Welcome back readers of FantasyCPR, it’s March and it time for College Basketballs favorite season. Where millions of people fill out brackets for money against a group of their friends, co-workers, or strangers in something that they haven’t followed all year long.
This piece is centered around an analytical article of how to construct your bracket while factoring in your opponents picks to aim for the top of your tournament pool. This article will provide in-depth content, a long with a few key lines to look at for first round upsets.
Best of luck to those that took the time to read the article, lets dive into the information:
ESPN Tournament Challenge Information:
This stat is based around the millions of brackets that are currently filled out that entered a bracket on ESPN. ESPN then calculated how far each team is predicted to go based on the public’s perception. (Example: Duke is predicted to win the National Championship by 38.5% of people filling out brackets). This will help you identify what you’re facing in your pool before anything is finalized.
If you want to compete with the writers of Fantasy CPR and other readers just like you, join the group here: http://fantasy.espn.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2019/en/group?groupID=3375193
National Champions
1.) Duke – 38.5%
2.) North Carolina – 15.3%
3.) Gonzaga – 8.5%
4.) Virginia – 7.6%
5.) Kentucky – 5.1%
6.) Michigan State – 4.9%
7.) Tennesse – 4.4%
8.) Michigan – 3.3%
9.) Kansas – 0.9%
10.) Texas Tech – 0.8%
What does this information do for you? This tells us that 38.5% of the brackets filled out on ESPN has Duke winning the title. Most bracket pools award about 32x the amount of points if you correctly select the champion compared to selecting a first round game correct. When in large field bracket challenges, it’s important to differentiate your bracket. Not saying not to pick one of those 10-teams, because more than likely one of those 10-teams is going to win, however, selecting Duke to win, you better make sure the rest of the bracket you pick is as nearly perfect as you can possibly have it because likely 38.5% of the field will also have Duke winning it all.
Advancing to the Final 4:
1.) Duke – 70.5%
2.) North Carolina -56.5%
3.) Gonzaga – 42.3%
4.) Virginia 42.1%
5.) Tennessee – 32.1%
6.) Michigan – 26.3%
7.) Kentucky – 22.1%
8.) Michigan State -17.2%
9.) Texas Tech – 9.9%
10.) Florida State – 9.1%
70% of brackets have Duke advancing to the Final 4, as Duke is the best team in the country but if you are confident that they are get eliminated earlier you have a great chance to gain huge leverage on the field. A little surprised about the Tennessee love that is going on, I am staying away from them this year. Massive trap team. Personally believe that both Duke and North Carolina are going to coast to the Final 4. Sometimes there’s no leverage.
Trendy Upset pick: (Lowest seeds advancing to the Sweet 16)
1.) Oregon – 18.2%
2.) Murray State -13.8%
3.) Florida – 9.2%
4.) Ohio State – 9.2%
5.) Saint Mary’s – 7.6%
6.) Belmont – 7.6%
7.) UC Irvine – 6.2%
8.) New Mexico State -6.0%
9.) Yale – 5.7%
10.) Liberty – 5.4%
These are the percentage of brackets with the teams above listed to advance to the sweet 16. Definitely don’t have to fade all of them, but I will not go near Oregon/ Murray State/ Ohio State/ Florida advancing to the sweet 16 in my bracket just trying to be different. One or two of these teams will likely make the sweet 16 this season.
Trendy Upset Pick: (Winning in the First round 11-seed or under)
1.) Murray State – 42.2%
2.) Oregon – 39.9%
3.) Ohio State -28.7%
4.) Liberty – 25.2%
5.) Belmont – 24.8%
6.) Saint Mary’s – 23.5%
7.) UC Irvine – 19.7%
8.) ASU/ SJ – 19.6%
9.) New Mexico – 18.4%
10.) Yale – 16.3%
Basically in order to be different yes the 5 v. 12 upset is likely going to happen, especially since it did not happen last year but I will likely be picking Marquette to beat Murray State, and Wisconsin to beat Oregon to be against the trendy upset and look for another 5 v. 12 upset that I like.
Fun Facts to remember:
Final Four Combined Seeds by year: (Number is gotten by adding all the seeds of the final four teams together. Four being the lowest number possible)
2018: 16
2017: 12
2016: 15
2015: 10
2014: 18
2013: 18
2012: 9
2011: 24
2010: 13
2009: 7
2008: 4
Final Four Appearances by Seed Over the last 10 years:
1 Seed: 18
2 Seed: 7
3 Seed: 4
4 Seed: 4
5 Seed: 2
7 Seed: 3
8 Seed: 2
9 Seed: 1
10 Seed: 1
11 Seed: 2
It’s been 10 years since all four number one seeds have made the final four and 7 out of the last 10 years the teams seeding has exceeded double digits. Every year is different but definitely something to consider when choosing your Cinderella.
And as you can see from the information from above, there have been 40 Final Four teams in the last 10 years and 18 of those teams have been 1 seed. Only 4 cases in the last year has less than an 8-seed made the Final 4.
This is a numbers game folks, I hope this helps you construct your bracket and leads to you winning your pool!