Fantasy Fallout of NFL Free Agency Frenzy

The first wave of NFL Free Agency is just about wrapped up and it’s time to take our initial look at what it means for the upcoming fantasy football season!

It may have been filled with some anticlimactic endings and a few surprises, but the NFL has seen the normal shakeup around this time of year through NFL Free Agency and some trades. While we do still have the draft and training camp before we get a real handle on the 2019 season, this is a good time of the league year to take stock of where teams are at. We can start to figure out what direction teams are heading because fantasy football(especially dynasty leagues) is a year round hobby. We’re really going to just focus on the offensive side of the ball for now, so let’s take a look by division what’s happened so far while keeping this excellent stat in mind –

AFC East

New England Patriots 

Key Additions – None 

Yes, they took a flyer on Bruce Ellington and re-signed Phillip Dorsett, but the Patriots are about the last team on the list to make big splashes. Realistically, it just doesn’t matter for them. They are the Terminator and they will crush any and all football dreams you have. You will get nothing and they will get everything. Just acquiesce and submit to the will of the Patriots before you are forced to.

In seriousness, their fantasy outlook hasn’t changed much. It hinges on the future of Rob Gronkowski quite a bit, as far as their plan in the draft and the offense they run next year. Even if Gronkowski comes back, it’s tough to buy into Gronk as a top five tight end option after last season. He had his worst season of his career where he played double-digit games. I expect them to continue to ride their running back stable led by Sony Michel and feed Julian Edelman the football(even though he’s not a Hall of Famer) to a WR2 finish in PPR settings.

Buffalo Bills

Key Additions – WR’s Cole Beasley, John Brown, Andre Roberts, RB Frank Gore, TE Tyler Kroft 

I still wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bills add a weapon early in the draft for second year quarterback Josh Allen, but they did try to make the offense better. The John Brown fit is interesting because he is a deep threat that Allen could in theory take advantage as Allen extends plays and scrambles around. On passes over 20 yards in 2018, Allen only went 18 for 63 but he did rack up 580 of his 2,074 passing yards in addition to seven of his 10 touchdowns. Brown adds an interesting speed element to the passing game and the threat of Allen rushing could put strain on the coverage.

The hope would be Beasley could be a player to lean on in the short area passing, but that’s not something I’m too interested in for fantasy. Kroft could be a red zone target for Allen that is a name to file away as a possible DFS flyer but I don’t believe he emerges as a real option for seasonal. Gore is a fun player to root for and insurance for LeSean McCoy, and likely nothing more. The next step for Allen is his success(or lack thereof) under pressure. Per Pro Football Focus, Allen was under pressure on 113 attempts, completing a putrid 28.3 percent. He personally makes up for it with his rushing upside but any type of consistency or ceiling from Buffalo is capped until he gets that facet figured out.

Miami Dolphins

Key Additions – None

Sorry, but I don’t believe tight end Dwayne Allen rates as a Key Addition. They still don’t even seem to be set on Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback for the year, so it’s truly too early to tell how to gauge Miami for fantasy.

New York Jets 

Key Additions – RB Le’Veon Bell, WRs Josh Bellamy and Jamison Crowder, OL Kelechi Osemele

You may have heard the Bell has a new home and if you want to hear every single person on twitter debate his finances, be my guest. I’m torn here because there’s not a single doubt that Bell was(and very possibly still is) one of the top five most talented backs in the NFL. There is the obvious question of how does he play after a year off but the bigger issue comes down to the offense he’s in now. No disrespect to the Jets, but they’re not the Steelers offense that Bell last played in. The offensive line isn’t as good, the quarterback play isn’t near the same with Sam Darnold to Ben Roethlisberger and the receiving corps isn’t as good. I tend to think Bell slides in as a top 12 back just by volume alone, but I don’t think I’d view him as top five until we see the fit in early August.

If Jamison Crowder is healthy, I am very interested in him this upcoming year. He was an excellent slot receiver in Washington and we saw how much Darnold loved targeting Quincy Enunwa in the slot. Assuming Darnold takes a step forward, that should mean he expands and gets Robby Anderson more involved. However, if he plays 14-16 games I could easily see Crowder leading the Jets in receptions and targets. He’s really a name that I’d be willing to buy low in dynasty and take the gamble. Bellamy is probably just a depth player and won’t be too involved.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers 

Key Additions – WR Donte Moncrief

If you wanted to see what a disaster of an offseason looked like and can’t stomach being a Giants fan, take a look at my Steelers. They got completely clowned by their best player who isn’t a quarterback, the drama and headlines have so far surpassed their on-field play that it’s not even mentioned how badly they collapsed at the end of the year and former role players are talking smack about the team in press conferences. Other than that, things are going great.

Moncrief is probably going to be a touchdown or bust player, likely DFS only in good matchups. He, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Vance McDonald and James Washington better be ready to pick up a lot of slack in the passing game. James Conner should enter the year as the lead back, but keep Jaylen Samuels in your minds. He’s a very interesting player that could be in the handcuff discussion and showed a little bit in limited action last season.

Cleveland Browns 

Key Additions – WR Odell Beckham Jr

I feel disloyal, but I loved Baker Mayfield since college and I really wish he hadn’t gone to a team within my division. Now I REALLY wish that wasn’t the case because Mayfield is the leader of an offense that could be one of the best in the league. Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson and possibly Kareem Hunt all join newly acquired Odell Beckham as weapons for Mayfield this season. The big question is how do we gauge Beckham’s fantasy value now?

It’s not the easiest question because it seems clear that he’s playing with the best quarterback of his career. The flip side is there is so much talent, Beckham might not see the same number of targets in Cleveland. He’s seen an average of 11.1 targets per game through his career but even if that drops, the strain the surrounding talent puts on a defense could make it easier on Beckham(relatively speaking). Cleveland might be more run oriented than people will realize, but Beckham is in the mix for a top three receiver while the rest of the offense stays close to their production levels of this past season. Njoku is the one player that could really leap over what he did last year just with natural growth and Beckham opening up even more space.

Cincinnati Bengals 

Key Additions – None 

The Bengals have yet to bring in anything of note, but hopefully get back WR A.J. Green and RB Joe Mixon healthy next year as high-end fantasy talents for the upcoming season.

Baltimore Ravens 

Key Additions – Mark Ingram, RB 

The Ravens have been quiet on the offensive side of the ball but the addition they did make could prove to be one of the most underrated backs in fantasy. Baltimore finished first in rushing attempts and second in rushing yards last year in part because they broke in rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. What’s super interesting for Ingram is even though he’s 30 years old, he’s only accumulated a hair over 1,600 touches throughout his career. The high water mark in carries is 230 and he seems locked into at least 250 in a power running scheme. Baltimore has yet to really add to their passing game, leading me to believe the plan is to be run heavy, defense first team. Ingram could sneak into the back-end of RB1 status this season.

AFC South

Houston Texans 

Key Additions – None 

The Texans attacked the defensive side of the ball with their efforts so far, which is fine and good. However, did anyone tell them they have a franchise quarterback who has taken 81(!!!) sacks in 23 career games? That’s not even counting quarterback hits, that’s just sacks. I cannot understand why they haven’t shored up their offensive line to this point and frankly makes me a little concerned for Watson. Get this man some protection Houston before you get stuck with Brandon Weeden as a starter.

Indianapolis Colts 

Key Additions – WR Devin Funchess

This signing got its share of venom on Twitter and the like, but I really don’t hate it. Sure, $13 million for Funchess seems like an awful lot but the Colts have cap space for days. He provides a big target for quarterback Andrew Luck who has actually produced touchdowns at a nice rate so far. He’s only been a starter in 40 career games and does have 21 touchdowns to his name. That’s with Cam Newton in the red zone, scoring plenty of close range touchdowns with his legs. I can see using a cheap Funchess multiple times this season in DFS.

