10 Fantasy Baseball Studs You Shouldn’t Overthink Drafting

The one surefire way to have your fantasy baseball season go right is to hit on your stud picks early in drafts and these are 10 Fantasy Baseball Studs to lean on in 2019!

It’s not a great feeling too spend a high pick on a player only to see him fail through a long six month season. In fantasy baseball, you really need those first few picks to be rock solid for you at the very least. Depending on when they go, you really need superstar level production. If you combine this list with the busts list that is out as well, it will hopefully provide you with a nice guide of the top 75-100 players that I do and don’t like for 2019. These Fantasy Baseball Studs are who I’m planning on building my team around if I can.

10. Alex Bregman, SS/3B/2B – Houston Astros

NFBC ADP – 13th overall 

2018 Stats – 705 plate appearances, .286 average, 31 home runs, 103 RBI, 10 stolen bases, .926 OPS, 13.6 percent walk rate, 12.1 percent strikeout rate

Bregman is going to be the highest drafted player on this list and he’s also one of the newest members of the $100 million contract club. He’s coming off a massive year and was handsomely rewarded. Given some of the injuries the Astros offenses suffered in 2018, you could have made a strong argument that he was the American League MVP and he did finish fifth in the voting. Considering Bregman set career highs in average, home runs, RBI, walks, OPS and ISO while lowering his strikeouts, it was an impressive season. George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa all played 140 games or fewer, making 2018 all the more impressive.

Putting those three players back in the lineup isn’t going to do anything but help Bregman this season. There are two major reasons I wanted to highlight him, however. The first one is he did have surgery in the offseason on his elbow. The good news is that it was arthroscopic surgery to clean up some loose bodies. That’s not terribly involved and he’s already back in action. Anything involving elbows can be scary for baseball players, but this seems like a fairly straightforward injury.

The second reason is Bregman and Javier Baez of the Cubs are going back to back in drafts. Both players fulfilled potential last season, both have multiple positions that they can play and both could be incredible this year. I’m not the biggest fan of Baez and could see him taking a major step backward this year. The metrics support the breakout of Bregman a little bit more to my eyes and if I have my choice of which player, I’d take Bregman every time.

9. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF – Chicago Cubs

NFBC ADP – 33rd overall, 5th 3B off the board if counting Javier Baez

2018 Stats – 457 plate appearances, .272 average, 13 home runs, 59 RBI, 2 stolen bases, .834 OPS, 10.5 walk percentage, 23.4 strikeout percentage 

Last season is going to be a season to forget for Bryant and with his career trajectory, it could be one of the worst years he ever has. He saw career lows basically across the board, and not only from the traditional stats perspective. Metrics like ISO, wOBA, HR/FB rate, fly ball rate and hard hit rate were all well below career normals. That can be easily traced to one thing and that was his shoulder injury that nagged him throughout the entire season.

Bryant is still just 27 years old and is coming into the season fully healthy. With the should injury behind him, there’s not much of a reason to think he wouldn’t return to his usually role of one of the big bats in the middle of the Cubs order. If he had been healthy in 2018, this would be a player that would be taken in the second round almost every single time. He’s a plus in average, home runs and even chips in some stolen bases, having swiped 28 over the past three healthy seasons.

Bryant could have fallen into a draft day bargain considering where he’s going. There’s no reason for him to not be considered an elite fantasy producer given his track record when healthy. It’s one thing if a player has a poor season with no explanation. I’m always willing to jump back in on one of the best players in fantasy when he’s going at a discount. That is the exact case with Bryant, who is just going far too low in drafts and is a stud that I trust.

8. Trevor Bauer, SP – Cleveland Indians

NFBC ADP – 33rd overall, 9th SP off the board 

2018 Stats -175.1 innings pitched, 2.21 ERA, 12-6 record, 1.09 WHIP, 11.34 K/9 

It’s hard to blame Bauer for not hitting 200 innings pitched last year because he lost part of his season to a stress fracture in his leg getting hit by a come back hit. Since that’s more of a freak injury, there’s every reason to think he could hit 200 innings this year and even though he’s coming off what could be considered a fluke season, I trust Bauer to be a top 10 starter this season.

