FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday, 3/18 – Gobert or Go Home

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday, 3/18

Welcome back to the Monday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

My goal when I created the Breakdown was to make this an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

I hope you had a fun and not too drunken St. Patrick’s Day, and if you’re celebrating tonight, enjoy a green beer for me. This is such a fun time of year to be a sports fan with the NCAA tournament starting up, NBA and NHL playoffs approaching and of course, MLB opening day is only 10 days away!

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

As the NBA season winds down, I would encourage you to really take these first look articles with a grain of salt.  I do my best to try to anticipate what injuries and rest situations we might encounter each night, but in the final month of the season we are going to see a lot of players sit out and we aren’t always going to know who it will be until later in the evening. Just be flexible and be ready to pivot to some of your other favorite plays in your lineups.

Tonight we have a solid 9-game main slate on FanDuel. There are some excellent games to target for DFS purposes and a good bit of injury information we are going to need before lock to make our final decisions. Let’s dive into the slate and take a closer look at our Vegas data and injury info.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

Injury Report

OUT: Russell Westbrook (suspension), Serge Ibaka (suspension), Jrue Holiday, C.J. McCollum, E’twaun Moore,

DOUBTFUL: T.J. Warren

QUESTIONABLE: Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Johnson, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Justise Winslow, Larry Nance Jr., Dennis Smith Jr., Noah Vonleh, Richaun Holmes, DeMarcus Cousins, Tristan Thompson

PROBABLE: Al Horford

It’s never much fun when the list of guys who are questionable is that long. At least we know that Westbrook and Ibaka are out with suspensions and that McCollum and Holiday aren’t playing and those absences are all going to open up some opportunity for other players to have some big nights.

Vegas Info

The Bulls, Heat, Pistons, Knicks, and Raptors all played yesterday and are on back-to-backs.

This is where it gets tricky this time of year. As of right now, there are only 5 of 9 games with Vegas lines out. Of those games with Vegas data, two games both stand out with 228.5 totals and that’s Utah-Washington and Phoenix-Chicago.

Two games that project to be close are both between playoff contenders. The Celtics-Nuggets game is only a 2.5 spread, while the Spurs-Warriors game is only a 2 point spread.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Dennis Schroder (6000)

This is pretty simple. Westbrook is out and Schroder will slot in as the starting point guard for the Thunder. He should get a nice bump in minutes and usage and only got a modest price increase. We basically have the opportunity to roster a starting point guard on a playoff team in one of our shooting guard slots today, which is pretty sweet. Just eat the chalk, it should taste delicious.

Rudy Gobert (9500)

I love this spot for GOAT-bert tomorrow as centers have just destroyed Washington in the paint this season. I don’t mind paying up for him either, as I want to try to lock down the most raw points at the center position in cash games on most nights. I think he’s got a clear path to 50 FD points tonight as long as Washington can keep it close.

Jalen Brunson (6100)

Brunson could end up chalky if Luka Doncic were to miss tonight’s game, but even if Doncic plays I like Brunson a lot in this matchup. The Mavs will be paced way up and as long as Brunson’s minutes return to normal (which they should), he should be easily able to pay off this price tag with his current usage and assist rates.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Dwayne Wade (5400)

This is a bit of dicey play only because Wade was doubtful to play yesterday and then ended up playing 28 minutes. The Miami injury situation could force Wade into playing again tonight, even though he tends to get rested on the second half of back-to-backs periodically. As long as he plays, I have interest in him at this low price as he and his Heat teammates will be paced up by the Thunder in a game that should stay close with OKC missing Westbrook.

Marc Gasol (7000)

Gasol has one more game to eat all the center minutes until Serge Ibaka returns from his 3-game suspension. He flirted with a triple-double in 36 minutes against the Pistons yesterday and has an even better matchup against the hapless Knicks tonight. If Kawhi Leonard is rested, then I think Gasol, Pascal Siakam, and Kyle Lowry will be counted on to carry the offensive load for Toronto tonight.