Tennessee Titans 

Key Additions – OG Rodger Saffold, WR Adam Humphries

The Titans have a bunch of hogs on their offensive line, and I mean that in a nice way. If the starting five stay together through most of the season, they could really bully some teams up front for Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. I’m still not buying Henry off his crazy finish in 2018, but that could change as we get closer to the season. Hopefully they can keep quarterback Marcus Mariota upright because he was injured often again last year. This is a make or break season and bringing in Adam Humphries as a slot receiver should help.

Humphries is coming off his best season with 70+ receptions, 800+ yards and five touchdowns. In a crowded Tampa Bay passing game with Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard, that’s fairly impressive. Now he and Corey Davis will be the lead dogs and I think Humphries could be in the conversation for a weekly flex option. Slot receivers can really rack up receptions and of the 847 snaps Humphries played last year, 653 came in the slot. The opportunity will be there for him this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars 

Key Additions – QB Nick Foles

I’m still wondering what other NFL team was willing to come close to what Foles got from the Jaguars money-wise, but that’s another discussion. The big question is how will things go leaving an offensive minded Philadelphia Eagles coaching staff to Doug Marrone and John DeFilippo? AS far as stats go, Defilippo’s offense was fine for fantasy last year in Minnesota. Through his 14 weeks, Kirk Cousins was QB11 and his receivers were both in the top 15. Now, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen aren’t walking into Jacksonville anytime soon, but Foles can likely be a streamer while leaning on Leonard Fournette and the running game. I just wouldn’t expect many of the same big games he had as an Eagle. We’ll have to take a wait and see approach with Marquise Lee, D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole. Training camp reports that we can trust will be vital.

AFC West

Denver Broncos 

Key Additions – OT Ju’Wuan James, QB Joe Flacco 

If it wasn’t for Peyton Manning and the fact that John Elway‘s name is John Elway, he’d likely be out of a job by now. Past Manning, no other team has screwed up the most important position in sports quite like Elway has. After Manning retired in 2015, Denver has gone through Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler and Case Keenum. That doesn’t even account for a player like Chad Kelly or figure in the assets wasted. Now they bring in Flacco who was unseated by a rookie to reignite the passing game. Good luck with that. Emmanuel Sanders is the only redraft receiver that I’d be slightly interested in, with Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton as flyers in deep league dynasty settings.

The running game is going to garner plenty of attention after the hottest player in drafts last year Royce Freeman ceded the lead role to Phillip Lindsay. I’d be lying if I said I knew what this season held for them, but I would suspect that Lindsay holds the edge heading into camp and they treat it as they did last year. Freeman is the hammer back and Lindsay is more of the leader.

Los Angeles Chargers 

Key Additions – None 

For a team that finished tied for sixth in points per game and boasts quarterback Philip Rivers, running back Melvin Gordon, receivers Keenan Allen and an emerging Mike Williams along with a returning Hunter Henry at tight end, they didn’t need to do much.

Kansas City Chiefs 

Key Additions – RB Carlos Hyde 

There were rumors of the Chiefs inquiring about Antonio Brown, which would have lit the league on fire. Fortunately for everyone who’s not a Kansas City fan, that didn’t happen. I listed Hyde as a key addition not for what I think he does, but for what I believe it signals. That is the Chiefs mostly trusting Damien Williams. In just three games as a starter, Williams racked up over 400 total yards and six touchdowns. He then proceeded to add on 260 yards and four touchdowns in two playoff games. With quarterback Patrick Mahomes in place and receivers Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and tight end Travis Kelce terrorizing defenses, the running back can be a forgotten man. If the Chiefs don’t draft a back early and clearly make it the Damien Williams show, I’m really going to be interested next year as a top 12 back.

Oakland Raiders 

Key Additions – OT Trent Brown, WRs Tyrell Williams and Antonio Brown 

I’m going to try to stick to fantasy in one second because if I see one more inane take about how Antonio Brown was justified for his antics since Week 17 because Ben Roethlisberger is a jerk, I might scream. Say what you want and most of it could be accurate about him, but Roethlisberger played Week 17. Brown didn’t. Everyone from Pittsburgh deserves blame, but one player seems to skate despite bailing on his team. OK, now it’s out of my system.

The fit with Derek Carr could be a challenging one for both Brown and Williams. One of the more glaring stats to me is Carr has never finished above league average in yards per attempt. The closest he got was 2015 when he finished 18th at 7.0 yards per attempt. Per Next Gen Stats from the NFL, Williams is a fantastic deep ball receiver.

The question is can Carr get him the ball? I wouldn’t bank on it. With Williams likely to be waiver fodder, we turn our attention to Brown. Despite acting like a crazy person for weeks, there’s no player that outworks Brown. He desperately wants his stats, which is all we’re after for fantasy. I just really question what happens if Carr can’t hold up his end and Jon Gruden can’t figure things out, on and off the field. Through Gruden’s career, his WR1 has an average finish of WR17. Given the questions at quarterback, it’s fair to wonder if Brown holds as a top 10 receiver this season. I think he does but just barely.

NFC East

New York Giants 

Key Additions – WR Golden Tate, OL Kevin Zeitler

Man, do I feel for the Giants fans out there right now. This is a franchise utterly devoid of any plan. If you’re contending, you don’t trade away one of the best players in football for pennies on the dollar. If you’re rebuilding, you don’t sign a 30-year-old slot receiver to a big money deal when you have a younger version in Sterling Shepard. Yet, here the Giants are. Tight end Evan Engram looks like he could be the biggest beneficiary in the passing game as he’s averaged over 12 yards per reception and caught six touchdowns in 11 games without Beckham. I’d be treating him as a top eight tight end and hoping Eli Manning doesn’t sabotage even that.

Saquon Barkley better eat his Wheaties this offseason because he’s going to get every possible touch he can handle and see 8 man boxes in his sleep. As Yahoo’s Matt Harmon has pointed out on multiple occasions, there are times when the terrible offense just outweighs all the talent a running back might have. I thin that’s sort of where we’re at with Barkley The factors out of his control are so poor, he could finish more towards the 15-20 range instead of the 1-5 range we all know he should be in. He’s a player I’m very cautious with right now.

Philadelphia Eagles 

Key Additions – WR DeSean Jackson

It’s a happy reunion in Philly with Jackson back for his second turn as an Eagle. He really fills a nice role alongside Alshon Jeffery and (presumably) Nelson Agholor. It benefits everyone as Agholor can work the slot provided Philly holds him, Jackson is still a nice deep threat and Jeffery will see some slight different coverage. It remains to be seen what Philly does at the running back position, with just Wendell Smallwood, Darren Sproles, Josh Adams and Corey Clement as current options. Also, can the passing game feed the three receivers and tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert? If all those receiving options are on the offense, someone will draw the short stick. This offense is still a little murky for now.

Dallas Cowboys 

Key Additions – WR Amari Cooper 

I’m still listing Cooper because I’m cautiously optimistic for his prospects this upcoming season. Trades in the middle of the year are tougher than people realize. Learning a new offense on the fly isn’t easy at all, but we saw flashes of big time chemistry between Cooper and quarterback Dan Prescott. We also saw the all too familiar games where Cooper went ghost. He did see almost nine targets a game, which is highly encouraging. The disappearing acts really need to stop this season for Cooper to take the next step as a fantasy asset and a full offseason should help.

I wanted to be excited for Michael Gallup as a secondary option in the offense with Cole Beasley and his 87 targets missing, but Jason Witten came back. I have a bad feeling they’re planning on shoe-horning him into a significant role in the offense, which hampers everything. Hopefully Witten is back in a very limited role.

