DraftKings NBA Early Picks March 17: Trust the Freaking Process!

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 12: Elfrid Payton #2 of the Orlando Magic reacts after getting fouled in the first half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena on January 12, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Early Picks March 17: Trust the Freaking Process!

We are all Irish for a day, right? There are eight games, but only three of those make up the early DraftKings NBA tournament. The noon eastern one is lopped off in showdown, and there are four for the main slate, but we may all be too full of green beer and corned beef by that time.

All five of my lineups were over 277 DraftKings points, but with the money lineup at 306.75, only one topped that. Gobert came through, but C.J. Miles leaving early hurt. A poor game from the other C.J. and a subpar game from Bogdan didn’t help either.

deez516 took this down with 397.75 DraftKings points. He built with Beal, Booker, Conley and another triple double from Elfrid Payton and got massive value out of Oubre, Josh Jackson, Maxi Kleber, and Darius Miller.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN – JANUARY 17: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles the ball against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on January 17, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

You have the choice between Kemba Walker and Ben Simmons for top billing at the point today. Both are great options and both have bad matchups. Kemba has averaged 42.3 DraftKings points per game in three meeting with Miami, so he is priced right at 5x value.

Simmons has only played one game against the Bucks this year, putting up 51.75 DraftKings points. One thing that can’t be ignored is how badly teams have been torching Bledsoe lately. Malcolm Brodgon is still out as well, so this could be a disaster for the Bucks trying to defend Simmons. I like Kemba in cash games, but Simmons’ upside may be too much to pass up on in any format.

Honorable Mention:

If Kyle Lowry is able to play, this is a really good matchup against Detroit. Lowry has 86 DraftKings points in two games against the Pistons this year. The Raptors last played on Thursday, and Lowry missed that game. If he’s a full go here, he could wind up being the best value at the position.

Eric Bledsoe had a solid 37.25 DraftKings points against the Sixers the first time out, but how are we supposed to play that when Justise Winslow is $200 cheaper and on a tear right now? Winslow bruised his thigh while roughing up the Bucks on Friday. If he’s able to go without limitations, it’s hard to choose Bledsoe over him.

Dark Horses:

There is no small part of me that wants to ignore all Detroit guards against Toronto. However, Reggie Jackson went nuts last game and Ish Smith is still a 5x value producer at worst. They are both cheap enough to use for salary relief, and if Lowry is limited or out, they gain a ton of value.

The Heat are only playing Goran Dragic around 20 minutes a game right now, and that likely wont change for a while. He’s a big risk with that few minutes, but Dragic is also the best talent in the lower tier. However, if Lowry sits again, forget Dragic and use Jeremy Lin.

My pick: Jackson(PG)

BOSTON, MA – APRIL 28: Khris Middleton #22 of the Milwaukee Bucks looks on during the first quarter against the Boston Celtics in Game Seven in Round One of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden on April 28, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jimmy Butler was a non factor in his only game against the Bucks this year, but he has been a force for the Sixers for much of the last month. Butler has at least 5x value in seven of the ten games he has played in that span. With Brogdon out, it’s conceivable he could fare pretty well here, although Middleton is no pushover.

Speaking of Middleton, he put up 38.5 DraftKings points on Philly the first time around, so I can see him being a factor here as well. His production has ticked upward with Brodgon out. Even though this isn’t a great matchup, Middleton’s price hasn’t really adjusted yet. He’s worth the price.

Honorable Mention:

On paper, this looks like a good matchup for Jeremy Lamb, but he has yet to hit value in any of the three games against Miami this year. You can say the same for Josh Richardson, but his average against the Hornets in three games is under 20 DraftKings points per game. I would stay away from both of them here. They could kill your entry.

J.J. Redick was a force against the Bucks the first time around. He put up 30.5 DraftKings points. Due to his shooting ability, Redick is always a threat to surpass 6x value. For the same reason, he’s always a threat to get you less than 4x value.

Dark Horses:

If Dwyane Wade‘s hip isn’t giving him too much trouble, I want him out there against Charlotte. Wade has averaged 28.8 DraftKings points against the Hornets in the first three meetings this year. At his price, that’s almost 7x value! If Wade is out though, Dion Waiters is a nice pivot with about the same upside.

Luke Kennard has been horribly inconsistent lately. Maybe it has something to do with the strong play of Ish Smith. Maybe it’s the play of Wayne Ellington. Maybe it’s both. With the way this is trending, I would use Ellington over Kennard. Not only is he cheaper, but Ellington has been playing more minutes. Kennard is a beast if he gets hot, but that doesn’t happen all that often.

My pick: Wade(SG), Ellington(G)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 13: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors runs down the floor in the first half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena on January 13, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

On paper this is a rough matchup because Detroit has allowed the fewest fantasy points to small forwards this year. However, Kawhi Leonard put up 46.25 on Detroit the first time around, and could go even higher if Lowry is out. Leonard’s price is very reasonable for what he is capable of. Don’t dismiss him just because of the tough matchup. Kawhi has actually thrived in games like that this year.

Tobias Harris racked up 41.75 DraftKings points in the first game against the Bucks. The Bucks still have problems at forward, so Harris looks like a very good spot to save some money here. $7,200 looks cheap, but then again, Philly has a lot of mouths to feed.

Honorable Mention:

Nicolas Batum is a walking 5x value ticket. He put up 27.75 DraftKings points on this Heat team 11 days ago, and should be right there again. In fact, that’s his lowest total since that game. If you’re wondering where to turn since the best cash game staple is out, Batum is a very suitable replacement.

Marvin Williams was a bust on Friday, and he could be here again. Williams has had little to no success against the Heat this year. There are better Hornets to attack with today. I promise.

Dark Horses:

The Raptors may be without the services of Danny Green, and if they are, I would strongly consider Norman Powell here. He has been playing well off the bench and in spot starts when Toronto manages Kawhi’s load. The matchup says this isn’t a good one, but if Powell is filling in for Green at the two, it looks a whole lot better.

Miles Bridges is a huge risk, but he has the kind of per minute upside that you want to chase in GPP’s. Bridges put up 13.75 DraftKings points in only 13 minutes against Washington. I would like Bridges a lot more if this game were a blowout. That doesn’t look likely, so the chances that Bridges gets more than 20 minutes are very slim.

My pick: Batum(SF)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 13: Pascal Siakam #43 of the Toronto Raptors celebrates in the second half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena on January 13, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Can a guy break the slate at over 50% ownership? If so, Giannis will do it. Giannis destroyed Philly for 81.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I know the Bucks are trying to handle his load, but this is a very real chance to make a statement for next month and get inside Philly’s head all at the same time. I expect Giannis to be out in full force for as long as it takes today.

Honorable Mention:

Blake Griffin has been a complete dud lately, but he has managed to put up 97.75 DraftKings points on Siakam in two games. At this price, that makes Blake a strong bargain. The bad news is that Griffin hasn’t topped 5x value even at this price since March 10th. That is the only time he’s reached that threshold in the last five games, and there have been some good matchups in there too.

It’s much safer to just run with Pascal Siakam instead. Siakam has 71.5 DraftKings points on Griffin this year, and he doesn’t have the albatross of a horrid slump around his neck. In fact, Siakam has topped 5x value in eight of the last ten and has gone over 6x in four of those. I’m rolling with Siakam in all formats.

Dark Horses:

This looks like a place for Kelly Olynyk to start again. If he does, I love the price and the upside here. Olynyk has averaged 29.8 DraftKings points in 27 minutes per game against Charlotte this year. That’s 6x value on average!

I understand the allure of Nikola Mirotic here, but he has yet to really hit a groove with the Bucks. Besides, it’s Ersan Ilyasova revenge day! Ilyasova has been a solid value pick anyway. If you play narratives, he’s a great way to save money.

My pick: Antetokounmpo(PF)

BARCELONA, SPAIN – MAY 06: Marc Gasol, NBA star is seen in the stands prior to the La Liga match between Barcelona and Real Madrid at Camp Nou on May 6, 2018 in Barcelona, Spain. (Photo by Alex Caparros/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Forget that Milwaukee is statistically strong against centers. Joel Embiid doesn’t care. He ravaged them for 70.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Embiid has not been under 5x value since February 8th. He’s about as safe as they come.

Andre Drummond has struggled against Toronto this year. I want nothing to do with this Detroit front here. Toronto should dominate the middle in this game. Spend your money elsewhere. The prices on Griffin and Drummond are fool’s gold.