FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Friday, 3/15 – Play Dame and Embiid
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Friday, 3/15
Welcome back to the Friday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.
My goal when I created the Breakdown was to make this an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
Tonight we have a nice 8-game slate on tap and only two games with double-digit spreads (Houston-Phoenix and San Antonio-New York both 13 point spreads). There are a few plays we might use from those games, but there are 6 other games we can target easily and a bunch of good plays to use in both cash and GPP contests tonight.
As the NBA season winds down, I would encourage you to really take these first look articles with a grain of salt.
I do my best to try to anticipate what injuries and rest situations we might encounter each night, but in the final month of the season we are going to see a lot of players sit out and we aren’t always going to know who it will be until later in the evening. Just be flexible and be ready to pivot to some of your other favorite plays in your lineups.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.
Joel Embiid (10900)
I’m not overthinking this one. As much as Andre Drummond is a solid play for a few hundred less against the Lakers, Embiid is by far the best play at his position (and possibly on the entire slate) against the Kings.
Sacto has struggled against big men all season and the Sixers have one of the highest totals on the board. If Simmons or Butler end up missing tonight’s game that just means even more usage for “The Process.” Lock him in!
Damian Lillard (9900)
I know, like Embiid, he’s the most expensive player at his position tonight. But, I still love Lillard in this pace up spot against the Pelicans. The Sixers and Blazers are both being massively paced up tonight and have huge implied totals and therefore I am locking their two stars into my cash games and going from there.
Jeremy Lamb (6400)
There’s a number of mid-range plays I like tonight, but Lamb might be my favorite. He’s playing big minutes even though he’s coming off the bench in a 6th man role now, and the match-up here is great for Charlotte against the defensively challenged Wizards. Lamb just dropped 51 FD points against them a week ago and is finishing games for the Hornets, which is what really matters.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays
For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.
Bradley Beal (10800)
If you read this column daily, you know I love using Beal in the second half of the season. I had to jump off him last game as his priced went over 11k and his matchup was less appealing. But I am getting right back on him tonight in a game that could go over its 232 total. Beal does it all for the Wizards and plays 40 minutes a game. He has upside even at this price.
Bobby Portis (6900)
Portis burned me the other night but I am not going to let recency bias get in the way of using him tonight. I do think he’s better suited for GPPs based on the fact that we’ve seen his minutes get yanked around a little, but you can’t deny that he’s in a great spot tonight. He posted 40 FD points against Charlotte last week and 48 against them as a member of Bulls before being traded.
Clint Capela (8300)
If you can’t afford Embiid, then consider Capela tonight. He’s been playing really well and has an excellent matchup against the Suns, a team I pick on with centers often and with great success. I’d rather get my Houston exposure by using Capela tonight than paying for Harden or CP3.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.
Frank Kaminsky (4200) and Willy Hernangomez (3600)
Frank the Tank and Willy are both in play tonight due to the fact that Cody Zeller remains out. Kaminsky was very disappointing as mega chalk last game but his price actually went down and tonight’s match-up is much better. Hernangomez seems to have won the battle with Biyombo for the center minutes and is almost min-price.
Alex Caruso (3600)
Don’t close this article! I know you probably don’t know who Caruso is and I agree he definitely doesn’t look like any NBA player in any way, but he’s almost minimum price and has seen over 25 minutes several times lately for the Lakers.
JaMychal Green (3800)
He started last game for the injured Gallinari, who is still questionable tonight, and played well in 32 minutes. Even if he gets moved back to the bench he can hit value at this price in 20 minutes.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings
What some players find really helpful are position rankings. I will rank my favorite players at each position based on their upside and point-per-dollar viability for cash and GPP. Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” but it’s not an exhaustive list of my player pool by any means.
Point Guard
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night
Charlotte (+3.5) @ Washington (232 total)
There are a couple of other games with higher totals tonight, but this game has the perfect combination of what we are looking for – a high total, tight spread, and a bunch of players who we can fit into a lineup without having to punt that often.
I’d be starting this stack with Kemba Walker (9200) on the Charlotte side as he’s the player with the highest ceiling and the most likely to put up a huge number for the Hornets. His usage is still massive at 30% and he has 6-7x upside even at this price.
Jeremy Lamb and Nicolas Batum (6000) are both solid mid-tier options to add to this Charlotte stack and I already mentioned both Kaminsky and Hernagomez for value. My favorite combo is likely going to be Walker-Lamb-Kaminsky.
For Washington, I will start with Bradley Beal as my main piece coming back. Tomas Satoranksy is in play, too, however, he’s finally starting to get priced up as he is nearly 7k now. My favorite Wizards to finish off this stack continue to be Jabari Parker (5800) and Bobby Portis, as they are the most likely to get up a bunch of shots and both have solid FPPM production.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.
I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
Today’s sample lineup is a cash lineup. I have my cash core in there as well as some solid mid-tier plays and a few punts like Kaminsky and Caruso to make it fit. There could be a number of different paths to the finish line today, don’t get too locked into one build until we get all this injury news in today.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are always pivots that need to be made as the slate unfolds during the day!
PG: Damian Lillard (9900
PG: Alex Caruso (3600)
SG: Jeremy Lamb (6400)
SG: Buddy Hield (6800)
SF: Harrison Barnes (5500)
SF: Jabari Parker (5800)
PF: Tobias Harris (6900)
PF: Frank Kaminsky (4200)
C: Joel Embiid (10900)
Next. NBA DFS Picks & Pivots March 15th. dark
I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter. And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests