FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday, 3/21 – Big Men on Campus

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday, 3/21

Welcome back to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

My goal when I created the Breakdown was to make this an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

Last night got crazy (did you think it wouldn’t at this point), with winning GPP scores pushing 400 FD points or more. Harden, Irving, Embiid, Westbrook, and Lillard all had huge nights and a bunch of games went to overtime. The number of cheap plays we keep seeing due to injuries and rest is making it really easy to force studs into our lineups and at this point, it’s almost impossible to avoid the stars and scrubs roster builds.

As the NBA season winds down, I would encourage you to really take these first look articles with a grain of salt.  I do my best to try to anticipate what injuries and rest situations we might encounter each night, but in the final month of the season we are going to see a lot of players sit out and we aren’t always going to know who it will be until later in the evening.

Tonight we have 6-game main slate on FanDuel. As I’ve said before, I really love 6-8 game slates for NBA and I think we have a really compelling one tonight. At this point of the season I’ve given up on compiling an accurate injury report, so let’s jump right into the cash core today.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Nikola Jokic (10100)

The center position is loaded tonight (hence the name of the article today). I like all four of the top priced options, but for cash games, I’m going with Jokic. He’s a good bit cheaper than Drummond and Towns with just as much safety and upside. The matchup against the Wizards is elite for the big man and I trust the Joker a tad more than Rudy Gobert who’s a few hundred cheaper against Atlanta.

Marvin Bagley III (6600)

Only a year ago Bagley was suiting up for the Blue Devils in the NCAA tournament.  At this point in the season, the rookie has shown he has an elite offensive arsenal and his 1.1. fantasy point per minute rate reflects that. His minutes are slowly trending back up over his first four games back from injury to where he played 29 on Tuesday against the Nets. Tonight, I think he sees about 28-30 minutes again and should do whatever he wants against the Mavericks who are tanking their season at this point.

Bradley Beal (10300)

I’m well aware that Beal played 43 minutes in an overtime game last night against the Bulls, however his minutes are locked in around 40 every night and he’s not relying solely on his jump shot for fantasy points, as he has seen a major boost in his assists, boards, and defensive stats in the second half of the season. I prefer him to Luka Doncic tonight as the pay up at shooting guard because I think Beal’s minutes are safer, and I don’t trust Luka’s coach to give him full run against the Kings.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Karl-Anthony Towns (11500)

The big KAT is the most expensive center and player on the entire slate. For that reason, he could also be the lowest owned in tournaments and I’m going to want some shares. I already mentioned I love all four top-priced centers today and I’ve never really seen a slate where this many centers had amazing matchups before. Maybe go to a utility spot next year, FanDuel?

But back to KAT. The real appeal here is the Wolves are without Teague and Rose again and we’ve seen KAT have dominate games in that scenario. Charlotte has no big men that have any chance of slowing him down either.

Trae Young (7600)

Ricky Rubio is the safer cash play on the other side of this matchup, but he has seen his minutes reduced lately and I’m not sure he plays enough tonight to make tournament value. Meanwhile, we get a chance to roster Young for the cheapest tag we’ve seen in weeks. He’s got a ton of upside here as he continues to play well down the stretch and is coming off a nice double-double against the Rockets (also a tough matchup). The Jazz are a good defensive team, but Rubio is not a great defender and I think Trae is likely to get his tonight in a game that I expect the Hawks to keep close.

Jabari Parker (6700)

The price keeps creeping up on Parker, but I’m going to continue to roll him out there. He is the second main weapon on offense for the Wizards after Beal, and with Trevor Ariza going down last night I expect Parker to soak up a bunch of those minutes on the wing. With 30+ minutes Parker goes from just being a solid cash play to being a potentially elite GPP play tonight.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Tyreke Evans (4600)

If Darren Collison sits out tonight against the Warriors, you can look to Corey Joseph at point guard (which is what I did on Tuesday) or you can grab Tyreke at a weak SF position today and hope he does what he did off the bench last game (19-8-7 in 29 minutes). Evans closed the game down the stretch and would be in a great spot again tonight if Collison misses.

Josh Okogie (4300) and Tyus Jones (5300)

Both of these T-Wolves young guards are seeing heavy minutes as Minnesota is really banged up in the backcourt. Jones has been a solid cash game play all year-long when Teague and Rose were out, but it’s Okogie who has finally emerged lately with some consistency, averaging 33 FD points over his last two games.

Wes Matthews (4400)

Monte Morris is also right in this price range with Matthews and Okogie, but I prefer the latter two as they both have 30+ minutes guaranteed to give them a pretty solid floor. Matthews has hit 21+ FD points in four straight and is really nothing more than a cash game punt at this stage of his career.

Dario Saric (4000)

Taj Gibson is questionable tonight, which means Dario could be asked to play more minutes than his usual 20-24. He played 27 minutes against the Warriors last game and put up 22 FD points. The matchup is better tonight against Charlotte, and 25 FD points is all I’m really looking for at this price.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings

What some players find really helpful are position rankings. I will rank my favorite players at each position based on their upside and point-per-dollar viability for cash and GPP.  Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” but it’s not an exhaustive list of my player pool by any means.

Point Guard

1. Ricky Rubio
2. Trae Young
3. Tyus Jones

Shooting Guard

1. Bradley Beal 
2. Donovan Mitchell
3. Andrew Wiggins

Small Forward

1. Jabari Parker
2. Joe Ingles
3. Tyreke Evans (if Collison is out)

Power Forward

1. Marvin Bagley III
2. Paul Millsap
3. Bobby Portis

Center (I have to include all 4!)

1. Nikola Jokic
2. Karl-Anthony Towns
3. Andre Drummond
4. Rudy Gobert

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a cash lineup. I always plug in my cash game core first and then try to lock in some of the best mid-tier value at each position. You’ll see some of my value plays in there as well, especially the two cheap T-Wolves guards who continue to play big minutes. Josh Jackson makes the cut, too, but wasn’t mentioned earlier in the article. I think he has a solid floor for that price and should continue to see big minutes off the bench for the Suns.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are always pivots that need to be made as the slate unfolds during the day!

PG: Tyus Jones (5300)

PG: Ricky Rubio (6600)

SG: Bradley Beal (10300)

SG: Josh Okogie (4300)

SF: Tyreke Evans (4600)

SF: Jabari Parker (6700)

PF: Marvin Bagley III (6600)

PF: Josh Jackson (5400)

C: Nikola Jokic (10100)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests