March Madness betting advice: 5 NCAA Tournament tips to take to the bank

March Madness betting tips you can take to the bank.

According to the American Gaming Association, more than 40 million people will fill out NCAA Basketball Tournament brackets this year, adding $4.6 billion to the $3.9 billion wagered on March Madness at sportsbooks, with bookies or online. If you are among this group, here are five things you absolutely need to know if you want to be successful betting on this year’s Big Dance:

1. Don’t play big underdogs to win outright

Everybody remembers last year when No. 16 UMBC beat No. 1 seed Virginia in the South Regional, but that was the first time that occurred — ever. Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 1 seeds are 135-1 in the first round.

What’s more, only three teams — Arizona (1993), Missouri (2012) and Virginia (last year) — that were favored by 20 points or more have been ousted from the tourney. Based on my database studies of all major college basketball games since 1993, such favorites have a win rate of 98.9 percent (although they cover the spread just 47.9 percent of the time).

This means that the chances of a No. 16 seed winning this year is about 4.5 percent — about the same as my dating success rate in high school, minus 4.5 percent.

2. Good teams win the championship

Yeah, I know this sounds obvious, yet often, in our zest to find Cinderella, we forget. But consider this: Over the past 78 years, only three teams with 10 previous losses or more — North Carolina State (1983), Villanova (1985) and Kansas (1988) — wound up cutting down the nets in March and no team with a win rate of less than 71 percent won the National Championship during that time.

This year, that eliminates 22 teams from championship consideration:

3. ‘Hot’ underdogs don’t cover

Granted, I’m speaking very broadly here, but it’s worth keeping in mind that “hot” underdogs tend to get over-bet. For example, teams with three or more consecutive straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) wins that are getting at least half a point from the bookmakers, have produced a loss of 9.2 percent since 1993 — more than double the loss on non-favorites as a whole. (This applies to all college basketball underdogs, not just those in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.)

Teams of this nature to keep an eye on this year include Saint Louis (four straight victories, including three in a row ATS), Gardner-Webb (5/5), Iowa State (3/3), Georgia State (5/5), Oregon (8/8) and the sizzling-hot Wofford (20/7).

Gardner-Webb, in particular, will be interesting to watch, as the Runnin’ Bulldogs are currently 24-point underdogs against the Cavaliers of Virginia, who must surely remember last year’s round one meltdown.

4. Underdogs that do cover

Related to the above, there are certain kinds of underdogs that have performed extremely well, historically speaking. For instance, teams with a Bet Rating (my own numerical assessment of value) of 1.50 or greater, that won their last game by five points or more (regardless of the spread), are great bets when underdogs by 20 points or more today.

Based on my database studies, these types of teams have covered 56 percent of the time and offered bettors a 7.5 percent Kelly advantage since 1993.

In the first round of this year’s NCAA Basketball Tournament, current qualifying teams include:

• Abilene Christian (+21.5 according to Odds Shark)
• Montana (+22.5)
• Iona (+26.5)

5. Confine your Final Four picks to the Top 9 seeds

Since the modern bracket system was implemented, no team seeded ninth or lower has ever made it to the championship game, much less won it.

In fact, 82.4 percent of the time, the teams battling for the National Championship were seeded 1-3 to start the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

So, if you’re looking for that dark horse champ among the lower seeds — don’t bother. Instead, concentrate on the top 12 seeds in the tournament.