One metric that some might hold over Bauer’s head is the HR/FB ratio because Bauer will almost surely see that regress this season. It was all the way down at 6.2 percent which translated to just 10 over the course of the season. Even if those come up a little bit, the ERA could still sit somewhere around 3.00. That would also lineup with his xFIP and SIERA being between 3.10 and 3.25, which is still perfectly fine. One of the reasons I believe in Bauer is because he developed a slider last season that seemed to be the key that unlocked everything. Not only did it totally change his pitch mix for the better, he only allowed a .124 average, .078 ISO and three home runs off 421 total sliders.

On top of that, Bauer himself says that he’s already developed another weapon for the 2019 season.

https://twitter.com/BauerOutage/status/1101636632262848512

According to Brooks Baseball, Bauer threw 201 change ups last year. If he’s developed it into a pitch he trusts even more after posting an average of .136 and a .068 ISO, Bauer is going to be extremely tough to deal with. All signs point to Bauer having another big season and I’m buying in even at an elevated draft cost. I personally think that he’s going to be the best fantasy pitcher for the Indians in 2019.

7. German Marquez, SP – Colorado Rockies

NFBC ADP – 82nd overall, 24th SP off the board 

2018 Stats – 196.0 innings pitched, 3.77 ERA, 14-11 record, 1.20 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 

Typically when a 23-year-old pitcher strikes out 230 batters in a season and has an ERA under 4.00 with the FIP, xFIP and SIERA that agrees it was legitimate, people would be falling all over themselves to draft that pitcher. Marquez is far from the normal pitcher because A. he pitches half of his season in Coors Field, which we are trained to despise and B. he does have significant splits that concern folks. I’m not saying they aren’t valid, but I’m trusting Marquez and drafting him at cost wherever I can.

It would be a little silly to ignore the Coors Field aspect of Marquez so let’s take a look at that. Last season was not exceptionally kind to him since he posted an ERA of 4.74 over 89.1 innings in 2018. If we check his game logs, most of the damage came from seven starts in the first half of the season where he gave up a total of 32 earned runs. In his other nine home starts, Marquez only surrendered 15 earned runs. To me, that suggests that he started to figure out how to pitch in Coors as he got experienced with the park.

The other major split that even I’m willing to concede I’m banking on getting better is versus left-handed hitters. Marquez really struggled with southpaws to the tune of a .286 average, .796 OPS and 15 homers given up. His fastball was the main culprit as lefties hit that pitch at a .311 clip and socked 11 homers. All that being said, there’s room for improvement in that facet of the game and we’re chasing the almighty strikeout with Marquez.

There are very few pitchers outside the very elite that can match the strikeout potential that Marquez carries into this season. Only six pitchers last year had more strikeouts than Marquez – Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin, Carlos Carrasco and Jacob deGrom. All of those pitchers are going at least 30 picks ahead of Marquez. I’m trusting the Colorado righty to shore up the weaknesses in his game and repeating (if not besting) his 2018 campaign.

6. Khris Davis, Utility/DH – Oakland A’s

NFBC ADP – 44th overall, 1st Utility/DH off the board

2018 Stats – 654 plate appearances, .247 average, 48 home runs, 123 RBI, 0 stolen bases, .874 OPS, 9.0 walk percentage, 26.8 strikeout percentage

It might not seem believable, but you can draft the player who has the most home runs in the majors over the past three seasons with a fourth round pick in a 12 team league. Khris Davis might not have the most “sizzle” in the first few rounds but he also seemingly has one of the most predictable outcomes of any player in that range, given his track record over the past three seasons. Davis has hit exactly .247 in four straight years, hit 40+ home runs in three straight, driven in at least 100 runs, an OPS of at least .830 and played in at least 150 games. That’s the definition of a trustworthy draft pick. He’s even off to a fast start with a home run in Japan.

Davis has been like clockwork for years now and it’s tough to find any reason he’s going so late in drafts. I suppose that you can argue owners are a little hesitant to fill their Utility slot so early with a player that they know will not gain any positional flexibility through the season. That’s fair, because having flexibility within your roster is one of the keys to making it through 162 games(including that championship week, right?). Know that Davis is stuck in one spot does slightly lower his appeal but this draft spot is egregious.

It will change now, but Vlad Guerrero Jr. was being drafted ahead of Davis. I never quite understood that because that was banking on Guerrero having no room for failure. You know exactly what you’re getting with Davis and pairing him with a couple of other high average bats that don’t have a ton of power make all the sense in the world. He even cut down on his strikeouts this past season. Take the small tradeoff in batting average and lock up one of the premier power hitters in the game.

5. Blake Treinen, RP – Oakland A’s

NFBC ADP – 63rd overall, 2nd RP off the board

2018 Stats – 80.1 innings pitched, 0.78 ERA, 38 saves, 0.83 WHIP, 11.2 K/9

In the effort of full disclosure, I don’t think I’m going to have a lot of shares of Treinen for the 2019 season. However, that has everything to do with my draft philosophy then how I feel about Treinen. He was lights out last year and has every reason to be a premier closer once again, even with some natural regression being assumed.

Treinen is not the typical closer for a couple of major reasons. The first is among relievers that are also have closing potential, only Josh Hader pitched more innings. That’s a major advantage against other relievers if you can accrue 15-20 more innings than other elite closers. The other major factor that separates Treinen from most of his colleagues is the fact he has a four pitch mix. Many elite closers have either two or three pitches that they turn too. Treinen having a solid four pitch mix does nothing but help him. It does make it a little easier to believe in his 2018 season, though there will be a step back taken by Treinen this year.

The ERA and WHIP were both unnaturally high and the ERA will definitely balloon after Treinen stranded 86 percent of the runners that did manage to get on base. Even if it rises up to the neighborhood of 2.50, Treinen will still be elite. The WHIP will also rise but the strikeout rate of 32 percent negates that aspect as well. The 18.2 percent swinging strike rate shows how dominant the pitch mix was and only Hader and Edwin Diaz had a higher percentage. The A’s have a way of being competitive almost every single year, and Treinen is one of the few relief pitchers that I trust this season.

4. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF – Kansas City Royals

NFBC ADP – 30th overall, third 2B off the board

2018 Stats – 707 plate appearances, .304 average, 12 home runs, 60 RBI, 45 stolen bases, .804 OPS, 8.6 walk percentage, 16.1 strikeout percentage

You do have to spend a higher pick to draft Merrifield, but I’m much more willing to spend that draft capital on him ahead of his teammate Adalberto Mondesi. Merrifield might be a little more boring since he likely will get beat in the stolen base category by about 20-25 if both players play the same amount of games. Having said that, Mondesi also has an absolutely frightening floor and I’m not sure that’s being accounted for with his ADP. Merrifield is the much stronger pick.

He did bloom later in his career than most but in his past two full seasons, Merrifield has hit at least .288, played at least 145 games, swiped 79 bases, accumulated at least an OPS of .784 and hit 31 total home runs. The power was down a little bit this past season with just a dozen bombs, but his average jumped up to help compensate for it. Merrifield is that perfect balance of every category that you need to succeed through the season. He’s a high average guy, gets on base at a very nice clip, doesn’t strikeout a ton, walks, steals bases and hits for just enough power. Really, what’s not to love from this pick?

The only real nitpick you can throw out there is the Royals lineup, and that’s a legitimate issue. With the loss of Salvador Perez for the season, the best bat remaining is likely Jorge Soler. While he did show some flashes last season before being derailed by injury, Soler as the main power/RBi bat isn’t ideal. The good news is Merrifield has the speed to help generate runs for himself on top of it so just some base hits might bring him home. Regardless, there’s no reason not to lock up Merrifield early in the draft.

3. Walker Buehler, SP – Los Angeles Dodgers

NFBC ADP – 38th overall, 12th SP off the board

2018 Stats – 137 innings pitched, 2.62 ERA, 8-5 record, 0.96 WHIP, 9.90 K/9 

I’m not sure Dodgers fans will like hearing this, but they need a new ace who can throw 200 innings. No disrespect to Clayton Kershaw and what he’s accomplished and how could he could be when he’s active this year but he’s not throwing 200 innings. He just completed his first 20 pitch session in three weeks and the Dodgers are going to baby their entire staff, especially Kershaw. Not only do they have a player ready to take the reins, he’s already proven himself to be ace caliber in the majors.

