March Madness 2019: Predicting the First Round upsets

CHICAGO, IL - MARCH 15: Ohio State Buckeyes forward Andre Wesson (24) looks on in action during a Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Michigan State Spartans on March 15, 2019 at the United Center in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

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CHARLOTTE, NC – MARCH 16: K.J. Maura #11 and teammate Jourdan Grant #5 of the UMBC Retrievers celebrate their 74-54 victory over the Virginia Cavaliers during the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Spectrum Center on March 16, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /

Upsets are the best part of March Madness, but which games will give us a shot at Cinderella magic in the First Round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament?

The 2018 NCAA Tournament featured perhaps the most historic upset in the history of March Madness. As the 16-seeded UMBC Retrievers entered their matchup against the No. 1 seed Virginia Cavaliers, No. 16 seeds had gone 0-135 in their previous chances to knock down one of the top dogs of the tournament. That, of course, all changed as Jairus Lyles and the Retrievers ran past Tony Bennett’s team in the First Round.

Considering that it took 136 tries for a 16-seed to knock off a 1-seed, it’s unlikely that we’re going to see that in March Madness anytime soon (although, you never know). One thing that well will certainly see, though, is upsets at other seed-lines, which happen year after year.

Looking back at the history of the NCAA Tournament, there have been eight instances where a 15-seed upset a No. 2 seed, the last coming in 2016 when Michigan State lost to Middle Tennessee. Meanwhile in the First Round, No. 14 seeds are 21-115, 13-seeds are 28-108, 12 seeds are 47-89, No. 11 seeds are 50-86, 10-seeds are 52-84 and No. 9 seeds have a perfect .500 record in the First Round.

Essentially, those records tell us what we already knew — they’re called upsets in March Madness for a reason. The lower seeds in these First Round matchups historically don’t have a great chance of winning, but they still happen year after year.

Whenever you’re filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket, though, it’s picking the correct upsets that’s the difficult part. You have to find the right teams to hitch your wagon to given the right situation. And that’s what we’re going to try and do here as we predict every upset in the First Round.

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