March Madness 2019: 5 reasons Duke won’t win the national title

No. 5: Everyone besides Zion Williamson

It takes just one look at the portion of Duke’s schedule without Williamson to understand how bad things can go.

Take the five-point loss to Virginia Tech on Feb. 26, a game in which Duke’s interior defense lost the game. Hokie forward Kerry Blackshear Jr. scored 23 points on 11 shot attempts and Virginia Tech got to the line 29 times to Duke’s 19. While the Blue Devils shot the ball better than their opponent, Virginia Tech turned the ball over just five times and shut down secondary playmakers such as Tre Jones and Jack White.

Another example is the team’s nine-point loss at the end of its conference schedule. North Carolina forced Cam Reddish and R.J. Barrett into 16-50 shooting combined as the two stars tried to take over the game but couldn’t. White had four points on six attempts. Again, the opponent limited turnovers and outshot Duke.

Looking even earlier in the season, Gonzaga beat Duke by letting Barrett make mistakes. The Canadian wouldn’t pass the ball in crunch time and finished 9-25 for 23 points, even missing four of eight free throw attempts.

The recipe is here: Make the other guys beat you. Let their unpolished, frenetic styles work against them. Williamson will have a huge impact, but the others aren’t as good. If Duke is going to lose, poor play from Reddish or Barrett will be a huge factor.