10 fantasy baseball sleepers to help dominate your league

The big name players might be the ones carrying your fantasy baseball team, but one of the best ways to get ahead of your league is to unearth the right Fantasy Baseball Sleepers.

Is there really much more of a gratifying experience in fantasy than getting ahead of the curve in your league and finding the Fantasy Baseball Sleepers that completes your team? You have to find some players that will outperform their draft cost to make a team work. We’re going to focus on players that are going outside the top 75 based on NFBC ADP.

While there are values in the top 75, it’s tough to qualify them as sleeper material with still spending a top end pick on them. Since there are so many positions on the baseball diamond, there are infinite ways to build a team. Some owners will opt to punt certain categories until late or try to be as balanced as they can all the way through. Regardless of your approach, these players should be able to help your team this season.

10. Tyler Glasnow, SP – Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC ADP – 161st overall, 60th pitcher off the board 

2018 Stats – 4.20 ERA, 1-5 record, 1.09 WHIP, 10.3 K/9(55.2 IP for Tampa)

I’ll join the chorus of fantasy analysts beating the drum for the big lefty down in Tampa this season. After he was a centerpiece to the Chris Archer trade to Pittsburgh, Glasnow refined his approach and saw some noticeable gains in his results. Many attribute some of these gains to pitching coach Kyle Snyder, since he pitched in the bigs and is 6’7″, so maybe he understands Glasnow a bit better. Regardless of the exact reasons behind it, Glasnow was a very different pitcher in Tampa.

In the 55.2 innings he pitched with the Rays, perhaps one of the biggest gains was his control. Yes, his K/9 did drop off a little bit from Pittsburgh but it was still comfortably in the double digits at 10.3. You’re going to take the drop of 1.3 K/9 in Tampa because the walks took a massive leap forward. While in Pittsburgh, it was a whooping 5.5/9 and that’s just far too high to be successful. Tampa was able to get that number down to 3.1/9 which would be considered a huge success. Glasnow’s control was always one of the things that held him back in Pittsburgh.

The xFIP would point towards a much better ERA as well coming into this year. Through the second half, it was down at 3.64 which doesn’t match the 3.94 ERA he did post. We should also take into account the 3.94 was still a sharp downturn from the 4.67 ERA in the first half. With the Rays not having a ton of reliable starters, Glasnow should be given every chance to approach 160-180 innings this year. If things continue on the course we saw with Tampa, he could be a very cheap shot at 200 strikeouts and very solid ratios across the board.

9. Yasiel Puig, OF – Cincinnati Reds

NFBC ADP – 87th overall, 24th OF off the board

2018 Stats – 444 plate appearances, .267 average, 23 home runs, 63 RBI, 15 stolen bases, .820 OPS, 8.1 walk percentage, 19.6 strikeout percentage

Baseball can be a funny thing. A few years ago, Puig was supposed to be one of the faces of the game and a cornerstone of the Los Angeles organization. Now we’re talking about him as a potential sleeper and we’re hoping that he gets over 500 at-bats for just the second time in his career. Some of that has been due to various injuries through his career, some have been a crowded lineup in Los Angeles. Considering the Reds traded for him and could use an everyday outfielder, I think Puig is going to find a home in Cincinnati.

It’s hard to ignore that Puig sees one of the biggest park upgrades he could possibly get. According to ESPN, Dodger Stadium ranked in the bottom five for hitters while Great American Ball Park was in the top five. In fact, it was the number one park for home runs, which only means good things for a player like Puig. Despite playing in a poor park and splitting playing time, Puig set career bests in fly ball rate, HR/FB rate, line drive rate and hard contact rate. All of these numbers scream that a big power season can be on the way, he just needs the at-bats and environment.

What might surprise some folks if Puig has yet to record a season of more than 30 home runs or 80 RBI. Both of those marks can be reached this season, especially since he could hit behind Joey Votto. While I’m not enthusiastic for Votto’s fantasy appeal this year, he still knows how to get on base. That’s going to give Puig a big opportunity. Also, only nine other players hit at least 20 home runs and stole at least 15 bases last season. Even in limited playing time, Puig was a rare fantasy commodity and we could be on the verge of the full breakout this year.

8. Kirby Yates, RP – San Diego Padres

NFBC ADP – 123rd overall, 13th RP off the board

2018 Stats – 2.14 ERA, 12 saves, 0.92 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 

It’s not very often we’re writing about a 32 year old reliever but when said pitcher has a major breakout, it’s worth it to figure out why. Yates was utterly dominant this past season and it was in stark contrast to his career numbers to date. Perhaps we need not look any further than his development of a new pitch, as detailed in the San Diego Tribune. In a league that continues to have fewer closers to rely upon, Yates can be a cheaper source of saves and dominant ratios to boot.

It would seem easy to cast aside these numbers as a weird career year. There’s plenty of reason to believe in them for 2019, not counting the split fingered fastball he has been using. The SIERA, FIP and xFIP were all 2.64 or under, so it wasn’t just good bounces making the ERA look good. Even though the strand rate was a bit unsustainably high at 87 percent, Yates balanced that out with a ground ball rate that was six percent over his career rate. There’s nobody in the San Diego bullpen that should challenge Yates for the closer role, meaning that he should have every chance to save around 35-40 games.

The swinging strike percentage is kind of eye-popping as well. It sat at 16.7 percent in 2018, and only five relief pitchers of repute had numbers higher. All five are going ahead of Yates in drafts, so you’re paying a premium for those pitchers. Swinging strikes aren’t the be all, end all but when it’s combined with some of his other numbers, the puzzle pieces really fit nicely. You could easily make him part of a great(and cheaper in draft costs than your opponents) relief staff.

7. Adam Frazier, 2B/OF – Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP – 354th, 30th 2B off the board

2018 Stats – 352 plate appearances, .277 average, 10 home runs, 35 RBI, 1 stolen base, .798 OPS, 8.2 walk percentage, 15.1 strikeout percentage

It would be very silly of me to suggest that Adam Frazier is ever going to be a building block of your team, but he could be a very useful piece in a deep league for a multitude of reasons. First, he profiles as a pretty nice leadoff man for his skills alone. The walk rate would have landed him right inside the top 85 among all major league hitters had he qualified. He doesn’t strike out a ton, which means the ball ends up in play quite a bit. He should have an everyday job in Pittsburgh with the departure of Josh Harrison and something appeared to click in for Frazier down the stretch in 2018.

He was sent to the minors in June, hitting under .240 and then was brought back in later July, playing 55 games the rest of the season. From the time he was brought back to the major leagues, he raised his average to .277 by hitting .306 in just under 200 plate appearances. Perhaps the more surprising aspect was he showed some power potential(for his style of player) with seven home runs. If that part of his game could stay consistent, you’d be looking at a player that could hit 18-22 home runs over the course of 600 or so plate appearances.

The home run power might not carry over to that level but 15 seems to be a pretty solid bet. On top of that, he should be a positive for you in batting average and on base percentage. Positional flexibility is also a nice bonus since he can be deployed at multiple spots. The Pirates offense is not going to be any better than average, but he should score at least 80 runs at the top of the lineup and you’re getting him so late it may as well be thievery. In leagues where it makes sense, I’m looking to draft Frazier as often as possible.

6. Shane Bieber, SP – Cleveland Indians

NFBC ADP – 154th overall, 50th SP off the board

2018 Stats – 4.55 ERA, 11-5 record, 1.33 WHIP, 9.26 K/9 

Judging by some of the traditional metrics, Bieber was nothing special in his rookie season for the Indians. He had a higher than you’d want ERA and WHIP without anything that is redeeming in any other facet of his game. However, almost all of the advanced metrics show that Bieber was a very unlucky pitcher and is due for some positive regression in 2019.

The first place to start is the FIP, xFIP and SIERA. They all scream that the ERA for Bieber was maddeningly high since all three numbers are 3.45 or lower. When we look as to what could have caused the disconnect for the ERA and the advanced numbers, the places to start are BABIP and strand rate. The first number was unreasonably high at .356, which almost has to come down. Likewise, the strand rate of 69.4 percent means that way too many runners scored and that won’t repeat. The other encouraging sign for Bieber was his low walk rate and his career in the minors that would point to good control. If the BABIP corrects, the ERA and the WHIP will follow. Now you’re looking at a pitcher who can strike out a batter per inning and doesn’t hurt you anywhere else either.

The nice thing about sleepers like Bieber is even if he misses and isn’t any better than he was last season, this draft pick doesn’t wreck your team. The risk is very low for the potential reward for a player that doesn’t walk hitters and should be a plus in ERA, WHIP and a positive win-loss record. He’ll be entering his age 24 year season and the breakout could be right in front of us.