Buehler fulfilled every ounce of his promise in his first big league season and at 24 years old, looks primed for a huge year. One aspect that was impressive was the way he pitched in the postseason. The ERA doesn’t look great at 3.80 but much of that came off one big inning from the Braves lineup. After that, he responded with three good innings after that to stabilize the game a little bit. It would have been easy to crumble and give in, but Buehler showed some serious mental fortitude. The amount of innings pitched likely won’t cross 180 during the regular season, but I highly doubt we’ve seen the best of him yet as far as his ratios go either. He did pitch a total of 177 innings across his season last year, but the Dodgers are extremely cautious with their pitchers and have the luxury to do so.

Another nice factor to go with his(relative to other elite starting pitchers) low strikeout rate is a 50 percent ground ball rate. If hitters are either striking out or hitting ground balls, there’s a good chance any damage is mitigated through the game. If you can lock up close to 200 innings at a very good ERA, fantastic WHIP and solid strikeout numbers with room to improve, I think he’s worth a little bit of faith. Buehler is a great target if you miss on the upper echelon of aces or prefer to go pitching heavy.

2. Juan Soto, OF – Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP – 33rd overall, 13th OF off the board 

2018 Stats – 494 plate appearances, .292 average, 22 home runs, 70 RBI, 5 stolen bases, .923 OPS, 16.0 walk percentage, 20.0 strikeout percentage

Juan Soto still can’t legally buy a drink but he’s already in the elite of fantasy baseball and I’m not sure he’s going to be leaving it anytime soon. He flew through the minors, forcing his way to the Nationals lineup and then continued to tear up everything in sight. For a player that was just 19 years old at the time, he showed a rare combo of plate discipline, power and even chipped in a few steals. While there is chance at some type of sophomore slump, Soto is poised to firmly be inside the top 15 in outfield ranks at the end of the season.

Soto is a big boost in any type of OBP league as well, since he managed to find his way on base just a little over 40 percent of the time. He truly had one of the best rookie seasons we’ve ever seen, but since he didn’t have the built-in hype of a Ronald Acuna, I think he went slightly under the radar until the end of the year when people tarted adding everything up. There’s really not much he can’t do and that’s what you’re looking for in a pick this high, a player that can do it all. The O-Swing percentage(amount of swing on pitches outside the strike zone) of just 21.9 percent and the swinging strike percentage of just 7.9 really back up the walk numbers. He’s flat-out just got an incredible eye for pitching, even at his age.

One area that could propel him into the next level is his GB/FB ratio. He hit a ground ball over 53 percent of the time and didn’t quite hit 29 percent fly ball rate. If the fly balls rise almost at all, that brings more power potential into play. It’s fairly difficult to find a statistic that says “fluke” when looking at Soto. Even with Bryce Harper in Philly, the Nationals still have a solid lineup. Soto is going high but has my full trust and could be a top 10-12 player in 2020 drafts.

1. Gerrit Cole, SP – Houston Astros

NFBC ADP – 25th overall, 7th SP off the board 

2018 Stats – 200.1 innings pitched, 15-5 record, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 

There is one pitcher that I find myself gravitating towards in almost any draft that it makes sense to take him in and that is Gerrit Cole. He fulfilled his ace potential he’s had since day one last season, his first in Houston and was part of the reason the Astros got to the ALCS before bowing to the champion Red Sox. It was his first season in the American League so there could be a train of thought that the hitters could adjust to him this season but I’m not buying that. The biggest part of the reason is he stopped throwing his worst pitch.

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As is the case with basically all Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers, Cole threw a sinker around 15-18 percent of the time, depending on the handedness of the hitter in 2017. That really was a poor idea, because teams hit it at a .285 clip with a .212 ISO. Those numbers were easily the worse of his pitch mix and the Astros nixed it in 2018. Was that the only reason? Not at all, as Houston also coaxed Cole to increased spin rates on his pitches and emphasized his actual stuff(which is fairly nasty) instead of relying on sinkers and shifts. Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage has a lot of respect and has his strengths. I’m not convinced working with extremely talented pitchers is one of them. I mean, who knew a former first overall pick that throws gas could just strike guys out?

Ok, now that bitter Pirates fan is gone, Cole is in a perfect spot for a second straight monster season. Justin Verlander is quite the teammate to have been the ace and to continue to learn from, the Astros could threaten for 95-100 wins again, and Cole is smack in his prime. Houston knows how to get the best out of their staff and Cole is a firm top 5-10 option no matter what format you play in.

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