba did see the Wizards last Friday where he recorded 18 points, 6 assist, and 4 rebounds with 2 steals. Kemba is one of my favorite plays tonight and if you want to spend up for Damian Lillard, you can’t go wrong.
Ben Simmons vs. Sacramento Kings
Salary: $8,500 – Needs to score 42.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (55.25 for 6.5x)
Ben Simmons is currently questionable with a illness and didn’t participate in Thursday’s practice. If Simmons is cleared to play, he’s a great play versus this Sacramento Kings team. He just came off of a 53 fantasy point game also versus the Cleveland Cavaliers. He’s averaging 44.1 fantasy points per game and 1.29 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 22%. Butler is also questionable again and if he is ruled out, Simmons may be in the same position as he was versus the Cavaliers and gets a huge boost.
The Sacramento Kings are currently giving up 42.50 fantasy points to the shooting guard position. While the last time Simmons saw Sacramento was on December 19th, he almost recorded a triple double recording 13 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assist. Another positive sign for Simmons is that he actually becomes cheaper by $100 in a great match-up.
Andre Drummond vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $8,800 – Needs to score 44 fantasy points or more to exceed value (57.2 for 6.5x)
Andre Drummond gets the Los Angeles Lakers! How can we pass this chance up, especially with Blake Griffin not having the best run lately. Drummond is averaging 45 fantasy points per game and 1.36 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 23%. He is coming off of a bad game versus the Miami Heat, where he only scored 17.8 fantasy points in 24 minutes. That game was also a bad blowout where Detroit never had a chance.
The Lakers are running thin to close out their NBA season and Drummond should be able to exploit them inside the paint. The Lakers are currently giving up 59.51 fantasy points to opposing centers. Drummond is just like Simmons and sees a price decrease, going from $9,400 to $8,800 which we can’t ignore.
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Mid Tier Plays
Chris Paul vs. Phoenix Suns
Salary: $6,900 – Needs to score 34.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (44.85 for 6.5x)
Chris Paul is below $7k once again and he now gets to face the Phoenix Suns. Against the Golden State Warriors, Chris Paul put up 35.5 fantasy points at the $6,900 price tag also with a slightly tougher match-up. He’s averaging 38 fantasy points per game and 1.18 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 22%. Hard to pass this one up too.
The Phoenix Suns aren’t the prettiest team by any means and it’s a team to stack against on most nights. They are giving up sixth most fantasy points to opposing point guards with 49.29 fantasy points per game. With our top team, we could ultimately make a pretty stacked, balance line-up tonight with these plays.
Khris Middleton vs. Miami Heat
Salary: $6,800 – Needs to score 34 fantasy points or more to exceed value (44.2 for 6.5x)
Khris Middleton hasn’t been the best lately but he has put up back to back solid performances, scoring 32 and 39.75 fantasy points versus San Antonio and New Orleans. He now gets to fight the Miami Heat which is a tough match-up but could actually be a good one for him. Middleton is averaging 33.7 fantasy points per game and 1.08 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 24%.
The Miami Heat are currently giving up just 41.50 fantasy points to opposing small forwards. But with the minute watch on Giannis Antetokounmpo for the rest of the season, due to playoffs, Middleton does get a bump in play. So even at $6,800 and a healthy Bucks squad, Middleton can still return the value of 5x or even more.
Clint Capela vs. Phoenix Suns
Salary: $7,300 – Needs to score 36.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (47.45 for 6.5x)
Clint Capela is pretty inexpensive tonight with a great match-up versus the Phoenix Suns, just like CP3. He has now scored 35 or more fantasy points in four straight games and should continue the streak tonight. He’s averaging 39.2 fantasy points per game and 1.15 fantasy points per minute but with just a usage rate of 18%.
The Phoenix Suns, like mentioned above, are a bad team and give up the second most fantasy points to opposing centers with 61.56 fantasy points per game. Capela is averaging 34 minutes per game and if this one stays close, Capela should easily see all the opportunities in the world to exceed his value.
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Low Tier Plays
Frank Kaminsky vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $4,500 – Needs to score 22.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.25 for 6.5x)
Frank is back in our slate and has a great match-up tonight so lets get it rolling! He has scored above 20 fantasy points in four of the last five games. Like the last slate that we wrote him up on, his only game below 20 fantasy points was with 16.25 fantasy points versus this Wizards team but he only played 15 minutes. The Hornets have been using him in a heavier role lately and he should see a better outcome tonight.
The Washington Wizards are giving the most fantasy points to power forwards with 51.86 per game. Kaminsky only put up 4 points and 9 rebounds on March 8th match-up versus the Wizards but I don’t think he’ll have trouble tonight like he did then.
Dion Waiters vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Salary: $4,700 – Needs to score 23.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (30.55 for 6.5x)
Dion Waiters is coming off of a good performance versus the Detroit Pistons where he scored 31 fantasy points. He is only averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game and .83 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 20%. The one downside is that Waiters isn’t the most consistent fantasy player but when his match-up is correct, he knows how to return value.
The Milwaukee Bucks are currently giving up 41.31 fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. But the Bucks are a pretty tough team to face even with them preparing for the playoffs with “load management” designation. Waiters comes at a good price with a nice match-up tonight though.
Thomas Bryant vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $4,000 – Needs to score 20 fantasy points or more to exceed value (26 for 6.5x)
Thomas Bryant is a very, very hit and miss center but is coming off of a great match-up with another lined up for him. He just put up 40.5 fantasy points versus the Orlando Magic and now gets the Washington Wizards. He’s averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game with a 17% usage rating. But this more of a “risk” play then anything else as he is not consistent at all.
The Charlotte Hornets are currently giving up 58.05 fantasy points to opposing centers. Bryant’s shots were falling last week versus the Hornets with 80% shooting. He recorded 12 points and 2 rebounds in that match-up.
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