2019 Valspar Championship: PGA DraftKings Value Picks

2019 Valspar Championship: PGA DraftKings Value Picks

Welcome back for the DraftKings value picks for the Valspar Championship, which rounds out the Florida swing. Next week the PGA Tour goes to Austin, Texas for the Dell Technologies Match Play. That makes this week the last “normal” week of PGA DFS until Valero, which comes the first week of April.

Being a major downgrade from the field last week at The PLAYERS, the Valspar Championship does feature a solid field compared to what we have seen in the past.  The field consists of 144 players with the top 70 and ties making the cut.

We can expect the cut-line to be over par, as it has been for six consecutive years. There are plenty of big numbers to go around so having your golfers make the cut is huge this week, as always.

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) is the home of the Valspar Championship. Copperhead is a Par-71 that stretches over 7,300 yards. There are five Par-3’s, with four of the five being over 200 yards. The four Par-5’s at Copperhead are all very long, ranging from 560-605 yards.

Being a Par-71, I will be focusing on shorter hitters who excel on these types of courses. The key stats that should be weighted most heavily are Par 3 Birdie or Better, Ball Striking, and Greens in Regulation.

Last year’s winner, Paul Casey ($9,700), had rated out very well in these categories heading into the week. If you look back at the past winners, many of them are known for their short game. In fact, the top of the leaderboard has been filled out with these types of players.

2019 Valspar Championship: PGA DraftKings Value Picks

The World #1, Dustin Johnson, leads the way again this week at $11,500. He is the clear favorite to win the Valspar Championship and his price reflects that. Right behind him, coming off of a Sunday collapse at The PLAYERS, is Jon Rahm ($11,000). With not much to offer when we go further down the board, I have a hard time paying up over $11,000 for either Johnson, or Rahm.

Rounding out the players priced above $10,000, are Jason Day ($10,700), Webb Simpson ($10,400), and Sergio Garcia ($10,100). Each of these players are riding good form, but one of these three does separate themselves.

Jason Day $10,700

This is where I will be starting all of my lineups. Though he has not played at the Valspar Championship since 2013, he did make four straight cuts from 2010-2013. However, only one resulted in a top-20 finish. But this is a different Jason Day.

He rates out as good as anyone in the field when looking at the key stats. Day is currently 16th in Par 3 Birdie or better, 12th in Ball Striking, and 21st in Greens in Regulation. Aside from his W/D at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Day was playing as good as anyone not named Rory McIlroy. He actually has nine consecutive top-25 finishes worldwide where he has played all four rounds.

There were some questions about how healthy Day was last week at The PLAYERS, but they were quickly answered. He was right in the mix on Sunday and carded a final-round 72 which resulted in a tie for eighth. Lean heavy on Day this week at the Valspar Championship.

2019 Valspar Championship: PGA DraftKings Value Picks

This next range could be the place to differentiate your lineup. If we are going to pay up over $10k for one of the five golfers listed on the previous slide, it’ll be difficult to roster some of these players. There also are not too many appealing names. A lot of these golfers also seem a bit overpriced just by looking at their name. We are not used to seeing some of them up this high.

Gary Woodland $9,900

Priced just under that $10k mark, is Gary Woodland. He won the event in his first attempt in 2011. Since his win, he has made just four of seven cuts at the Valspar Championship. Woodland has yet to miss a cut this year and has actually made the cut in each of his past 23 events. His last missed cut dates all the way back to The PLAYERS last May.

Woodland checks all the boxes for Copperhead as well. He is currently inside of the top-10 in all three key stat categories listed on the first slide. Woodland ranks seventh in Par 3 Birdie or Better, first in Ball Striking, and third in Greens in Regulation. It just doesn’t get much better than that.

If your roster construction begins with Day and Woodland, you are left in the low $7,000 range to fill out the rest of your lineup. In terms of key stats, course history, and recent form, I feel pretty safe rostering these two at the top.

Alternate Option:

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,300): currently ranks sixth in Ball Striking, and 25th in GIR. Last two starts at Valspar resulted in top-20’s.

2019 Valspar Championship: PGA DraftKings Value Picks

From $8,000-$8,900, we find two of the past three winners in Adam Hadwin ($8,300), and Charl Schwartzel ($8,200). I am willing to completely fade both of them. Hadwin has been okay at times, but Schwartzel has just not been the same. He opened the year with four straight missed cuts, making his first at the alternate field in Puerto Rico.

Jason Kokrak $8,700

This is one example of some of these golfers feeling like they’re priced too high. He came in at The PLAYERS priced almost $2,000 below what we are getting him at this week. We’re not used to paying in the upper $8,000 range for Jason Kokrak, but here we are.

Kokrak comes into the Valspar Championship in sneaky good form. Though he may not come into this week’s event with as many consecutive worldwide cuts as Woodland, he has made 16 in a row. Surprisingly, half of these are good for top-20 finishes.

I would not expect too much ownership to be on Kokrak, as there are much more attractive names up in this range. Kokrak does fit the type of mold we are looking for this week ranking eighth in Ball Striking, and 22nd in Greens in Regulation. His course history isn’t the most impressive, but he has made the cut in three of his past five attempts, two of which resulted in top-15 finishes.

Alternate Option:

Brendan Grace ($8,000) is probably the best overall value in this range. The key stats don’t line up as well as some of the other players in the field, but Grace has made two consecutive cuts at the Valspar Championship. His best finish came last season, which was a tie for eighth.

2019 Valspar Championship: PGA DraftKings Value Picks

As I mentioned earlier, this is the range you will be spending a lot of time looking into if you start with the Day and Woodland build. That leaves you with an average of $7,300 left for your final three roster spots. Let’s take a look at some value down here:

Tyrrell Hatton $7,900

This just seems much too cheap for Tyrrell Hatton. He may not be the most consistent player in the world, but he sure is underpriced in this type of field. Even following his missed cut last week at the PLAYERS, Hatton still ranks inside the top-40 in the world. He should not be priced below $8,000, and I am willing to take my chances on him.

Danny Lee $7,300

Prior to his missed cut at the Valspar Championship last year, Danny Lee had two straight top-25 finishes at Copperhead. He has not been off to a great start in 2019, making just three of seven cuts, but Lee hasn’t been playing all that bad.

He currently ranks inside the top-50 in all of the key stats: 13th in Par 3 Birdie or Better, 48th in Ball Striking, and 18th in Greens in Regulation. It is rare to see a player with stats that line up if they are not playing wall, but that is not the case here. This could be the week it all comes together for Danny Lee.

Alternate Option:

Sam Ryder ($7,300) is a nice pivot for tournaments. Ryder had made five straight cuts prior to The PLAYERS last week. He made the cut in his debut at the Valspar Championship last year with a T68. In 2018, Ryder finished the season first in Ball Striking, and second in Greens in Regulation. There has got to be something there.

2019 Valspar Championship: PGA DraftKings Value Picks

Here we are, at the most interesting range from week to week. When paying up, this range is always crucial. In a field that does die off, we still are able to find some good value from $6,000-$6,900. They may not be the safest plays, but some do rate out well.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Jason Dufner $6,900

This is one of my favorite value plays on the slate. Jason Dufner is not the player he used to be, but at just $6,900, he is hard to pass up. Even through his struggles this season, Dufner still ranks 13th in Par 3 Birdie or Better, and 19th in Greens in Regulation.

Dufner’s track record here at Copperhead makes this price even more appealing. He has made the cut every single year since 2009, with all 10 being inside the top-30. That is the type of consistency you don’t see too often under $7,000. Though the form is not there, maybe a familiar course can get Dufner back on his feet.

Brendan Steele $6,700

The last time Brandan Steele played in the Valspar Championship was back in 2013 where he finished in a tie for 43rd. Steele got off to a hot start last week at The PLAYERS shooting a -4, 68 on Thursday. He went on to miss the cut by just one stroke after carding a 76 on Friday to finish even par.

Steele also has the type of game we are looking for here at a very reasonable price. He currently ranks second in Ball Striking and eighth in Greens in Regulation. Steele is best suited for tournaments and should not have much exposure.

Alternate Options:

Adam Svensson ($6,600) has shown up on a few leaderboards this season and currently ranks 11th in Par 3 Birdie or Better.

Alex Cejka ($6,000) is worth a look at the bare minimum price on DraftKings. He has made the cut at Copperhead in each of his last three attempts and ranks fourth in Par 3 Birdie or Better. Provides nice salary relief, but he’s a long shot. You could do worse.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and fantasy analysis each and every day!