Paul George (11200)

When Russell Westbrook is out, you play Dennis Schroder and Paul George, it’s that simple. The only reason I have Schroder as a cash play and PG13 as a GPP play is their prices. FanDuel has made a real effort to price guys up when they know they’ll be popular plays due to teammates being out well in advance of the slate. This could help to keep George’s ownership low, and he’s shown this season what he’s capable of doing any given night.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Emmanuel Mudiay (4900)

If Dennis Smith Jr. sits out again tonight, then Mudiay becomes the best value play on the board. He’s played 32+ minutes in three straight games and went for 41 FD points yesterday against the Lakers. The matchup is less desirable here against the Raptors, but the minutes and opportunity at this price are unmatched.

Wesley Matthews (4400)

Speaking of secure minutes, Matthews has played 30+ minutes in nine straight games for the Pacers. Tonight he faces his original Portland squad and gets a solid matchup as they have struggled against shooting guards and small forwards. He’s more of cash play than GPP as he has not shown much of a ceiling.

Mikal Bridges (5100)

We are 100 over the limit for the value, but there’s not too much down there under 5k tonight. Bridges isn’t starting, but is still seeing heavy minutes and has been pretty consistent lately, scoring 25 or more FD points in 5 of his last 8 games.

Maxi Kleber (5200)

I’m stretching to rules so I can write up these guys in the low 5k range. I love Maxi again tonight as he’s seeing his minutes trend up in the right direction and has an excellent matchup against New Orleans.

Josh Jackson (5300)

Jackson got a price hike quickly after having an excellent game against New Orleans this weekend. I normally wouldn’t want to pay this much for him, but we could see Phoenix without Richaun Holmes and Tyler Johnson again, which would leave Jackson in line for increased minutes yet again.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings

What some players find really helpful are position rankings. I will rank my favorite players at each position based on their upside and point-per-dollar viability for cash and GPP.  Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” but it’s not an exhaustive list of my player pool by any means.

Point Guard

1. Damian Lillard
2. Steph Curry
3. Jalen Brunson/Emmanuel Mudiay

Shooting Guard

1. Dennis Schroder
2. Donovan Mitchell
3. Bradley Beal

Small Forward

1. Paul George
2. Jabari Parker
3. Josh Richardson

Power Forward

1. Pascal Siakam
2. Derrick Favors
3. Maxi Kleber

Center

1. Rudy Gobert
2. Marc Gasol
3. DeAndre Ayton

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Chicago (+3) @ Phoenix (228.5 total)

This should be a good game between two bad teams with bad defenses. This is not a game I want to target in cash games because Chicago is on the second half of a back-to-back and just didn’t show up yesterday against Sacramento. They are on the road again tonight against the Suns, but I am banking on them playing better tonight.

This is a pretty lofty total for a game between two teams that don’t play all that fast. But what is appealing about is that we know where we are going to be the majority of production teams and there are enough players on each side that are cheap enough to make this stack work. Pricing on FanDuel tonight is as tough as I’ve seen it during NBA DFS season.

Devin Booker (9800) and Zach LaVine (8300) are both shooting guards on FanDuel and using them both in your two SG slots is going to likely get you the highest scorer from each team tonight. The price on Booker is getting steep, but he’s playing at a very high level and I think he has a solid ceiling even at that price.

Kris Dunn (5800) is an interesting play for Chicago and pretty affordable, but Otto Porter, Lauri Markannen, and Robin Lopez are all a little pricey for my taste. I’ll probably get most of my exposure on the Phoenix side of things.

Other than Booker, I like DeAndre Ayton (7500) to bounce back after getting ejected in his last game with two technicals. I also really like Kelly Oubre Jr. ( 6900) and Josh Jackson at power forward. It’s pretty easy to fit both Chicago guards in a lineup with 3-4 of the Suns’ players.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup. I would even call this a “hybrid lineup,” meaning it has enough safety to play in cash but also some upside for tournaments, too. You should always play your cash lineup in at least one GPP – in case it goes crazy. Then you’re not kicking yourself for ending up in first place in your 50-50s with a score that would have won you a GPP.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are always pivots that need to be made as the slate unfolds during the day!

PG: Jalen Brunson (6100)

PG: Emmanuel Mudiay (4900)

SG: Dwayne Wade (5400)

SG: Dennis Schroder (6000)

SF: Paul George (11200)

SF: Jabari Parker (6100)

PF: Maxi Kleber (5200)

PF: Josh Jackson (5300)

C: Rudy Gobert (9600)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests