March Madness betting: RJ Bell’s expert tips on filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket

Get all the tips and expert advice from RJ Bell so you are well-informed when it comes to filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket so you have bragging rights this March Madness.

When it comes to filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket, it’s easy to get paralysis by analysis as you try to get the perfect bracket. But forget about trying to be perfect. Just try to be the best in the pool so you can win your bracket, and hopefully, a little cash on the side too. It’s not too late to apply these expert tips and advice from pregame.com’s RJ Bell.

Duke is the overwhelming favorite, and you may be tempted to have Duke as your national champion pick in your bracket, but if you’re looking to make a wager, you may want to look elsewhere, because there’s no money backing the Blue Devils.

“Playing a favorite in futures is not going to be a great bet because that’s what the average person is doing and it’s kind of hard to win at sports betting unless you’re being contrarian,” Bell said. “I think that if you do like a favorite in the NCAA Tournament, a mechanical parley often is gonna pay better than the future odds.”

Duke is one of the hottest teams in the country after the return of Zion Williamson but they aren’t the only teams entering the Tournament with a lot of momentum behind them. Oregon, Auburn and Iowa State all come in after winning their conference tournaments after good seasons, but not great seasons. So is it smart to ride the wave of momentum? It’s a two-way street.

“I would say there are two answers,” Bell said. “The first consideration is when or what is the reason for their hotness. So for example, if they’ve been shooting the lights out, that’s something that tends to ebb and flow. So if a team is typically a 42 percent shooting team … they’re hitting 60 percent, I’m looking to go against that team because in, general, they’re overperforming for reasons that aren’t repeatable.”

“But, if it’s something that the hot streak feels like it is repeatable, that there’s a reason it would carry on, then I would say “Yes, embrace the streak.” If it’s something that’s driven by, quite frankly, luck. Which is often times going to be a shooting the lights out … which has an element of luck in it, I’m looking to fade those teams.”

Picking upsets is one of the more fun aspects of being a fan during March Madness. Brackets can be won and lost in the first weekend depending on how many of them you correctly pick. And there’s an insider’s tip you can use to help you keep your bracket intact through Saturday. All you have to do is look at the Vegas lines to frame your upset specials.

“Look at the handful of the smaller line among the 13’s and 14’s and pick among them,” Bell said when targeting upsets.

For instance, No. 13 Northeastern is a 10.5-point underdog vs. No. 4 Kansas and No. 13 UC Irvine is an 8.5-point underdog to No. 4 Kansas State.

“So to me for this year two of the ones we particularly like are as we said UC Irvine and Northeastern,” Bell said about his upset picks. “Yeah, they’d be upsets, but not crazy upsets.”

March Madness by the numbers

Let’s get into the math of it all. If you’re a casual college basketball fan who pays attention to March Madness or you only fill out a bracket to win your office or friends and family pool, this data is for you.

Round of 64 (records since 1985)

"TIP: Pick zero No. 1 or No. 2 seeds to lose.No. 16 seeds are 1 for 136. No. 15 seeds are 8 for 136.TIP: Pick at least one #13 or #14 seed to win.No. 13 and No. 14 seeds combined to win 18 percent of first round games.TIP: Don’t be shy picking upsets with No. 12-9 seeds.No. 12 seeds have won at least one game 26 of 30 years (no last year).No. 9 seeds have won half their games vs. No. 8 seeds."

In essence, the No. 1 and No. 2 teams get an automatic pass to the second round, identify one 13 or 14 seed (Northeastern, UC Irvine) as your upset special, pick at least one 12 seed and the 8 vs. 9 games is a toss-up so don’t agonize over picking those winners.

Round of 32 picks

"TIP: Advance No. 1 seeds into Sweet 16 in almost all cases.86 percent of No. 1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16.TIP: Advance one or more double-digit to Sweet 16.A double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 in 32 of 34 years.TIP: Pick at least one upset of a No. 2 or No. 3 seed.Only once in 34 years has all the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds made the Sweet 16.TIP: Don’t pick any seed worse than a No. 12 to advance to the Sweet 16.Only 9 of 544 teams (only 1.6 percent) advancing to Sweet 16 were seeded worse than No. 12 (none last three years)."

Just like the first, you can pretty much give the green light to the four No. 1 seeds. History tells you to pick at least one double-digit team to make the Sweet 16, but don’t feel pressure to go upset heavy. However, if you do, target a vulnerable No. 2 or No. 3 seed that could bow out. And while a team like UC Irvine or Northeastern might be strong upset plays in the opening round, abandon them in the Round of 32.

“Cinderella’s at the dance, but she has a curfew, Bell said”

Sweet 16 picks:

"TIP: Advance exactly three No. 1 seeds into the Elite 8.71 percent of No. 1 seeds make the Elite 8.(that’s a higher percentage than No. 5 seeds that win a single game!)TIP: Advance no team worse than a No. 11 seed into the Elite 8.26 seeds worse than No. 11 have made it the Sweet 16.but only one Elite 8 team (out of a total of 280) has been seeded worse than No. 11."

The Sweet 16 is where brackets can be won or lost. When you get this far, you want to start thinking about which of the No. 1 seeds will go down. Pick one to lose this round. This is also the time when Cinderella has her curfew and it’s time to go home. If you’re feeling a sleeper, it should be a team seeded No. 10 or lower.

Elite 8 picks:

"TIP: Advance exactly one or two No. 1 seeds to the Final Four.The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 27 of 34 years.TIP: Advance no double-digit seeds to the Final Four.Only five of 160 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than No. 9."

Earmark two No. 1 seeds to go to the Final Four. These should be the two teams you feel strongest about and have shown in the first few rounds to be a tough draw. And it’s time to say goodbye to Cinderella for good.

Final Four picks:

"TIP: Advance no team worse than a No. 6 seed to the Championship Game.Only two Championship Games have had any team worse than a No. 6 seed (in last 33 years).TIP: Don’t advance two No. 1 seeds to the Championship GameSince tournament seeding began in 1979 No. 1 seeds have played each other in the finals eight times in 40 years."

You’ve made it this far and if your bracket is still in good shape be sure to follow these tips so you can cut the nets down and win your pool. Top seeds prevail, don’t pick any team higher than a No. 6 seed to get to the Championship Game and don’t have a title game matchup of two No. 1 seeds.

Championship Game pick:

"TIP: Pick a No. 4 seed or better to win it all.29 of last 30 years the NCAA Champion has been a No. 4 seed or better."

It all comes down to this. For your national champion, make sure you’re picking a No. 1-4 seed. The time to get cute and ride an underdog is long over. Now is the time to ride the teams that have shown over the course of the season, conference tournaments and March Madness that they are the best.