DraftKings PGA: 2019 Valspar Championship Picks and Analysis
DraftKings PGA: 2019 The Valspar Championship
The Players definitely brought the excitement last week. The quality of that leader board was remarkable. Top 10 golfers would briefly make an appearance and then fade. The only constant was Rory McIlroy. He is playing inspired golf right now.
The irons are impressive, and the rest of his game is following suit. The approach numbers are so off the chart that he can just showcase above-average skills in other facets of his game and still sit atop the leader board. Enough about Rory and The Players though.
We should get another good tournament, as the Tour moves across the state of Florida to Tampa and the Valspar Championship.
Copperhead Course will host the Valspar Championship. Although the tournament has changed names multiple times, the course has remained a constant. Copperhead challenges these golfers with many sand traps, water hazards, small greens and difficult par-3’s.
Paul Casey is the defending champion of the Valspar Championship, shooting a final round 65 to take the victory from a handful of tier-1 golfers who could not close. Corey Conners was the 54-hole leader at -9.
Tiger Woods and Justin Rose both started the final 18 at 8-under. The leader board was also littered with guys like Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed and Webb Simpson. Adam Hadwin won the event in 2017, with Charl Schwartzel winning the 2016 edition.
Copperhead is consistently one of the most difficult courses on tour. The cut line is almost always over par and the winner is often in single digits. Bermuda is the dominant grass-type this week.
The Bermuda is over-seeded with Poa, but the over-seeded aspect will not be in full bloom due to the time of season. Copperhead is a relatively long course (7,340 yards at par-71), and challenges with tiny fairways, tiny greens, and an abundance of hazards.
Every week I favor ball-striking and approach, but at difficult tracts I like to place some emphasis on scrambling too.
Key Stats
Approach Gained
Ball striking Gained
Opportunities Gained
Short Game Gained
Scrambling Gained
Bermuda Gained
As always, you should be building your own models. FantasyNational.com and FutureOfFantasy.com are great tools to use.
DraftKings PGA: Valspar Championship – Picks
$10,100 Sergio Garcia
Sergio will again be popular this week. He is striking the ball beautify (3rd in SG:BS and 4th in SG:App over his last 12 rounds), loves this course (ranks 1st in SG:Total at Copperhead), and is playing great golf.
Sergio was provided many opportunities to climb the leader board at The Players, but could not capitalize. Garcia finished T22, gaining strokes in all aspects except around the green. The price is hefty, but with finishes of T4, T16 and T7 in three tries at Copperhead, I am backing Sergio.
$9,500 Patrick Reed
I can never really figure out Patrick Reed, so I would not be surprised one bit if he DFL’d. But I am liking what I see as far as how Reed fits this course. Sergio ranks 1st in SG:Total at Copperhead, and Reed ranks 2nd. Reed boasts finishes of T2, T38, T7 and T2.
He loves the course and he sets up great in my model. Reed may not strike his irons as pure as some of the golfers that sit atop my model, but Reed is a true grinder, ranking 2nd in the field in SG: Scrambling. Reed is a solid bet to make the cut, and I like what I have been seeing from his form to compete for the trophy.
$8,700 Ryan Moore
It may seem like I am just subscribing to a full course-history lineup. That is only partially true. Course history is a mild factor in my model this week, but recent form is also a huge factor. What I am saying is that Ryan Moore is playing really good golf.
He ranks top-20 in the field in ball-striking, approach, short game, and DraftKings scoring over his last 12 rounds. He checks the box in course history despite missing the cut last year (T18, 3rd, and 5th before that. I will be heavily overweight on Moore.
DraftKings PGA: Valspar Championship – Values
$8,100 Russell Knox
Knox is playing solid golf right now. He ranks 6th in approach and 8th in opportunities gained in this field. He has also made 9 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour. Knox is known as a golfer that loves tough courses, and should fit well at Copperhead.
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Knox has played this course well in the past, finishing T16 here last year and making 4/5 cuts at this course. That combination of recent form and course history makes Knox a lock in my lineups.
$7,100 Trey Mullinax
I hardly ever play Trey Mullinax, but I like the bounce back spot that he is in this week. Mullinax was heavily owned at the Honda (8.9%) and finished T51. Then last week at the players Mullinax missed the cut at 2% ownership.
His ownership will be reduced again this week, but his form has still been solid. Mullinax is ranked 11th in SG:BS in the field and is top-20 in the field I’m scrambling. Mullinax has only played this course twice, but finished T8 his last time out. If his ownership stays below 5%, Trey is a solid back this week.
$6,900 Adam Schenk
Since the transition from Poa to Bermuda, Schenk has been playing his best golf. He has not fished outside of the top-30 since the shift. He is striking the ball well, ranking 19th and 21st in approach and ball-striking respectively. Schenk played this event last year for the first time, finishing T59. His price has not caught up to his production.
Next. PGA Power Rankings: Valspar Championship. dark
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