10 Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid in Your Fantasy Draft

There’s not much worse than having your fantasy baseball team ruined by a few really bad top end picks and we’re here to give 10 Fantasy Baseball Busts that should be avoided.

The 2019 MLB season is right around the corner and that means fantasy baseball draft season is in full throat! To me, there is such a massive difference between playing fantasy baseball to football and one of the biggest reasons is trying to fill so many different positions. With that in mind, busts can be even more costly because not only do you have to try to replace that spot during the season, but you miss on so much else. Dodging the Fantasy Baseball Busts in the top 100-150 picks can be one of the keys to a successful year.

For the series of articles that will be referencing ADP(average draft position), we’ll be looking at the NFBC ADP. For those who don’t know what the NFBC is, they have some of the highest stakes contests for fantasy baseball. Some of the best players in the world play in these contests so my belief is their ADP is one of the best ones to reference. It’s also important to keep in mind that a “bust” doesn’t mean the player will have a bad season. It’s quite possible that he has a good season, but isn’t worth his current draft price. Let’s take a look at who could cost you this year I you draft them at their current price.

10. Edwin Diaz, RP – New York Mets

NFBC ADP – 50th overall, first closer off the board 

2018 Stats – 1.96 ERA, 57 saves, 0.791 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 

I’m likely not going to be the first or the last one to suggest that you need to tread lightly with Diaz this year. Additionally, I would be shocked if he has a bad season. The problem with Diaz is he’s going inside the top 50 in ADP and I can’t get behind that at all.

At 24 years old, Diaz had a 2018 season to remember. He turned out to be the MLB leader is saves  which is a fantastic accomplishment on its own. His numbers across the board support just how utterly dominate Diaz was. Therein lies the problem because the odds of repeating almost any number(let alone all of them) is minuscule. Even a move from the American League to the National League is likely not enough to prop up some of these metrics. Diving into his career averages for his first two seasons shows the enormous leap Diaz showed.

Saves – 57 in 2018, 26 on average

ERA – 1.96 in 2018, 3.03 on average

WHIP – 0.791 in 2018, 1.156 on average

K/9 – 15.2 in 2018, 13.7. on average

It’s not like he edged out some of these numbers. He flat-out destroyed all of them. There is something to be said for just getting better at his age and it just being natural, but it’s such a tough bet to see him matching these again. Diaz is going as the first closer off the board and there’s just too many going later to sink a top 50 pick into a player that’s going to be excellent, but likely not the number one player at an extremely volatile position.

9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B – Toronto Blue Jays

NFBC ADP – 46th overall, third 3B off the board 

2018 Stats(Minor Leagues) – 408 PA, .381 average, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 1.073 OPS, 10.6 percent strikeout rate

The numbers are totally eye-popping for Vlad in the minors last year. There was a lot of clamoring for the Blue Jays to bring him to the majors last year and it was likely deserved. Unfortunately, baseball is set up that the young guns are held back as long as possible to benefit the team. That’s neither here nor there for fantasy, but what is relevant is Guerrero is going as a top 40 player and that seems totally crazy to me. His ADP has fallen a bit with his oblique injury but not enough to account for any type of failure at the MLB level.

The only two third basemen going earlier are Nolan Arenado and Jose Ramirez, who are both fantasy elite. While I’m a big time believer in the talent showing through, we don’t even have an exact date that Guerrero will be in a Blue Jays uniform. We know that Toronto will keep him down until they get the maximum contractual control, but those dates aren’t ever exact. It’s far from a guarantee that Guerrero can just hit the ground running and be worthy of a top 40 selection. For instance, he’s going right around the likes of Rhys Hoskins, Noah Syndergaard, Khris Davis and J.T. Realmuto, to name a few. Before the oblique popped up, he was ahead of these players. Sometimes it doesn’t pay to just play it safe and you have to shoot for upside but the hype for Guerrero is still off the charts for drafting purposes.

If you really want to get in on some rookie production, you can take a player like Eloy Jimenez for the White Sox about 75 picks later. Jimenez has some massive power upside to go along with some solid contact skills and has a chance to end up with a similar season to Guerrero in some respects. I’m not trying to argue that he’s the same player because that’s disingenuous. All I’m saying is the cost is far more reasonable. I personally cannot wait to see these kids in the majors, but that doesn’t mean I have to get silly with my fantasy squad. Guerrero has a steep climb to pay off a top 40-50 selection. Think of it this way – if Guerrero hit around .270-.280 and 30 home runs, it should be considered a major success for a rookie. Khris Davis is going right there and has hit .247 with 40+ home runs for three straight seasons. Guerrero carries a lot of upside, but Davis is the safer pick.

8. James Paxton, SP – New York Yankees

NFBC ADP – 55th overall, 16th SP off the board

2018 Stats – 3.76 ERA, 11-6 record, 1.098 WHIP, 11.7 K/9

To start with Paxton, the ERA is certainly a disservice to how good he was last year. His SIERA of 2.96 and xFIP of 3.02 would back up the suggestion that the ERA was rather unlucky. This is a man who was in the Cy Young conversation until injuries derailed him late in 2018 and he fell apart. Having said that, we’ve hit one of the first speed bumps with Paxton and that is his lengthy injury history. Paxton has only exceeded 150 innings pitched once in his big league career and that was last season. You can basically bank on him missing some time, considering he’s about to enter his age-30 season.

Even if you think Paxton was going to last the entire season, it’s fairly difficult to ignore the massively negative park shift for Paxton. Based off of ESPN rankings for ballpark factors in 2018, T-Mobile Park in Seattle was 27th while Yankee Stadium was sixth. Paxton is going from one of the friendliest parks for pitchers to one of the worst. There are ways to negate that and Paxton does have a high strikeout rate that could help keep the ball in the park. That could be where the good news stops if he repeats some of his metrics from last season.

While one of the ways to keep runs off the board in any ball park is to strike hitters out, another solid way is typically to keep the ball on the ground. Last season, Paxton had a 39.6 percent ground ball rate compared to a 41.1 fly ball rate. That is not ideal at all for Yankee Stadium and then we get to the splits Paxton displayed last year. Oddly enough, over 112 plate appearances by lefty hitters, Paxton surrendered a .303 average and a .874 OPS. I wouldn’t kill him for the lefty splits because they are very against character for Paxton, it’s just a piece of the puzzle from 2018. With the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and the general hitters atmosphere, the 23 home runs Paxton gave up last year could repeat if not climb. He’s a dangerous pick as a SP2 on your team.

7. Shohei Ohtani, DH – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

NFBC ADP – 174th overall, third DH off the board

2018 Stats – 367 plate appearances, .285 average, 22 home runs, 61 RBI, .925 OPS, 27.8 percent strikeout rate

The ADP for Ohtani has plummeted recently so maybe folks are coming to their senses. The 2018 rookie season for Ohtani was nothing short of electric. He showed exactly why he was so coveted when he was coming to the majors from overseas with his hitting and pitching prowess. Then came the news that Ohtani had ligament damage in his arm and it required Tommy John surgery. We already know that Ohtani will not pitch this season, which means he’s being drafted solely as a hitter. On top of that, he’s only going to be a designated hitter so he can’t even be used as a position player. That’s why I’m a little confused as to why he’s being drafted as a top 150 player.

Even though Ohtani is saying that he’s trying to be ready for Opening Day, the Angels have reportedly said they’re targeting May for his return date. Since the Angels have final say and have every reason to protect Ohtani, I’m leaning towards the May projection. That already takes a month off his season. When he does make his return, the Angels will likely stick to a similar plan as last year when he sat basically every time the opposition had a lefty pitcher on the mound. Once we tack on a few extra rest days here and there as he goes through his throwing program to rehab the pitching side of his game, the number of at-bats Ohtani can reasonably get to this year continues to drop lower and lower.

I’d be surprised if Ohtani isn’t a valuable asset when he’s on the field. The problem is you can’t bank on more than three or maybe four games a week from him. Even if you can set your lineup every single day, it’s a high pick to spend on a limited player. If you’re in a league that you can only set your lineup once a week, Ohtani has even less of an impact. You should also change your league to daily lineups, but that’s another ball of wax in and of itself. The best part of Ohtani last season was being able to use him as both a pitcher and hitter. That’s out the window this year and even the hitter portion of his game isn’t enough to overcome his shortcomings.

6. Chris Archer, SP – Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP – 131st overall, 34th SP off the board

2018 stats(With the Pirates) – 4.30 ERA, 3-3 record, 1.36 WHIP, 10.32 K/9(52.1 IP)

This one isn’t my favorite to write as I am a big Pirates fan and I’ve loved Chris Archer for many years. I was super excited when Pittsburgh swung the trade last season and I’m looking forward to Archer’s first full season in black and gold. I’m not going to lie when I say I’m hoping to be wrong with this call. Maybe “bust” is a strong word for the 34th starter being drafted, but there is a major red flag that concerns me with Archer and it has to do with the philosophy of the Pirates.

Once Archer got to the Burgh, he suddenly started throwing a sinker and that’s not a coincidence. The Pirates have always been a team that wants their pitchers to take advantage of the shift and pitch the ball into contact for quick outs. That’s fine when you have fringe talent and you’re trying to manage a staff through a long and grinding season. Archer is far more talented than fringe. He’s always been a good strikeout pitcher and he actually raised his K/9 a bit in Pittsburgh. It may have been even better had he not been using the sinker as much as he did.

Via Brooks Baseball, Archer threw a sinker 226 times last season, almost all of which came as a Pirate. He surrendered a .326 batting average(worst of his four main pitches), a .478 slugging percentage(second worst), a .152 ISO(basically tied for second worst) and generated a 7.08 whiff percentage(worst of the four). It’s hard to make too much of an argument that the pitch helped Archer, and it’s generally been a backbone of how the Bucs conduct their business. If I knew that Archer wasn’t going to be relying on that pitch near 25 percent of the time, I would love Archer. As things stand given his short track record as a Pirate, he winds up as a pass for me.

5. Joey Votto, 1B – Cincinnati Reds

NFBC ADP – 67th overall, fifth 1B off the board

2018 Stats – 623 plate appearances, .284 average, 12 home runs, 67 RBI, .837 OPS, 16.2 percent strikeout rate 

If Joey Votto was between the ages of mid-20’s to about 31-32, I’d likely give him a pass for last season and just move on, expecting more greatness. Votto is one of the best hitters the game has ever seen(don’t @ me about homers and RBI) but last season sure looked like it could be the start of his descent from the top of the mountain. He took a massive step back in multiple categories and at the age of 35, that has to be a concern moving into next season.

Looking back, Votto has played in at least 130 games in every season expect for 2014 and 2012. We’ll put those stats to the side, since they’re not the fairest comparison due to lack of games played. In all the other seasons since 2008, last season saw Votto hit career lows in hits, doubles, home runs, RBI, average, slugging percentage, OPS and lastly total bases. It’s not much of an exaggeration to say this was the worst full season of Votto’s career to this point. One of the biggest indicators that the decline could be on the way(other than those numbers) was the steep decline against lefty pitching.

Despite being a lefty hitter, Votto has always handled lefty pitching extremely well. He was a hitter that you didn’t have to be concerned about a platoon split, which was a nice luxury to have. In 217 plate appearances last year, Votto logged a .260 average, .758 OPS, .116 ISO and struck out a little more than three percent more than his seasonal average. He already was behind the curve when it came to the power numbers but he made up for that with on base skills and one of the highest averages in the game. If those skills start to slip and the power numbers go further south, Votto might find himself outside the top 10 at his own position, which he almost did last season.

4. Corey Kluber, SP – Cleveland Indians

NFBC ADP – 24th overall, fifth SP off the board

2018 Stats – 2.89 ERA, 20-7 record, 0.991 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 

One could argue that this is the boldest choice of the entire list. Kluber has been an ace pitcher for the past few seasons as Cleveland has enjoyed a nice run of success. He finished as a top 10 pitcher yet again in 2018, despite some erosion in some of his metrics. To me, this that’s where the red flags start to go up a little bit. The differences might not seem to be that big of a deal when taken on their own. However, since the start of the 2014 season, Kluber has pitched 1,136.1 innings including the postseason. That is a massive number for a pitcher who will be 33 years old in early April.

Perhaps the bar was simply too high after he won his second Cy Young in 2017 but the results weren’t quite the same. Don’t get it confused, Kluber was still excellent last year but when we’re looking to make a pick in the top 25, you have to be harsh to see where potential disaster lies. The ace for the Indians saw his ERA rise, WHIP rise and his strikeouts take a downturn. The mileage could be catching up, though Kluber should still be a quality pitcher for the next couple seasons. You’re not taking him in a spot where quality is enough, he has to be great.

Another nick against Kluber is the Indians roster has decayed around him. The odds of him winning  20 games again seem slim with the lineup the Indians have. That would be even truer if Francisco Lindor is out to start the season. The bullpen is not quite as good with the departures of Cody Allen and Andrew Miller. For me, there are far too many scenarios where Kluber could fail to live up to his draft capital and I’ll be looking at other options to anchor my staff.

3. Ozzie Albies, 2B – Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP – 59th overall, fourth 2B off the board 

2018 Stats – 684 plate appearances, .261 average, 24 home runs, 72 RBI, 14 stolen bases, .757 OPS, 17 percent strikeout rate 

The Braves stormed the scene last year and at the forefront was their young duo of Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies. The second baseman rode a massive first half to an All-Star berth at a tender age of 21. Coming into his age 22 season, Albies is a trendy player in the fantasy industry but there is potential for a major floor here. After the first half that deservedly earned that All-Star berth, the bottom really fell out for Albies in the second half and there lies the concerns.