5. Domingo Santana, OF – Seattle Mariners

NFBC ADP – 262 overall, 66th OF off the board

2018 Stats – 235 plate appearances, .265 average, 5 home runs, 20 RBI, 1 stolen base, .740 OPS, 8.5 walk percentage, 32.8 strikeout percentage 

If you’re new to fantasy baseball or have only played since the start of last year, you might be looking at this pick and wondering exactly who Santana is. After spending the 2018 season losing playing time in Milwaukee to Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich and Jesus Auguilar, many have forgotten that Santana has shown to be a very useful fantasy commodity. He is only one season removed from a 30 home run, 15 stolen base campaign for the Brew Crew in 2017.

I’m almost willing to cast aside the 2018 numbers simply because there wasn’t enough playing time to go around in Milwaukee. That’s not going to be any type of an issue in the new look Mariners offense as they need the middle of the order to help replace the loss of Nelson Cruz. Seattle could play Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce and Santana as their 4-5-6 portion of the lineup and that could provide plenty of opportunity for Santana. One negative that isn’t likely to fix itself in Seattle is the strikeouts. However, he still manages to walk a good amount and helps in so many other areas, it’s worth it to put up with a high strikeout rate.

Another factor that does hurt Santana is the park downgrade from Milwaukee to Seattle. There’s just no way around that but Santana just hits the ball hard and that translates to any park. Even last season, he had a hard hit percentage of 40.1 and saw his HR/FB rate plummet from a career 26.3 percent to 13.2. The mentality of knowing he has an everyday job could help Santana regain some of the form of 2017 but regardless of that, the metrics tend to agree he didn’t lose that much last season. He was a bit unlucky and played part-time. Much like Puig, not many players have a possible outcome of 20 homer runs and 15 stolen bases. Santana is one of the cheapest ways to potentially get a player like that for your outfield.

4. Jon Gray, SP – Colorado Rockies

NFBC ADP – 204th overall, 71st SP off the board

2018 Stats – 5.12 ERA, 12-9 record, 1.35 WHIP, 9.56 K/9

I’m not entirely sure there’s a player on this list that was flat out as unlucky as Gray was in the 2018 season. The righty for the Rockies looked like he got pummeled last year and while that was accurate in a sense, he also had one of the largest gaps in ERA to FIP we’ve seen in the past 10 years at 5.12 to 4.08. For that aspect alone, he could be worth the little bit of draft capital that you have to spend but it goes even deeper than that.

Sometimes the year just doesn’t go right and that appears to be what happened with Gray. The xFIP and SIERA agree with the FIP as they were way under 4.00. The WHIP, strikeout percentage, strand rate, fly ball rate and BABIP were basically all in line with every season in Gray’s career. The hard hit rate and FB/HR rate were a little elevated but it still wouldn’t explain the massive shift to that bloated of an ERA. Gray’s fastball gave him some trouble even though he threw it at a career low 49.6 percent. On his career, he gives up an average of .322 and an ISO of .191. In 2018, he saw those two numbers jumps to .328 and .215. Despite the lower amount of time he was throwing that particular pitch, the poor results seem easier to explain because a pitch he still leaned on was getting hammered.

Don’t let yourself be fooled with the Coors Field factor either. Not only did fellow rotation members German Marquez and Kyle Freeland prove you can be a valuable fantasy pitcher while wearing a Rockies uniform, Gray himself was actually slightly better in Coors in 2018. His ERA and slugging was lower at home and his strikeout rate was higher. It can be done and Gray could have a full breakout season at an insanely cheap cost in 2019.

3. Daniel Murphy, 2B – Colorado Rockies

NFBC ADP – 82nd overall, sixth 2B off the board 

2018 Stats – 351 plate appearances, .299 average, 12 home runs, 42 RBI, 3 stolen bases, .790 OPS, 5.7 walk percentage, 11.4 strikeout percentage 

We’re not going too far for the next sleeper on the list and if there was ever a hitter that was meshed well for hitting in Coors Field, it’s Daniel Murphy. The three time All-Star and two time Silver Slugger may be on the back end of his career but he can still have a very successful season in one of the friendliest parks in the majors. Not only does he see a big park upgrade, but he should be dual position eligible shortly into the season. Colorado plans on playing him at first base quite often and multiple position players can help navigate the long MLB grind.

Murphy fits the bill for Coors for a few reasons. First, he doesn’t strike out that much. That means the ball is getting put into play and the odds of it going far in Denver are good. Murphy did see his hard hit percentage take a downturn last year to just 26.1 percent, almost 10 percent under his 2017 number. That’s likely due to the injuries he fought all season. Murphy appears to be healthy and the move to first base should alleviate some of the wear and tear as well. Additionally, Murphy hit a fly ball 39.2 percent of the time in 2018. Putting him in a lineup with Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story is going to do wonders for his counting stats.

The power numbers might not be traditional for a player that you would utilize at first base, but Murphy has the advantage over a lot of other first basemen in average and on base percentage. He might even chip in 10 stolen bases on top of the rest of the package. Of the five hitters being drafted in the top 90, Murphy comes the cheapest and is firmly on my radar in every draft I’m in this season.

2. Forrest Whitley, SP – Houston Astros

NFBC ADP – 239th overall, 79th starting pitcher

2018 Stats(In 26.1 AA innings) – 3.76 ERA, 0-2 record, 0.99 WHIP, 11.62 K/9

He may not have thrown a single pitch in the majors yet, but Whitley is widely considered the number one pitching prospect in baseball at this moment. He does come with the caveat that you should likely not expect more than 140 innings or so. He only threw 26 innings last season due to a mix of suspension and injury and you can bet the Astros will be cautious. Even with limited innings, Whitley brings a significant ceiling at his ADP.

The big righty brings some serious heat with his fastball and has carried a high strikeout rate all through the minors. Some of the other advanced metrics we look at for pitchers aren’t readily available for minor league players. I’m not terribly concerned about his lack of AAA pithing either. Talent wins out, especially with his fastball and frame. His control numbers are perfectly acceptable as well and he will have some great mentors in the majors with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole on the staff. That’s also where things get interesting because for being a World Series contender, the rotation for Houston looks a bit sketchy right now.

No less than a massive 500 innings pitched in the 2018 season is missing from the projected rotation. Lance McCullers had Tommy John surgery and is out for the year. Charlie Morton is a Tampa Bay Ray. Dallas Keuchel is …well, still not even with a team. Regardless, the Astros have a massive hole in the back portion of their rotation that’s being held by Wade Miley, Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh. Josh James had been bandied about to take one of those spots but has been fighting a quadriceps injury and is unsure for Opening Day. The point is, there’s a very clear pathway for a stud prospect to take the hill for Houston this year. He’s going so late that there is still massive upside if he hits his potential on this good of a team.

1. Max Muncy, 1B/3B – Los Angeles Dodgers

NFBC ADP – 112th overall, 11th 1B off the board and 16th 3B

2018 Stats – 481 plate appearances, .263 average, 35 HR, 75 RBI, 3 stolen bases, .973 OPS, 16.4 walk percentage, 27.2 strikeout percentage 

If you tell me you knew who Max Muncy was before the start of last season and aren’t anything but a hardcore Dodgers or baseball fan, I’d call you a liar. Muncy took the MLB and fantasy world by storm en route to one of the more surprising 35 home run seasons in recent memory. Muncy must be remembered for the end of his season, when he was ceding playing time to Manny Machado and Brian Dozier(among others). I can’t blame the Dodgers for going all in for a championship, but the path is a little clearer for Muncy to hit 550 plate appearances this year.

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If(when) that happens, Muncy should smash value at his ADP. He may have come out of nowhere for his breakout, but all the underlying metrics seem to agree that it was no fluke. Of all players that accumulated 450 plate appearances, Muncy had the fourth highest walk rate after Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Joey Votto. That’s some elite company and makes it much easier to deal with the strikeout rate. He also checks in with the highest ISO of the group, suggesting that his power was no accident. A hard hit percentage of 47.2 supports that idea as well, along with the line drive percentage of 20.8. That all translates to him crushing baseballs.

I would grant the HR/FB ratio of 29.4 is due for a little bit of a downturn, but that would be evened out by more at bats this season to still end around 35-40 home runs. One of the most encouraging aspects just might be his numbers against lefty pitchers. I would expect them to be a little lower, but he managed a .255 average with a .891 OPS in 119 plate appearances. The strikeout rate was very high at 30.3 percent but you live with that if he can still play against lefties. All told, Muncy is being drafted far too late, has positional flexibility, and should flirt with 40 home runs. There’s very little reason not to take a chance on Muncy this year.

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