March Madness 2019: 5 reasons Duke won’t win the national title

No. 4: Gonzaga, Virginia and North Carolina are all great

The increasingly loud conversation concerning the age limit in the NBA, the one-and-done rule and alternatives to the NCAA for young hoopers might lead you to believe college basketball was weakening. Not so.

This year’s tournament is so much stronger than last year’s at the top that any one winner will have a tough slate of games to come out on top. Add the challenge of these No. 1 seeds to Duke ending up with the best 2-seed in the tournament and their path becomes more difficult.

Last season, the likes of North Carolina, Xavier and Cincinnati were top-two seeds. Hindsight bias hurts our analysis of those squads a bit, but each team lost the first weekend. It would be a huge surprise if the Bulldogs, Cavaliers or Tar Heels lost next weekend.

Gonzaga beat Duke during the Maui Invitational tournament in the teams’ nonconference schedule, while North Carolina beat them twice without Zion Williamson. Finally, Virginia’s two matchups against the Blue Devils were decided by a total of 12 points.

Duke could conceivably play Michigan State and Gonzaga before ever getting to the national championship game, at which point the pressure of playing two of the best teams in the nation would make winning that sixth game might be stifling.