Which half was the real Albies? Was it the first half or the second half that saw his numbers take a massive tumble? The average dropped 55 points, the OPS dropped 210 points and the ISO dropped 110 points which led to only four home runs. The only positives in the second half for Albies was that his walk percentage did rise by over two percent. When we look at causes for this drop-off, the easy solution could be the BABIP(batting average on balls in play). While it did drop from .297 to .265, I’m not sure that’s enough of a reason to explain everything that went wrong in the second half.

To be fair, at his age this could be a slight bump in the road for Albies. We could look back at the end of the 2019 season and laugh at the thought of having concerns about Albies. I don’t think that’s going to be the case. Seeing the league adjust to him in the second half to the extent that they did is a serious concern. There’s likely a middle ground between the halves but that’s not going to justify a pick so high. If looking for a second baseman, I might take Whit Merrifield earlier or just wait to snag Scooter Gennett or Jonathan Villar.

2. Clayton Kershaw, SP – Los Angeles Dodgers

NFBC ADP – 50th overall, 15th SP off the board

2018 Stats – 2.73 ERA, 9-5 record, 1.04 WHIP, 8.6 K/9

At 31 years old, we may have already seen the best from Clayton Kershaw. If that sounds harsh or cold, sometimes that’s just the way sports goes. There’s a ton of factors working against Kershaw this season but it seems like they’re being mostly ignored. Kershaw has dropped a little bit in the draft process due to already being shut down. Reports are a little sketchy, but it appears that Kershaw’s arm/shoulder are already bothering him and it’s only Spring Training. He’s barely thrown to this point and frankly is falling off my boards almost entirely.

Over the past five seasons, Kershaw has only hit the 200 innings pitched plateau once and has only eclipsed 180 twice, none of which happened in the past three seasons. In addition to the innings being very low the last three years, we’ve seen steady increases in ERA, FIP, xFIP, WHIP and H/9. All these increases suggests this isn’t just an unlucky streak and the dominance we’ve grown accustomed to with Kershaw might be tough to recapture. It seems like the four seam fastball may be the culprit to some of the low numbers this past year.

In 2018, Kershaw lost about two MPH on the four seamer and the batters seemed to adjust in a hurry. For his career, hitters only hit for a .247 average and a .127 ISO against the four seam fastball. During the 2018 season, those numbers jumped up to .291 and .217. One of the other major red flags is the K/9 numbers.

When a pitcher has an innings cap(whether its implicit or not, the Dodgers aren’t letting him pitch 200+ innings) and he’s not even striking out a batter per inning, that’s an issue. When drafting Kershaw instead of a Patrick Corbin, you could see a difference of 50-70 strikeouts on the season. Corbin himself would have to repeat his big season from last year, but I think that’s more likely than Kershaw getting back on track. Kershaw just recently fell behind Corbin but is still being taken as a top 15 option, which just doesn’t make sense. There is far too much risk with Kershaw all the way around this season.

1. Javier Baez, Infield – Chicago Cubs

NFBC ADP – 15th overall, top four in all eligible positions

2018 Stats – 645 plate appearances, .290 average, 34 home runs, 111 RBI, 21 stolen bases, .881 OPS, 25.9 percent strikeout rate

If you look up the definition of “career season”, I think there might be a picture of Javier Baez from 2018 next to the description. He was a monster for the Cubs in 2018 and has vaulted into the top 15 for fantasy by draft position. It sure seems like you’re paying for the absolute premium with Baez this season and I for one am highly concerned about taking that route.

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In the previous two seasons, Baez combined for 134 RBI. That means he only knocked in 23 fewer runs last year than he had in the previous two years combined. He hit only three fewer home runs in 2018 than he did in 2016-2017. He also set career highs in plate appearances, at-bats, hits(by almost 50), doubles, triples, batting average, stolen bases(basically combined 2016-2017 total in 2018) and OPS. It’s actually hard to find any category that Baez didn’t set a new career best at and that is very dangerous coming into the following season. If he had just marginally beat his normal season, that would be one thing. He utterly destroyed too many categories to not be concerned at this price tag.

Since we know that Baez almost has to regress in some areas, let’s take a peek at the players who he’s going around – Manny Machado, Chris Sale, Aaron Judge, Trevor Story and Bryce Harper. I have a very hard time taking Baez ahead of any of those players knowing that he could take a significant hit going into next year. He has a 28.1 strikeout percentage on his career, meaning that the plate discipline could go sideways in a hurry. I’m not willing to make Baez one of my building blocks of my fantasy teams with all the red flags surrounding him.

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