DraftKings NBA Picks March 15: Embiid is king of the Kings

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS – JANUARY 09: Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics looks on during the second half of the game against the Indiana Pacers at TD Garden on January 09, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Celtics defeat the Pacers 135-108. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 15: Embiid is king of the Kings

Beware the Ides of March! We have a largest night of the week so far with eight games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. We have had nice sized tournaments all week. Contrary to pop culture belief, size does matter, at least when it comes to NBA DFS. Only three players tip the scales with salaries in the five figures, but there is a strong middle tier. Who should we prioritize? Who is going to be Marcus Brutus and kill our slate?

I placed two of the four lineups yesterday thanks to huge games from Kyrie and Luka Doncic. Failed value from Brandon Knight and Horford kept me from breaking the top 2500.

grainger1 took this down with a solid 362.25 DraftKings points. He built with Westbrook and Kyrie and got massive value from Jalen Brunson, Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Marc Gasol, Bogdan, and Sexton.

By popular demand, I am switching back to the old format. As always, if you have suggestions to improve the article (besides making better picks), let me know!

If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 in free DraftKings entry tickets with your first deposit of $5 or more.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – MARCH 03: Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on March 03, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,000): Lillard is at exactly 5x value in two games with the Pelicans this year. We would like more than 5x value, but never underestimate the importance of a high floor. A Lillard fade is perfectly acceptable with other good options available, but this is still a really good matchup. I don’t think I would fade him in cash tonight.

Kemba Walker ($8,200): I still think Kemba is the best PG out there tonight. He has played Washington three times and come away with 153.25 DraftKings points. That’s over 6x value at this price point! Walker is also coming off his season high in scoring against Houston on Tuesday. He could come close to that number against Washington too.

Honorable Mention:

Chris Paul ($6,900): Paul is a very reasonable price, but what most are ignoring is that he’s not really putting up numbers beyond that price. Paul has only hit more than 5x value once in March. For whatever reason, he has cooled back off. It’s probably because the Rockets are at their best when the ball is moving, just like the Warriors. They also throw to the hot hand, just like the Warriors. That’s not indicative to one person taking over the game. I understand rostering Paul here, but he probably doesn’t have the upside you covet for GPP’s.

Elfrid Payton ($6,600): If ever there were a chalk play in the middle tier, it’s Payton. Payton has back to back triple doubles. One of those was against a good Milwaukee team. Payton has been huge with Holiday out, and is way too cheap against Portland. Their guard defense isn’t great. The is a huge spot for Payton. Forget the high ownership and just play him. I don’t know that we can afford not to.

Derrick White ($6,300): After a disappointing showing against the Bucks, White came back with 43.75 DraftKings points against Dallas. His hot streak may not be over after all! We will find out against the Knicks. This is another good spot for White, so he should easily be worth the price.

Dark Horses:

Tomas Satoransky ($5,800): Satoransky has racked up 97 DraftKings points in three games against Charlotte. Stacking the point guards in this game looks like a really good option if you can afford it. However, I’m going to use Payton with Walker if I can afford it at all. Satoransky is not a disappointing consolation price though. He should clear 6x value without much of a problem.

Kris Dunn ($5,400): Dunn went nuts last game with Zach LaVine out. If LaVine is out again, Dunn could clear 40 DraftKings points again. The Clippers are among the worst defenders of the point in the league. We saw Dunn get those numbers against Rondo. What’s he going to do to SGA?

Ish Smith ($3,900): I don’t care whether Reggie Jackson plays or not. I’m a big fan of Smith at this price regardless. He has been outplaying Jackson in his time on the court anyway. This is not a new thing. It has happened many times between last year and this year. If Reggie is out, Ish is a lock. Even if Jackson plays, I still like Ish playing 25 minutes at this price.

BRUTUS ALERT:

De’Aaron Fox: Fox has played well lately, but the Sixers punish point guards. Fox is still going to be pretty highly owned because he put up 39.25 in the first meeting in Sacramento. It’s going to be much tougher sledding in Philly.

My pick: Walker(PG), Smith(G); Walker(PG), Payton(G)

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 05: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards reacts after hitting a basket against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on December 5, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,000): Harden blitzed the Suns for 72 DraftKings points in his only game against them this year. That was without Paul, so expecting it again is unfair. With the way things are going now, if you expect anything more than 5x value out of Harden, you are probably going to be disappointed. The high floor makes him worth using, but if you think the money can be better spent elsewhere, I don’t see us really getting burned for fading him like we did when Paul was out.

Bradley Beal ($9,500): Beal has 151.5 DraftKings points in the three games against Charlotte so far. I would expect him in the 50’s again. That alone gives Beal more upside for the price than Harden. Fading Beal in this matchup on this slate feels like an unnecessary risk. Beal is one of my top plays of the night regardless of price or position.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams ($7,100): Lou was a letdown on Tuesday, but he destroyed the Bulls for 66.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I don’t think LouWill goes for a triple double again tonight, but there is enough here to like to find a way to put him in the lineup. That ceiling is very real, but the price remains low because the floor is much lower than anyone in this range. The Bulls seem to be a spot to take full advantage of the lower price.

Buddy Hield ($7,100): I wasn’t crazy about Hield last night, but Thunder Dan was, so I threw him in a lineup just in case. It’s a good thing I did. Hield had a big night last night and could be in for another. Hield had 50.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Sixers, and it makes sense. Redick can’t guard him. Don’t be shocked if Hield breaks 50 again.

C.J. McCollum ($6,800): C.J. has been nothing special against the Pelicans this year, but this time around he wont have to deal with Holiday. It also doesn’t hurt that he has 94.25 DraftKIngs points over the last two games and has only been below 5x value once in March. McCollum is on a hot streak right now, and this looks like a really good place to keep riding it.

Dark Horses:

Kelly Oubre ($5,900): The Suns keep running Oubre 30 or more minutes per game and he just keeps producing. Oubre has only been below 27 DraftKings points once since the All Star break. That gives him a really nice floor. We have also seen him top 50 DraftKings points in that time, so we have plenty of upside as well. Oubre took Houston for 38.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. If he comes close to that, that’s over 6x value.

Jeremy Lamb ($5,800): Lamb dropped 50 DraftKings points on Washington last Friday, marking the second time he’s broke 50 in the last 17 days. That kind of upside has us chasing Lamb. Lamb promises to be highly own again tonight just in case he goes off. The floor is a bit disappointing, but not to the point where he will single handedly ruin your lineup.

Ryan Arcidiacono ($3,700): Arcidiacono is really only in play if LaVine sits and even then he’s a bit of a risk. However, the bottom tier here is rather weak. Brogdon and Batum are good picks but have no real upside. You could try the revenge of Reggie Bullock on the Pistons, but we really have no reason to trust that either unless LeBron sits in the second night of a back to back. That is something worth watching.

BRUTUS ALERT:

James Harden. The matchup is almost too perfect with Phoenix, so I expect ownership to be pretty high despite the elite pricetag. What can go wrong? It feels like more could go wrong than right, honestly.

My pick: Beal(SG); Williams(SG)

LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 22: DeMar DeRozan #10 of the San Antonio Spurs before an inbound in the game against the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on October 22, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($8,500): Personally, I don’t care if LeBron sits or not. The Pistons are really tough on forwards, and small forwards in particular. A whole slew of stars have missed value against Detroit, so I find it a much better proposition to take advantage of the fact that Simmons still has SF eligibility. The Kings are awful defending the point where Simmons usually is, so run him out there with all of the other good point guards and avoid this weaker position.

DeMar DeRozan ($8,400): DeRozan has at least 47 DraftKings points in three of the last four games and in five of the last eight. As far as Spurs plays go, DDR is the safest one out there. There is ample upside here against the Knicks. DeRozan could hit 6x value here and not be that highly owned due to the good guards available at SG and Simmons at SF.

Honorable Mention:

Otto Porter ($6,700): Porter remains a force to be reckoned with for the Bulls. He has only been under 25 DraftKIngs points once as a Bull and only under 30 twice more. It’s harder to get value out of him with his price this high, but the Clippers don’t really have anyone who can guard him now. Not when they have to tangle with Markkanen too. As long as Porter is a go, use him.

Jabari Parker ($5,800): Charlotte has actually kept Parker under wraps this year, but he has still only played 50 minutes against them. The Wizards are using Parker where the Bulls didn’t and it’s working really well. Parker has at least 5x value in each of the last six games. I see no reason to jump of the wagon here.

Dark Horses:

Marvin Williams ($4,600): Williams has been a thorn in Washington’s side all year. In three meetings against the Wizards, Williams has 111.25 DraftKings points. That’s a great return on this price. Williams ravaged them for 48.25 last week, the first time facing them with their post-deadline lineup. Lock and load Marvin tonight. He will be in all of my lineups!

Landry Shamet ($4,000): Shamet is a solid part of this bench, but that’s the problem. He’s a bench player. That severely limits his upside, especially since LouWill comes off of said bench. Shamet gets the minutes, but the shots aren’t always there. Still, he will have plenty of chances against the Bulls. Shamet is a threat for 6x value or higher every time out.

Mikal Bridges ($3,700): The key to playing Bridges is that you have to be comfortable with the fact that 21.5 DraftKings points is enough (6x) from him. Bridges has enough minutes to hit that mark, and he usually does. He did the first time against Houston. However, he may not get much above that. Your lineup will reap the rewards elsewhere, not directly from Bridges.

BRUTUS ALERT:

LeBron James: It’s the second game of a back to back against a team that has put the screws on small forwards. What could go wrong? The Lakers should just save the King the embarrassment and rest him.

My pick: Williams(SF); Williams(SF)

PHOENIX, AZ – NOVEMBER 14: LaMarcus Aldridge #12 of the San Antonio Spurs during the second half of the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on November 14, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,600): I am really not comfortable paying that price for Giannis against a team that has held him to 81 DraftKings points in two games this year. Not when Aldridge has statistically the best matchup he can have tonight. The problem here is twofold: First, DeRozan torched the Knicks in the first meeting. LMA was an afterthought, and it showed. He only played 21 minutes. If this is a blowout, there’s a chance that happens again. Are you willing to take that sort of risk?

There’s a lot of glorified garbage in the top of power forward tonight. I don’t even really want to pay for LMA, let alone the rest of these. Julius Randle is the only other one to consider, but he has not hit 5x value at this price in March. Markkanen only went for 32 in his first meeting with the Clippers. Blake was a total dud against the Lakers. These are all Brutuses. Every one of them!

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($7,200): I do like this matchup more if Butler is out again, but even if he isn’t, this is a strong spot for Harris. He put up 105.5 DraftKings points in three games against the Kings while with the Clippers. His numbers in Philly have been marginally lower, but not enough to chase me off. Harris is perfectly fine for cash games, and the high floor makes him a solid GPP option as well.

Montrezl Harrell ($6,000): Harrell did struggle in the first game against the Bulls. He had all sorts of issues with Markkanen. There is a chance that happens again, but Harrell is playing enough at center than I’m willing to chase this for the price. When someone of Harrell’s ability is priced lower than he should be, I take notice no matter what the matchup says. It doesn’t always work out though.

Harrison Barnes ($5,500): I really love Bagley here, but the Kings wont push him. Bagley played just 19 minutes last night in his return, and I could see them sitting him entirely in the second of a back to back. Either way, it should mean good run for Barnes against a team that hasn’t quite figured out power forward defense yet. Barnes is a good way to save money and still get plenty of upside.

Dark Horses:

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,100): Aminu has kind of faded back to obscurity lately, but he was a beast against the Pelicans earlier this year, amassing 67.5 DraftKings points in the two games without picking up many more minutes than he currently is. Portland has changed some since those first two meetings, but Aminu still sees more than enough minutes to do significant damage at this price.

Davis Bertans ($3,300): I can see how some can mistake this as playing for a blowout. I get it, but I promise that there is a little more to it than that. Bertans has 61 DraftKings points over the last three games. His minutes are creeping up. That’s about 7x value without factoring the extra minutes Bertans could pluck if this is a blowout. This is a strong under the radar value play.

BRUTUS ALERT:

Giannis Antetokounmpo: I get it. The ownership on Giannis should always be high just because of the natural ability. He has the potential to win you a GPP. However, Giannis only has 80.75 DraftKings points in two games against Miami this year. Are we going to get 55 from him to hit 5x value? I have my doubt, especially since the Bucks are making a concerted effort not to wear him out.

My pick: Bertans(PF); Aminu(PF), Bertans(F)

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 01: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts after a 111-102 win over the Golden State Warriors at Little Caesars Arena on December 01, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,900): It’s not often that a price like this looks like a bargain, but it definitely does tonight. Embiid destroyed the Kings for 62.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. A lot of things have changed since then, but the Kings’ interior defense is not one of them. Embiid is going to decimate the Kings again. Start your build right here!

Andre Drummond ($8,800): I’m nervous about Drummond here. He only put up 36.52 DraftKings points in the first meeting, which would leave him as a Brutus. Drummond has also not played more than 30 minutes in three straight games. They were all blowouts, but are we sure this game wont be as well? I really think there’s a strong chance the Lakers sit LeBron. Even if they don’t LeBron was manhandled by the Pistons in the first meeting. On paper this looks good, but I’m still nervous as hell.

BRUTUS ALERT:

It’s gotta be Drummond. There’s so many things that can go wrong in that game. Don’t get me wrong. I wouldn’t be any less shocked if Drummond put up 60. The high volatility makes him a prime candidate to murder your takedown. Of course, he could have the exact opposite effect.

My pick: Embiid(C), Portis(F), Kaminsky(UTIL); Embiid(C), Portis(UTIL)

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