Washington Redskins 

Key Additions – QB Case Keenum, RB Adrian Peterson

Keenum is steady, but has potentially an even worse receiving corps than he did in Denver and is on his third team in three seasons. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for fantasy success. I list Peterson because the contract isn’t cheap. I do wonder if this impacts Derrius Guice or tells us recovery still is a question mark. Guice tore his ACL in the preseason but also had three additional surgeries after that for infections. This contract for an aging Peterson is at least notable. Maybe Washington still thinks the jury is out for Guice, which would be a real shame. This offense needs some work before its super fantasy relevant.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 

Key Additions – OL Billy Turner

The Packers waded into the free agency pool, which is a different approach for what they normally do. They just flexed their financial muscles on the defensive side of the ball, so for now it’s sort of status quo for the offense. I do expect a big year for Aaron Rodgers. The Mike McCarthy issue is in the rear view and Rodgers will enter the season healthy. You likely won’t get a big discount because it’s still Aaron Rodgers, but I might be more willing to draft him than usual.

Chicago Bears 

Key Additions – WR Cordarrelle Patterson, RB Mike Davis

I don’t expect Patterson to suddenly blossom into anything usable for fantasy as a receiver but the return game could be fun with he and running back Tarik Cohen returning kicks. That could be an interesting bonus to taking the Bears D/ST this season. The expectation is for current running back Jordan Howard to be traded, which makes Davis a name to know. If Howard is out of the picture, that’s 250 rush attempts and nine touchdowns out the door. While Cohen might get a little more than his 99 attempts last year, Howard finished as the RB20 in both standard and PPR formats. I’d be quite interested in Davis if that role is his this year.

Minnesota Vikings 

Key Additions – None 

The Vikings have stayed quiet so far, which isn’t the biggest surprise. They have two excellent receivers in Diggs and Thielen, a solid quarterback in Kirk Cousins, and now Dalvin Cook is more than a full year removed from ACL surgery and Latavius Murray is in New Orleans. Given health, Cook should be an easy top 10 back this season while Cousins and his receivers maintain their status in the top 12 of their positions.

Detroit Lions 

Key Additions – WR Danny Amendola, TE Jesse James

I’m not sure either player moves the needle for fantasy. James is a blocking first tight end with 120 receptions in four seasons. Amendola is the poor man’s Golden Tate, but this receiving corps should be led by Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Hopefully quarterback Matthew Stafford can bring them some consistency and running back Kerryon Johnson fulfills the promise he showed in his rookie season to an RB2 finish.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Key Additions – None 

I was tempted to put Bruce Arians here as the new head coach, but what’s interesting is the Buccaneers already ran a deep passing game offense last season. Arians is known for his vertical attack but I don’t think that’s a dramatic shift for the Bucs. What is fun is they just had 179 targets leave between Humphries and Jackson. That just means more passes towards Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin. Be ready for the constant(though not undeserved) Godwin hype all summer. He has a history of producing without Jackson in the lineup.

People are already citing Arians lack of tight end usage as a knock against Howard but I’m not buying it. When he had Heath Miller in Pittsburgh, Miller finished as the TE8, 15 and 9. Miller only saw more receiving yards than he did in 2009 once more in his career. Arians uses what he has and he’s never had a weapon like Howard. I’m buying any part of the passing offense I can get. Running back will need to be decided as rookie Ronald Jones showed little last year and Peyton Barber is just an average back.

Atlanta Falcons 

Key Additions – OL Jamon Brown and James Carpenter

The Falcons beefed up their offensive line, but have a pretty stable group that didn’t need a lot of outside help. Given the injury history of running back Devonta Freeman, I want a piece of Ito Smith in dynasty and he’ll be a name to know coming into draft season. I’d like to see Calvin Ridley overtake Mohamed Sano as the number two receiver behind Julio Jones, but time will tell. It’s very early, but Matt Ryan going as the QB13 in ADP after a QB2 finish and numbers that rivaled his MVP season doesn’t make sense.

New Orleans Saints 

Key Additions – RB Latavius Murray

Murray will presumably step into the “Mark Ingram” role but I’m begging the Saints – unleash Alvin Kamara for 16 games. I’m not saying put 30 touches a game on him, but make him the clear number one back. He’s just too talented and I think the drop off between Ingram and Murray is significant enough to make this dream happen. If he got enough touches, he could flirt with the elusive 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving benchmark. We’ll see what coach Sean Payton says this offseason. Oh, have fun with the cap number you’re racking up for Drew Brees at some point, Saints. It’s up over $40 million next year.

Carolina Panthers 

Key Additions – C Matt Paradis

Losing receiver Devin Funchess is a nice boost for second year receiver D.J. Moore, and this could be the breakout season. He will undoubtedly be a popular sleeper, to the point where he’s not sleeping anymore. The rookie was electric with the ball in his hands last year and should continue to gain opportunity. Draft RB Christian McCaffrey. He’s good at playing football. The biggest question in reality is quarterback Cam Newton. He underwent shoulder surgery this offseason and the recovery will be closely monitored. That would have potential to derail this team in a big way.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals 

Key Additions – None 

The biggest story with Arizona and head coach Kliff Kingsbury is whether they actually draft Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray at number one overall. That would mean cutting bait on Josh Rosen, who they traded up for last year but it could happen. It’s not the fairest thing to Rosen, in reality. What was he supposed to do with the worst offensive line in football, a coordinator who got fired before the mid-way point of the year and lack of talent around him? Running back David Johnson is a floor RB2 and receiver Larry Fitzgerald could be a flex. Past that, it looks grim for the Cards again.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Seattle Seahawks

Key Additions – OL D.J. Fluker and Mike Iupati

The Seahawks seem content to just pay quarterback Russell Wilson and not give him many passing game weapons. Receiver Tyler Lockett is a weekly flex option with his playmaking ability but remember that Seattle finished second in rushing attempts last year. It’s not ideal to buy pieces of that kind of passing game. For their sake, they had better hope Rashaad Penny shows up in a big way. Taking him in the first round to see Chris Carson lead the backfield in 2018 was made fun of a whole lot last year, and rightly so. Iupati continues his quest to play for every team in the NFC West but I’m not a huge fan of this offense as we stand. Even Wilson was buoyed by a 8.2 percent touchdown rate, over two percent higher than his career average. That screams regression if the Seahawks run the same offense.

San Francisco 49ers 

Key Additions – RB Tevin Coleman

The good news is the Handsome One, Jimmy Garoppolo should be back under center this season after a torn ACL. Since the 49ers didn’t add a receiver(yet), I’m loving Dante Pettis. The rookie from Washington flashed some serious route running skills and was a smooth operator on the field. He and Garoppolo should get along nicely and since he didn’t even finish as a top 50 receiver in 1/2 PPR, Pettis might go a little under the radar.

The bad news is the running back stable looks like a total nightmare. Coleman joins Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon as candidates for carries. If all four make the team, that’s not going to be fun. It makes sense for the 49ers considering the injury history of all these players to have backups on top of backups, but how we can trust anyone for fantasy at this juncture is beyond me. Maybe some factor changes over the summer.

Los Angeles Rams 

Key Additions – None 

The biggest storyline on the offensive side of the ball is the knee of Todd Gurley. After a befuddling end of the year that led to him basically being benched in the NFC championship game and not playing enough in the Super Bowl, it was reported Gurley could be suffering from arthritis in the knee. The Rams brought back C.J. Anderson, who was fantastic down the stretch but that definitely clouds the outcomes for Gurley. He’s almost certainly a top eight back at the moment, but it’s a story that needs followed intensely through the summer into camp. Anderson is going to be the most popular handcuff in fantasy by a long shot in drafts.

Is there anyone that will be happier to see receiver Cooper Kupp back from a torn ACL than quarterback Jared Goff? After Kupp went down, Goff had a 10/6 touchdown to interception ratio(eight of those touchdowns came against Kansas City in the Monday Night Madness game and San Francisco in Week 17? and was held under 225 yards passing in four of six. Things didn’t get any better in the playoffs, either. Three games yielded one touchdown, two interceptions and a measly 712 yards. Goff will be looking to prove those numbers were a fluke and he can be a reliable fantasy quarterback this year. It looked like that question was answered for the first 12 weeks of last year but perhaps not quite yet.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest Fantasy Football and DFS news and analysis each and every day!